Why Do European Firms Go Public?

We survey chief financial officers (CFOs) from 12 European countries regarding the determinants of going public and exchange listing decisions. Most CFOs identify enhanced visibility and financing for growth as the most important benefits of an IPO, but other motivations for IPOs differ significantly across firms, countries, and legal systems. We find strong support for the IPO theories that emphasise financial and strategic considerations, such as enhanced reputation and credibility, and financial flexibility as a major advantage of an IPO. At the same time, we find moderate support for theories that focus on exit strategy, balance of power with creditors, external monitoring, and merger and acquisition motivations. European CFOs' views on the major benefits of an IPO are generally similar to those of US managers as reported in Brau and Fawcett (2006) , but differ significantly on outside monitoring; outside monitoring is considered a major benefit by European CFOs but a major cost by US CFOs. Our evidence suggests that the decision to go public is a complex one, and cannot be explained by one single theory because firms seek multiple benefits in going public. These motivations are influenced by the firm's ownership structure, size and age as well as by the home country's institutional and regulatory environment.     

Integral and differential equations for the moments of multistate models in health insurance

The moments of the random future liabilities of health insurance policies are key quantities for studying distributional properties of the future liabilities. Assuming that the randomness of the future health status of individual policyholders can be described by a semi-Markovian multistate model, integral and differential equations are derived for moments of any order and for the moment generating function. Different representations are derived and discussed with a view to numerical solution methods.     

A Theoretical Analysis of the Influence of Money Injections on Risk Taking in Football Clubs

This paper analyzes the adverse incentive effects produced by money injections of benefactors [sugar daddies (SD)]. We show that the existence of a SD induces the club to choose a riskier investment strategy and the more the SD commits to bailout the club, the more the clubs’ optimal level of riskiness increases. Moreover, a private SD bails out the club less often than a public SD. Our model further shows that a ‘too‐big‐to‐fail’ phenomenon exists because it is optimal to always bailout a club if its market size is sufficiently large.     

OVERINVESTMENT IN TEAM SPORTS LEAGUES: A CONTEST THEORY MODEL

This paper applies contest theory to provide an integrated framework of a team sports league and analyzes the competitive interaction between clubs. We show that dissipation of the league revenue arises from 'overinvestment' in playing talent as a direct consequence of the ruinous competitive interaction between clubs. This overinvestment problem increases if the discriminatory power of the contest function increases, revenue-sharing decreases, and the size of an additional exogenous prize increases. We further show that clubs invest more when they play in an open league compared with a closed league. Moreover, the overinvestment problem within open leagues increases with the revenue differential between leagues.     

Valuing Companies with Cash‐Flow@Risk

The classic DCF approach to capital budgeting—the one that MBA students in the world's top business schools have been taught for the last 30 years—begins with the assumption that the corporate investment decision is “independent of” the financing decision. That is, the value of a given investment opportunity should not be affected by how a company is financed, whether mainly with debt or with equity. A corollary of this capital structure “irrelevance” proposition says that a company's investment decision should also not be influenced by its risk management policy—by whether a company hedges its various price exposures or chooses to leave them unhedged. In this article, the authors—one of whom is the CFO of the French high‐tech firm Gemalto—propose a practical alternative to DCF that is based on a concept they call “cash‐flow@risk.” Implementation of the concept involves dividing expected future cash flow into two components: a low‐risk part, or “certainty equivalent,” and a high‐risk part. The two cash flow streams are discounted at different rates (corresponding to debt and equity) when estimating their value. The concept of cash‐flow@risk derives directly from, and is fully consistent with, the concept of economic capital that was developed by Robert Merton and Andre Perold in the early 1990s and that has become the basis of Value at Risk (or VaR) capital allocation systems now used at most financial institutions. But because the approach in this article focuses on the volatility of operating cash flows instead of asset values, the authors argue that an internal capital allocation system based on cash‐flow@risk is likely to be much more suitable than VaR for industrial companies.     

The OECD's new global model

This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the SAPIEN 3 TAVI valve compared with surgery in intermediate-risk patients

Objective: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become the therapy of choice for treating severe aortic stenosis in patients at high-risk for surgery or where it is considered too risky to attempt. This uptake varies across geographies however, and its cost or value has frequently been cited as the reason for this. We sought to evaluate the potential cost and clinical impact of TAVI in intermediate risk patients from a French collective perspective.

Materials and methods: The analysis was performed using a novel Markov model with data derived from the PARTNER II randomized controlled trial for survival, clinical event rates, and quality-of-life. The simulated time horizon was 15?years, costs were from French sources and presented in 2016 Euros. Discounting of all outcomes was at 4% annually and the effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).

Results: In comparison to surgery, TAVI resulted in improved clinical outcomes (life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and lower costs over a lifetime time horizon. The base case results showed increases of 0.42?years and 0.41 QALYs with lifetime cost savings of €439 for TAVI compared to surgery. PSA results showed a >50% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at €0 willingness-to-pay and a 100% likelihood at ～€15,000.

Limitations: Clinically, survival projections are based on limited follow-up data and introduce uncertainty into the outcomes from the model. Economically, procedure costs are derived from a heterogeneous mix of patient risk groups, although this is much more likely to bias against TAVI and under-estimate overall cost savings.

Conclusions: In our analyses of intermediate risk patients, TAVI is associated with superior clinical outcomes compared to surgery and is cost saving. It could be expected that cost savings are conservative and likely to increase over time.     

Optimal payoffs under state-dependent preferences

Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy is in a downturn, and this feature is often at odds with the needs of many investors. We introduce a framework for portfolio selection within which state-dependent preferences can be accommodated. Specifically, we assume that investors care about the distribution of final wealth and its interaction with some benchmark. In this context, we are able to characterize optimal payoffs in explicit form. Furthermore, we extend the classical expected utility optimization problem of Merton to the state-dependent situation. Some applications in security design are discussed in detail and we also solve some stochastic extensions of the target probability optimization problem.     

Gold rush fever in business cycles

A flexible price model of the business cycle is proposed, in which fluctuations are driven primarily by inefficient movements in investment around a stochastic trend. A boom in the model arises when investors rush to exploit new market opportunities even though the resulting investments simply crowd out the value of previous investments. A metaphor for such profit driven fluctuations are gold rushes, as they are periods of economic boom associated with expenditures aimed at securing claims near new found veins of gold. An attractive feature of the model is its capacity to provide a simple structural interpretation to the properties of a standard consumption and output Vector Autoregression.     

Tax Pot Episodes in OECD Countries

How to use an unexpected increase in tax revenues (tax pots) was an important issue in most OECD countries in the second half of the 1990s, the question being more precisely what to do with those windfall revenues: decrease taxes, reduce debt, increase expenditures? In this paper, we study such tax pot episodes in OECD countries over the past 40 years. To that end, we propose a definition of a fiscal pot episode. Once identification is complete, we examine the macroeconomic environment within in those episodes, the way this surplus of revenues has been used, and the degree of success in reducing public debt and in fostering growth. As in the fiscal adjustment literature, we then obtain relatively orthodox conclusions about the use of windfall tax revenues, as it is generally better for future growth and debt level to use the money to reduce expenditures and taxes. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 436–461. University of Toulouse (IDEI), Toulouse, France; and University of Toulouse (GREMAQ, LEERNA, and IDEI), Toulouse, France, Institut Universitaire de France, and CEPR. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E6, H6.