Ukrainian gas transit game

This paper investigates the origins and reasons for the termination of the Russian natural gas flow from Russia to Europe through Ukraine in January 2009. It discusses the strategic interaction of the three players (Russia, Ukraine and the European Union) based on the dynamics of losses from confrontation. The objective is to interpret the situation in a stylized way and to derive outcomes using calibrated parameters for costs and benefits of the players. We show that the stakes are high for both Russia and Ukraine in choosing to follow their preferred strategies, as both countries would sustain moderate losses during the initial period of conflict. Meanwhile, Europe’s lack of reserves makes it less prepared for the energy deficit than Ukraine and Russia, causing wider and earlier suffering for European countries dependent on Russian gas. Therefore, the European Union has a strong incentive to intervene in the conflict. Its actions during the January confrontation between Ukraine and Russia included extortion and bribery, all of which affected the outcome of the conflict.     

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets. Spatial Economic Analysis. Local economic growth tends to affect neighbourhood house prices unevenly. It has been observed that prime locations experience price hikes far in excess of the surrounding local area. Yet, this phenomenon is not well captured by existing economic models. This research provides a model of spatial and temporal interactions between housing and employment markets. The results show that rapid growth of employment centres increases house prices in neighbouring locations even after adjusting for fundamentals. It is concluded that spatial clustering of companies creates an option value for existing and potential employees that goes beyond ease of access for commuting purposes.     

Revival of “inward-oriented development”?

Criticism within the Catholic churches of Latin America of the IMF and its approach to the development problems of the sub-continent has been persistently increasing in recent years. The measures imposed by the IMF, especially those following the payments crisis of 1982 have met with growing opposition. The impression that the churches have adopted a Marxist line on this issue is, however, a superficial one which needs to be examined more closely in the context of the dependencia theory and of recent economic developments in Latin America.     

Large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems

Joint two-step estimation procedures which have the same asymptotic properties as the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator are developed for the final equation, transfer function and structural form of a multivariate dynamic model with normally distributed vector-moving average errors. The ML estimator under fixed and known initial values is obtained by iterating the procedure until convergence. The asymptotic distribution of the two-step estimators is used to construct large sample testing procedures for the different forms of the model.     

Efficient introduction of Pigovian taxes

This paper considers the dynamics of introducing pollution taxes when firms have to invest into abatement facilities. This accumulation of abatement capital, however, proceeds sluggishly. Therefore, actual policy proposals of pollution taxes consider a phased introduction. This paper considers the normative aspects of such a policy. More precisely, it proves that pollution taxes should be introduced radically rather than gradually.     

A chance-constrained multiobjective model for mental health services planning.

Mental health services planning, and particularly the planning for deinstitutionalization, is a very complex problem. This paper suggests a chance-constrained goal programming (CCGP) approach to mental health services planning. The CCGP approach is based on the sequential solution of a linear programming formulation, allowing efficient solution of large-scale planning problems using commercially available linear programming computer codes. The procedure is demonstrated with a case example and implementation of the approach is discussed.