OPEC’s Strategies

This paper investigates rationale explanations of OPEC??s strategies. Accounting for market characteristics in particular the sluggishness of demand and supply allows to explain price jumps as rational OPEC strategies from a narrow economic perspective (up and down) as well as from political objectives (at least up) due to the political payoff from standing up against the ??West??. Although the temptation to accrue this political payoff was and remains high, the narrow economic profit motive coupled with an imperfect cooperation among OPEC members explains past price volatility and high prices much better than the usual reference to political events. A more specific prediction is that OPEC will switch back to setting prices since the current quantity strategy encourages oil importing countries to appropriate rents in particular in connection with the need to mitigate global warming.     

Optimal Stabilization Policy Under Governmental Risk Aversion

Governmental stabilization policies take account of the underlying risk aversion of its voters. A utility function for the government is defined, one which includes variances of national income changes with respect to its policy instruments—here the budget variable, the bond rate of interest, and the currency-exchange rate. The consequence of this for the optimal set of policies is a target level of national income less than what a risk-neutral government aims at. This applies to an open economy when this is a key-currency country, as it need attend to balance-of-payments effects only insofar as they affect national income. The non-key-currency country, by contrast, must take account directly of balance-of-payments effects and their variance, so it reaches a lower level of utility than the key-currency country.     

Perspektiven zum Bürgergeld

Wirtschaftsdienst - The Hartz IV labour market reform in 2005 triggered a substantial reduction in unemployment in Germany. At the same time, it reduced social welfare for the long-term unemployed...     

Family business goal formation: a literature review and discussion of alternative algorithms

Management Review Quarterly - Goals represent an organization’s desired outcomes, and family businesses are known to pursue multiple goals, which commonly include both financial and...     

Rentenreform — mit welchem Fokus?

The demographic imbalance is aggravating, and by 2060 the old-age dependency ratio will double to approximately 70%. This development has consequences for the state pension system: growing contribution rates to social security coupled with lower pension levels, but at the same time a higher retirement age. The German pension scheme is mandatory for all wage and salary earners, but since 2001, no reasonable indicator for measuring the pension level exists any more. As a consequence of this, old-age pension has lost its traditional function as a replacement for earnings. The recent pension reforms have dropped the pension level sharply. Further reductions have been announced with the consequence of increasing old age poverty. Against this background it is proposed to raise the pension level so that the pensioners can maintain their standard of living. But any pension reform involves issues of distribution between and often also within generations, which cannot be addressed without explicit equity criteria. Some authors consider the past reforms as a mistake, others suggest adjustments.     

Das Securities Market Programme — viele Vorteile für den Euroraum

The Eurosystem’s Securities Market Programme (SMP,) the purchase of government bonds of euro area countries strongly affected by the crisis, started in 2010 and ended in 2012. The SMP benefited all parties concerned – the Eurosystem, all euro area countries and the crisis countries. The positive experience with the SMP can be replicated in the private sector with the creation of an exchangetraded fund (ETF), a Smart Beta ETF - SMP Fund. Like the SMP, the SMP Fund would buy government bonds, according to the ECB capital key. As an ETF, the SMP Fund would have low costs. Profits above the German Bund benchmark would be shared: 80% to investors, 10% to the SMP Fund and 10% to advisers who recommend the purchase. The related risks would be reduced by the diversification of the SMP Fund, the financing mechanisms of the euro area, especially the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) and the banking union. The SMP Fund could support the euro area fiscal capacity and the EU capital markets union. Past and future SMP profits create a fiscal capacity for the euro area with an initial amount of 50 billion Euro.     

The premiss-based approach to judgment aggregation

In the framework of judgment aggregation, we assume that some formulas of the agenda are singled out as premisses, and that both Independence (formula-wise aggregation) and Unanimity Preservation hold for them. Whether premiss-based aggregation thus defined is compatible with conclusion-based aggregation, as defined by Unanimity Preservation on the non-premisses, depends on how the premisses are logically connected, both among themselves and with other formulas. We state necessary and sufficient conditions under which the combination of both approaches leads to dictatorship (resp. oligarchy), either just on the premisses or on the whole agenda. Our analysis is inspired by the doctrinal paradox of legal theory and is arguably relevant to this field as well as political science and political economy. When the set of premisses coincides with the whole agenda, a limiting case of our assumptions, we obtain several existing results in judgment aggregation theory.     

Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform – an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach

The purpose of this article is to quantify the employment effects of the recent German welfare reform. The key element of this reform was to merge the coexisting transfer systems Social Assistance (SA) and Unemployment Assistance (UA) into one unified benefit (Arbeitslosengeld II – ALG II). We also consider a second reform scenario that is intended to further improve the labour supply incentives of low-skilled workers. Our methodological contribution is to use an integrated CGE-microsimulation model. In adopting such an approach, we are able to combine the advantages of microsimulation studies by accounting for the large amount of heterogeneity in terms of households’ preferences and budget constraints with the advantages of an applied general equilibrium model. The latter permits us to identify potential general equilibrium repercussions through changes in wages and unemployment. The simulations indicate that the introduction of ALG II results in a negligible increase in employment of only 45?000 individuals. In contrast, a cut in benefit levels combined with a decrease in transfer withdrawal is shown to produce somewhat larger employment effects of about 190?000 individuals.     

Financial Attitudes in Family Firms: The Moderating Role of Family Commitment

This study investigates how family commitment moderates whether and how financial knowledge, positive experience with debt suppliers, and economic goal orientation affect owner–managers' attitudes toward debt financing in family firms. Using a sample of 280 German family firms, we find significant relationships between both financial knowledge and positive experience with debt suppliers and owner–managers' financial attitudes toward debt. Our findings show that family commitment moderates these relationships such that high family commitment increases the impact of prior experience with debt suppliers, though the effect of economic goal orientation is lowered and reversed. Overall, we contribute to research on financial decision making, capital structure, and social capital in family firms.