Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Forecasting Prices at the Dutch Flower Auctions

Prices at the Dutch flower auctions are extremely volatile. Price changes of +/-20 per cent one week to the next represents a normal event, and +/-50 per cent is not uncommon. Since production planning in the flower business offers a complicated variation over the Newsboy Problem, good price forecasts would improve decision making on space allocation; what species to plant; the timing of harvesting, etc. This paper analyses weekly prices for three major species, i.e., roses, chrysanthemums and carnations, 1993–1996. We find that there are strong calendar regularities particularly for roses and chrysanthemums. Establishing a model in which we combine information on seasonal regularities and autoregressive price patterns, we manage to explain a substantial part of the short-term price variability for all three species. The model is tested in an out-of-sample dynamic forecasting experiment during the first 35 weeks of 1997.     

Effect of Normative and Affective Aspects on Willingness to Pay for Domestic Food Products—A Multiple Price List Experiment

There is limited knowledge about which factors underlie consumers’ preferences for domestic food products. We used a non-hypothetical multiple-price list experiment to investigate the effect of affective (product-related emotions) and normative (consumer ethnocentrism and subjective norms) factors on consumer willingness to pay for domestic food products. A total of 166 Croatian consumers were given a choice between domestic and foreign food products with different price premiums for domestic food. The results indicate that consumers are willing to pay a premium for both low- and high-involvement domestic food products. Consumer willingness to pay for domestic products is influenced by ethnocentrism, product-related emotions, and sociodemographic variables, but not by social norms.     

Resistance to Change in the Corporate Elite: Female Directors’ Appointments onto Nordic Boards

In this empirical study, we investigate the variation in firms’ response to institutional pressure for gender-balanced boards, focusing specifically on the preservation of prevailing practices of director selection and its impact on the representation of women on the board of directors. Using 8 years of data from publicly listed Nordic corporations, we show societal pressure to be one of the determinants of female directorship. Moreover, in some corporations, the director selection process may work to maintain “a traditional type of board”. In such boards, demographic diversity among male members appears to be associated with a lower share of female directors, although we cannot establish wether this reflects discrimination or a desire to maintain critical competencies. With this paper we add to the theoretical understanding of the factors underlying female board appointments by adopting an institutional theory lens to study female board representation. Viewing the demands for gender-balanced boards in terms of societal pressure for the de-institutionalization of the prevailing norms and practices, we highlight preferences for maintaining established practices as a potentially important barrier to institutional change. On these grounds, we conjecture on the relationship between the gender diversity of boards and other diversity dimensions. We suggest that a board room gender quota (if implemented) is supplemented by policies to ensure the transparency of board changes, in order to prevent the crowding out of other diversity dimensions.     

Organic‐ and Animal Welfare‐labelled Eggs: Competing for the Same Consumers?

To understand the market for sustainable foods, it is important to allow for heterogeneous preferences. However, most studies of consumer preferences for sustainable foods only investigate average consumer preferences. They do not take into account that some consumer segments attempt to purchase as much sustainable food as possible, others are almost indifferent to the notion of sustainable food, and still others consider sustainable food a complete hoax. The aim of this study is to explore the preferences for various types of premium eggs across three consumer segments. We conduct a choice experiment including 900 Norwegian consumers and perform a behavioural segmentation based on the frequency of organic food purchase. We find that the segment purchasing the most organic food is, as expected, willing to pay a significant premium for organic eggs over eggs displaying only enhanced animal welfare. However, most consumers, who only occasionally purchase organic products, are unwilling to pay more for organic eggs than for enhanced animal welfare eggs, suggesting diminishing marginal utility for additional attributes. We find that a third consumer segment attempts to avoid organic eggs, even when they cost the same as other eggs. Our findings suggest that organic products will be unsuccessful in acquiring a larger share of the market as long as most consumers are unwilling to pay a premium for organic products with all their cost increasing sustainable attributes over products that have only a single sustainable attribute, in our case enhanced animal welfare.     

Test‐Retesting in Experimental Valuation of Perishable Food Products: Unstable Individual Bids and Reliable Market Demand

One important property of a preference measure is its reliability. In this article, we explore the reliability of experimental auctions in measuring the market demand for five types of fish. We use the test‐retest method to compare demand curves from two Becker–DeGroot–Marschak experiments with the same 116 participants conducted 7 months apart in time. The individual bids are not stable for these perishable products, but the distributions of the individual bids are stable. We find that the unsystematic individual variations cancel out in the aggregation of bids in a typical sample size for experimental valuation studies. Our results suggest that experimental auctions provide reliable market demand estimates even though the individual bids may change substantially over time.     

Adapting to survive: The case of Danish employers' organisations

Scholars often characterise Danish employers' organisations (EOs) as relatively stable, with a continuing role in the coordination of industrial relations and corporatist policymaking. This article shows that, beneath surface stability, Danish EOs have significantly adapted structurally and functionally to survive environmental pressures. However, rather than converging onto a liberal market trajectory, we find that Danish EOs have layered new functions onto traditional collective functions. We also find significant variations in functional adaptation depending on the employer constituencies' exposure to international competition and position in value chains. We argue that these adaptations imply that the provision of collective goods, especially in collective bargaining, is no longer sufficient for the survival of EOs.     

The dark side of leisure: obsessive passion and its covariates and outcomes

The present paper challenges the notion that engagement in leisure activities is exclusively conducive to well‐being. By applying the Dualistic Model of Passion in a leisure context on 467 participants, the measurement of obsessive passion for a leisure activity was related to indicators of ill‐being and unrelated to general well‐being. In Study 1, obsessive passion for a leisure activity was associated with activity addiction, escapism engagement, and intrapersonal conflicts. In Study 2, obsessive passion was negatively related to basic need satisfaction in activity engagement as well as positively related to negative affective outcomes from activity engagement. We argue that the present findings may lead towards a broader understanding of motivation and outcomes in leisure activities.     

Willingness to Pay versus Expected Consumption Value in Vickrey Auctions for New Experience Goods

Over the past two decades, Vickrey auctions have been widely used to elicit willingness to pay for new food products. This article shows that in a multiperiod context, it can be optimal for consumers to bid higher than the expected consumption value for a new experience good to obtain information about how the new good fits into their preference set. The degree of uncertainty about the consumption value, the purchasing frequency, and expected future market prices affect both the expected value of the quality information and the subgame perfect bidding strategy in Vickrey auctions for new experience goods.     

Differences in technology transfer between science-based and development-based industries: Transfer mechanisms and barriers

Although several studies in the wide body of literature on technology transfer have hinted at differences across industries, this still remains an understudied issue. Our study addresses this topic and considers to what degree technology transfer processes differ across different industrial sectors. To that end, we study to what extent technology transfer processes differ along both types of transfer mechanisms and key barriers inhibiting the transfer process. Based on a survey of Dutch practitioners on both sides of the transfer process, we test a number of hypotheses that differentiates between science-based regimes and development-based regimes. While our findings confirm our hypotheses concerning differences between the regimes regarding the use of specific transfer mechanisms, we also find that both regimes share a number of mechanisms that are similar. In addition, our findings show a remarkable degree of similarity among barriers inhibiting the process. We discuss these findings within the context of the broader literature and formulate policy implications.