The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry

The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defense industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defense and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defense and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defense and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritize, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.     

Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: Comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches

The study of the relationships between innovation and the competitiveness of industries is an important topic for both, academic research and economic policy. The huge economics literature flourished in the last couple of decades on the subject broadly falls into two distinct research traditions, namely the mainstream R&D spillovers approach and the evolutionary economics view. Both traditions agree on the important role played by innovation and the inter-sectoral diffusion of advanced knowledge for the competitive performance of industrial sectors. Behind this general agreement, however, the two approaches are radically different. This paper shows that, at a deeper level of analysis, the mainstream and evolutionary views do indeed differ with respect to their theoretical foundations, empirical research and policy implications. In a nutshell, while the mainstream R&D spillover approach is inspired by a traditional view of economic policy based on a market-oriented approach, the evolutionary view is on the contrary consistent with the idea that institutional arrangements and policy interventions do indeed play a fundamental role for shaping innovation patterns and their impacts on the competitiveness of industries.     

Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.     

Closing the Technology Gap?

This paper focuses on the dimensions shaping the dynamics of technology. We present a model where the knowledge stock of a country grows over time as a function of three main factors: innovation intensity, technological infrastructures, and human capital. The latter two variables determine the absorptive capacity of a country as well as its innovative ability. We then carry out an empirical analysis that investigates the dynamics of technology in a large sample of economies in the last two‐decade period, and studies its relationships with income per capita growth. The results indicate that the cross‐country distributions of technological infrastructures and human capital have experienced a process of convergence, whereas the innovative intensity is characterized by increasing polarization between rich and poor economies. Thus, while the conditions for catching up have generally improved, the increasing innovation gap represents a major factor behind the observed differences in income per capita.     

Switching VARMA Term Structure Models

The purpose of this article is to propose a global discrete-timemodeling of the term structure of interest rates which is ableto capture simultaneously the following important features:(i) a historical dynamics of the factor driving term structureshapes involving several lagged values, and switching regimes;(ii) a specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF)with time-varying and regime-dependent risk-premia; (iii) explicitor quasi explicit formulas for zero-coupon bond (ZCB) and interestrate derivative prices. We develop the switching autoregressivenormal (SARN) and the switching vector autoregressive normal(SVARN) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. The factoris considered as a latent variable or an observable variable:in the second case the factor is a vector of several yields.Regime shifts are described by a Markov chain with (historical)nonhomogeneous transition probabilities. An empirical analysisof bivariate VAR(p) and SVARN(p) Factor-Based Term StructureModels, using monthly observations of the U.S. term structureof interest rates, and a goodness-of-fit and expectation hypothesispuzzle comparison with competing models in the literature, showsthe determinant role played by the observable nature of thefactor, lags, and switching regimes in the term structure modeling.     

Estimating asymptotic standard errors and inconsistencies of impact multipliers in nonlinear econometric models

This paper presents and discusses an analytic simulation procedure which can be used to estimate the asymptotic standard errors of impact multipliers in a structural, nonlinear econometric model. A stochastic simulation approach is used to obtain an approximate estimate of the inconsistencies of multipliers when computed from simulated results. A numerical example for the nonlinear Klein-Goldberger model is provided.     

On the stability of the Klein-I model

This paper presents a revision of the numerical results by Theil and Boot (1962) on the asymptotic standard errors of characteristic roots in the Klein-I model.     

Development and validation of the Remote Working Benefits & Disadvantages scale

The changes that are constantly occurring in the labour sector have led organisations and companies to move towards digital transformation. This process was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and  conducted to a massive recourse to the practice of remote working, which in this study is understood as the term for the way of performing work outside the usual workplace and with the support of ICT. Currently, there are no flexible scales in the literature that allow measuring the benefits and disadvantages of remote working with a single instrument. Thus, the distinction between the positive and negative consequences of working remotely, substantiated by a solid literature, provides a framework for a systematical understanding of the issue. The aim of the present study is to develop and validate a scale on remote working benefits and disadvantages (RW-B&D scale). For this end, a preliminary Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) with 304 participants, a tailored EFA with a sample of 301 workers and a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) with 677 workers were conducted. Participants were all Italian employees who worked remotely during the period of the COVID-19 health emergency. Data were collected between October 2020 and April 2021. The psychometric robustness of the model was assessed through bootstrap validation (5000 resamples), fit indices testing and measurement of factorial invariance. The statistical analyses demonstrated the bifactorial nature of the scale, supporting the research hypothesis. The model showed good fit indices, bootstrap validation reported statistically significant saturations, good reliability indices, and convergent and discriminant validity. Measurement invariance was tested for gender and organisational sector. The results suggested that the novel scale facilitates the quantitative measurement of the benefits and disadvantages associated with remote working in empirical terms. For this reason, it could be a streamlined and psychometrically valid instrument to identify the potential difficulties arising from remote working and, at the same time, the positive aspects that can be implemented to improve organisational well-being.

     

The internationalization of firms in the service industries: Channels, determinants and sectoral patterns

The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in the service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R&D outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R&D outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities leads to three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; and (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.