Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks

We use comprehensive firm‐level data to estimate the responses of heterogeneous Canadian retail firms to real exchange rate movements. Our analysis focuses on a period characterized by large fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, providing an opportunity to quantify both intensive and extensive margin responses in retail industries to real exchange rate shocks and to examine how those responses differ across firms, locations, and sub‐industries. Our results indicate that a real Canadian currency appreciation significantly reduces a retailer's sales, employment, and profits. The strength of this negative effect is decreasing in the distance of a retailer from the US‐Canada border. We do not find evidence of a strong relationship between real exchange rate movements and the number of operating firms nor the probability of firm survival. These findings are consistent with the view that a real Canadian dollar appreciation increases cross‐border shopping by Canadians, resulting in a negative demand shock for Canadian retailers, and the dominant response by firms to such a shock is through the intensive margin.     

Job Turnover in China: A Case Study of Shanghai's Manufacturing Enterprises

This article studies the job turnover among manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai during the period from 1989 to 1992. Various indicators of job turnover are calculated. The empirical results demonstrate that types of ownership and firm size are significant factors in accounting for the changes in job generation and job reallocation. Among various types of enterprise, international joint ventures and small firms are more able to create jobs and to generate job reallocation.     

Order imbalance and the dynamics of index and futures prices

This study uses transaction records of index futures and index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the “true” index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive error correction model is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to affect significantly the error correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunities may persist over time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and underlying stocks. The results also suggest that the unloading of cash stocks by portfolio managers in a falling market situation aggravates the price decline and increases the real cost of hedging with futures. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1129–1157, 2007     

A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer

In this paper, we propose a new profit-to-provisioning approach that can be used in the macroprudential decision-making process. We construct new Banking Prudence Indicators (BPI) that largely capture the risk of cyclicality of profit and loan loss provisions and should monitor the forward-looking ability of the expected credit loss approach under International Financial Reporting Standard 9. We evaluate the performance of our newly proposed BPIs using two econometric exercises. Overall, they exhibit good statistical properties, are relevant to the countercyclical capital buffer decision-making process, and might contribute to a more precise assessment of both systemic risk accumulation and risk materialization.     

Distributional Effects of Tariff Reduction in the Transforming Chinese Economy

A general equilibrium trade model is constructed to study the issue of income redistribution between the state sector and the private sector induced by a tariff reduction in the transforming Chinese economy. The analysis is conducted in the presence of price control, tariff protection, and the coexistence of state and private sectors. It is shown that the way in which income levels of the two sectors are affected by the tariff reduction depends on (i) the way in which the price of nontradables is affected, (ii) the degree of privatization, and (iii) the extent of price control.     

The political economy of exchange rates: The case of the Japanese yen

This paper sets out a political economy model of strategic exchange rates, focusing on the importance of external pressures. In our approach, an exchange rate depreciation is shown to be analytically equivalent to an export subsidy and an import tax. Thus lobbying for exchange rate policy is akin to lobbying for trade policies. Applying our model to the recent history of the Japanese yen, we show that pressures from the US government can theoretically contribute to an appreciation of the Japanese yen. In addition, the yen will still appreciate even if we assume that the Japanese international firms are Aoki-type J-firms.     

Are social,financial, and human capital value enhancing? Evidence from Taiwanese firms

This study examines the effects of social, financial, and human capital on the financial performance (i.e., Tobin's q) of Taiwanese firms in 2007. We find that social capital, as measured by total lending and borrowing among related-party transactions, has a positive effect on a firm's value. Human capital, such as employee productivity and research and development (R&D), also has significant positive effects on financial performance. In addition, a higher firm value is found to be associated with a better credit rating for the firm.     

Pricing Discrete Dynamic Fund Protections

Abstract

The authors investigate the pricing of discretely monitored dynamic fund protections when the fund price follows a lognormal process or a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. A backward recursive pricing formula is derived. By employing a numerical technique that combines function approximation and numerical quadrature, the authors demonstrate how to complete each recursion level efficiently. Numerical experiments show that the results compare favorably with those obtained by other pricing methods.     

Are Derivative Warrants Overpriced?

This study investigates the pricing efficiency of Hang Seng Index (HSI) derivative warrants in Hong Kong. Different from similar research, the study examines the pricing efficiency of index warrants by comparing their implied volatilities (IV) with realized volatility (RV). Although prior studies find that warrants are more expensive than the corresponding options, they are not necessarily overpriced in the conventional sense—that is, relative to the RV. This approach allows the study to test the pricing efficiency of warrants via a test of their information content. Moreover, unlike studies that focus on data at market close, the study uses a large sample of highly synchronous intraday, firm, bid–ask quote data to avoid possible distortions arising from intraday variations in liquidity and pricing in the instruments. The data also helps eliminate the potential nonsynchronous price problem that may affect the test results. Consistent with the results from previous studies, we find that warrants are often more expensive than options. This result is attributed to the inability of non‐issuers to sell short, and the high participation rate of unsophisticated investors in the warrants market. However, regression analysis shows that IVs from ATM and OTM warrants provide unbiased volatility forecasts, and that IVs from ATM options do not subsume the information content of ATM warrants. ATM warrant prices are in line with the RV and are efficiently priced. Simulation results show that writing warrants is more profitable than writing options, and that the overpricing is directly related to the volatility premium.     

Implementation of IFRS for SMEs in Emerging Economies: Stakeholder Perceptions in the Czech Republic,Hungary, Romania and Turkey

This research investigates the perceptions of stakeholders involved in financial reporting in four emerging economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Turkey) regarding the possible implementation of IFRS for SMEs, in terms of costs, benefits, and strategy of adoption. In‐depth, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with representatives of main stakeholders (preparers, auditors, regulators, professional bodies, and users). We find more support for IFRS for SMEs implementation in these four countries than suggested by the results of the European Commission's 2010 consultation for the European Union. Interviews reveal differences between stakeholder groups and between countries regarding the preferred implementation approach (mandatory adoption, voluntary adoption or convergence of national regulations with IFRS for SMEs). Interviews indicate the most support for the convergence approach. However, users oppose convergence and prefer the adoption of IFRS for SMEs. The convergence approach moves regulators' attention from users' needs to preparers' preferences and preparedness. This finding is relevant in the decision‐making process of national regulators, who should balance the needs of various stakeholders, but also the country's political and economic objectives.