Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one-week to one month. Specifically, we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random-walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically significant improvements.     

Sustainable environmental practices and financial performance: Evidence from listed small and medium‐sized enterprise in the United Kingdom

In this article, we investigate the financial implication of sustainable environmental practices on UK small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs)–traded firms. Existing literature indicates that there is a direct relationship between sustainable environmental practices and financial performance. However, studies looking at this relationship have focused mainly on large firms with little attention paid to SMEs. Further, those looking at environmental and financial performance relationships have often used a single measure of performance in their studies. This study bridges these research gaps by focusing on listed SMEs in the United Kingdom using multiple measures of sustainable environmental policy indices on a panel of 201 SMEs on the Alternative Investment Market from 2011 to 2016. Evidence from our panel data analysis suggests significant and a nonlinear (concave) relationship between sustainable environmental practices and firms' financial performance. Specifically, energy efficiency practices, greenhouse gases, material, and resource efficiency revealed an inverted U‐shaped relationship with financial performance. The results will offer guidance to management in terms of allocating resources to sustainable environmental practices investment.     

Brexit: A Hard-but-Smart Strategy and Its Consequences

Intereconomics - Would the United Kingdom really apply high EU external tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit and carry out extensive physical checks at their border? Recent developments in London...     

Ecotourism development in Ghana: A postcolonial analysis

Despite growing research on ecotourism in Ghana, it is unclear to what extent colonial approaches to forestry and wildlife conservation still influence ecotourism in the country. This paper examines ecotourism development in Ghana from a postcolonialist perspective. It is based on a thematic assessment of primary data from in-depth interviews with a range of ecotourism actors. The paper shows that ecotourism in Ghana, much like colonial forestry and wildlife conservation, faces challenges such as the marginalisation of the local community, the use of neo-crisis narratives, a dependence on international forces, and the marginalisation of local ecological knowledge. It argues for a holistic approach to the development of ecotourism as a win–win strategy for sustainable development.     

Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: pains and gains foregone?

Many European countries restrict immigration from new EU member countries. The rationale is to avoid adverse wage and employment effects. We quantify these effects for Germany. Following Borjas (in Q J Econ CXVIII(4):1335–1374, 2003), we estimate a structural model of labor demand, based on elasticities of substitution between workers with different experience levels and education. We allow for unemployment which we model in a price-wage-setting framework. Simulating a counterfactual scenario without restrictions for migration from new EU members countries in Germany, we find moderate negative wage and employment effects for incumbent foreigners, but positive effects for natives. Our results indicate that for the native German population as a whole the immigration restrictions are not welfare enhancing.     

Motivational pathways for farmer learning behaviour in the student-to-farmer university outreach

In recent times, calls for practical training of agricultural extension workers, who exhibit the right mix of competences for responsiveness to farmer learning needs, have intensified. This comes at the time when there is an increasingly growing desire for more community-engaged African universities, and as such, making the integration of agricultural students into community outreach services a necessity. However, empirical evidence on whether student-led outreach and training models adequately respond to the psychological learning needs of host farmers and subsequent motivation of these farmers for learning is lacking. This study uses a structural equation modelling technique on a sample of 283 farmers who had previously participated in the student-to-farmer outreach of Gulu University. Results reveal that satisfying farmer learning needs influences intrinsic motivation, formation of learning intentions and farmer learning behaviour. Intrinsic motivation mediates the relationship between satisfying farmer learning needs and the outcome learning behaviour. We conclude that satisfying farmer learning needs is a strong initiator of motivational pathways for farmer learning behaviour in the student-to-farmer university outreach. We call for more public financing of university outreach programmes so as to enable not only training for churning out graduates with the right competences of responsiveness to community needs but also fostering creative innovations involving both universities and communities.     

BARGAINING OVER TAXES AND ENTITLEMENTS IN THE ERA OF UNEQUAL GROWTH

Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: “unequal growth,” where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a “status quo effect.” In a model calibrated to the United States, we show that sustained bargaining power by a party representing the poor results in a rising share of entitlements consistent with the data.     

The price of poverty: The association between childhood poverty and adult income and education in Sweden, 1947–2015

Childhood poverty increases the likelihood of being poor as an adult. We know relatively little about this persistence of poverty in the past and whether it changed as modern welfare societies developed. This study both analyses determinants of childhood poverty and assesses the association between childhood poverty and economic outcomes in adulthood for men and women who grew up in southern Sweden, and who were followed to adulthood regardless of where in Sweden they resided. Poverty is measured in relative terms. Being raised by a single mother, foreign origin, and being raised in a context where the household head was not employed were important risk factors for childhood poverty. Growing up in relative poverty was in turn associated with low income and education in adulthood. Both the persistence and intensity of childhood poverty mattered, and so did the age during which poverty was experienced. Patterns were similar for men and women, and there was no consistent change over time as the Swedish welfare state expanded.     

Dissecting Between-Plant and Within-Plant Wage Dispersion: Evidence from Germany

Using rich linked employer–employee data for (West) Germany between 1996 and 2014, we conduct a decomposition analysis based on recentered influence function (RIF) regressions to analyze the relative contributions of various plant and worker characteristics to the rise in German wage dispersion. Moreover, we separately investigate the sources of between-plant and within-plant wage dispersion. We find that industry effects and the collective bargaining regime contribute the most to rising wage inequality. In the case of collective bargaining, both the decline in collective bargaining coverage and the increase in wage dispersion among the group of covered plants have played important roles.