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21.
Maximo Camacho Gabriel Perez‐Quiros Pilar Poncela 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2015,30(7):1073-1089
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points. First, we compare the performance of a fully nonlinear multivariate specification (one‐step approach) with the ‘shortcut’ of using a linear factor model to obtain a coincident indicator, which is then used to compute the Markov switching probabilities (two‐step approach). Second, we examine the role of increasing the number of indicators. Our results suggest that one step is generally preferred to two steps, especially in the vicinity of turning points, although its gains diminish as the quality of the indicators increases. Additionally, we also obtain decreasing returns of adding more indicators with similar signal‐to‐noise ratios. Using the four constituent series of the Stock–Watson coincident index, we illustrate these results for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
22.
This paper seeks to address the policy issue of the usefulness of financial spreads as indicators of future inflation and output growth in the countries of the European Union, placing a particular focus on out-of-sample forecasting performance. Such analysis is of considerable relevance to monetary authorities, given the breakdown of the money/income relation in a number of countries and following increased emphasis of domestic monetary policy on control of inflation following the broadening of the ERM bands. The results confirm that for some countries, financial spread variables do contain some information about future output growth and inflation, with the yield curve and the reverse yield gap performing best. However, the relatively poor out-of-sample forecasting performance and/or parameter instability suggests that the need for caution in using spread variables for forecasting in EU countries. Only a small number of spreads contain information, and improve forecasting in a manner which is stable over time. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
23.
Maximo Camacho Gabriel Perez-Quiros Pilar Poncela 《International Journal of Forecasting》2018,34(4):598-611
We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as mixed sampling frequencies and ragged-edge data. First, we evaluate the theoretical gains of using data that are available promptly for computing probabilities of recession in real time. Second, we show how to estimate the model that deals with unbalanced panels of data and mixed frequencies, and examine the benefits of this extension through several Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability for the computation of real-time inferences of the US business cycle, and compare it with the alternative method of forecasting the probabilities of recession from balanced panels. 相似文献
24.
Gabriel R.G. Benito Torben Pedersen Bent Petersen 《Managerial and Decision Economics》2005,26(3):159-173
We investigate the dynamics of export channel arrangements by modelling foreign operation method decisions as the interplay between factors that motivate switches and factors that deter them. Our model extends previous analyses by looking simultaneously at (1) no change of channel arrangement, (2) replacements of foreign intermediaries (within‐mode shifts), and (3) integration of the sales function abroad (between‐mode shifts). We use a multinomial logit model on longitudinal data from a sample of Danish exporters that had entered foreign markets through intermediaries. The results suggest that the decision to carry out within‐mode shifts (i.e. to replace an existing intermediary) is driven by a different set of factors than the decision to switch to another foreign operation mode (i.e. to in‐house operations). Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
25.
Pilar Bengoechea Maximo Camacho Gabriel Perez-Quiros 《International Journal of Forecasting》2006,22(4):735-749
Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions. 相似文献
26.
27.
Suélen Bebber Gabriel Sperandio Milan Deonir De Toni Luciene Eberle Luiz Antonio Slongo 《Journal of Relationship Marketing》2017,16(1):82-98
The understanding of the determinant factors of customer purchase intention is necessary, and it is equally important to study the online purchase context, since this context is disseminated among customers. A theoretical model has been elaborated on and tested, considering the constructs of information quality, distrust, and perceived risk as antecedents of purchase intention, and aiming to analyze the relationship among these constructs in the online purchase context. A quantitative research study has been performed by means of the application of a survey. Multivariate statistics techniques have been applied for data analyses, including structural equation modeling. This study contributes to the evolution of the empirically tested concepts by providing a greater individual understanding of each construct presented in the theoretical model, as well as the relationship among them as determinants of purchase intention; the indication is that meaningful relationships were found which may impact greater profitability and, consequently, greater competition for online retailers. 相似文献
28.
Juan Gabriel Cegarra‐Navarro 《Journal of Small Business Management》2007,45(3):333-353
Companies that are able to help clients make better decisions and enhance their business capabilities to flourish. However, there is often poor rapport between operating personnel who are in touch with end customers and executive personnel who make decisions. Through exploration and exploitation processes, new ideas and actions flow from the individual (i.e., operating personnel) to the organization (i.e., the rest of individuals and groups that form part of the organization). This paper examines the relative importance and significance of “the relationship memory” as a bridge between “exploration” and “exploitation” processes and its effects on the creation of “customer capital” through an empirical investigation of 139 small to medium‐sized enterprises in the Spanish optometry sector using structural equation modeling validated by factor analysis. 相似文献
29.
We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
As the implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy requires promoting employee participation and initiating meaningful changes in organisational culture, the involvement of the human resource management (HRM) function in policy formulation and implementation is highly desirable. The relationship between the HRM and CSR functions is, however, under-investigated than other areas. Hence, there is a lack of clarity concerning HRM roles and the conditions under which they may be strategic or operational in nature. By drawing on data from interviews with 29 CSR and HRM professionals of large organisations in New Zealand, this paper argues that the role and contribution of the HR function in CSR is contingent on organisational variables such as the CSR structure, the scope and application of CSR and the nature of the HR functions. It concludes that in such contexts HRM is more likely to offer operational support in executing CSR rather than strategic input. 相似文献