Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Volatility

In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts.     

TRADE POLICY AND PROTECTIONISM IN ARGENTINA

Protectionism can take many different forms. In some cases, strong export performance can mislead observers assessing the trade policy of a country. Such is the case with regard to Argentina, where the strong showing in exports is not the result of a strategy of export‐led economic growth, but rather reflects a complex strategy of government intervention and isolation from international markets in general.     

Directed hypergraphs as a modelling paradigm

We address a generalization of graphs, the directed hypergraphs, and show that they are a powerful tool in modelling and solving several relevant problems in many application areas. Such application areas include Linear Production Problems, Flexible Manufacturing Systems, Propositional Logic, Relational Databases, and Public Transportation Systems.     

The Achievements and Failures of Argentina's Neo-liberal Economic Policies

The stability of an economic policy regime depends in large measure on either its successful authoritarian imposition or on the general acceptance by society of the distributional status quo of assets and/or income. Although Argentina's Convertibility Plan ("Currency Board" system) brought price stability and growth to the country, the inability or unwillingness of the government to attain a fiscal adjustment threatened its survival. The "fight for shares" in this "conflict society" was inherited from previous regimes. We show that this fight, previously left unresolved through inflationary finance, was subsequently left unresolved through the rapid growth of indebtedness under the Convertibility Plan. From 1999 onwards, the contradictions of the Plan became increasingly obvious and it was clear that the key to future stable economic growth was dependent on finding a way to turn the "conflict society" into a "consensus society". The construction of such a society is still a pending task for Argentina.     

Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001

The purpose of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the Spanish urban system. We study the evolution of population growth among the group of 722 municipalities included in the Spanish urban areas over the period 1900–2001. A spatial SUR model is estimated for Zipf’s law and shows the existence of two main phases: divergence (1900–1980) and convergence (1980–2001). Then, the cross-sectional distribution of urban population is characterized by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are finally introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning. This analysis shows a low interclass mobility, i.e., a high-persistence of urban municipalities to stay in their own class from one decade to another over the whole period, and the influence of the geographical environment on urban population dynamism. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands, August 23–27, 2005) and at the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics (Rome, Italy, May 25–27, 2006). We would like to thank two anonymous referees, M. Bosker, P. Cheshire, A. Carrington, B. Fingleton, R. Guillain, E. Lopez-Bazo, J. Paelinck and the other participants of these meetings for their valuable comments. Coro Chasco acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science SEJ2006-14277-C04-01. The usual disclaimers apply.     

Realized volatility forecasting: Robustness to measurement errors

In this paper, we suggest how to handle the issue of the heteroskedasticity of measurement errors when specifying dynamic models for the conditional expectation of realized variance. We show that either adding a GARCH correction within an asymmetric extension of the $\mathsf{HAR}$  class ($\mathsf{AHAR}$-$\mathsf{GARCH}$), or working within the class of asymmetric multiplicative error models ($\mathsf{AMEM}$) greatly reduces the need for quarticity/quadratic terms to capture attenuation bias. This feature in $\mathsf{AMEM}$ can be strengthened by considering regime specific dynamics. Model Confidence Sets confirm this robustness both in- and out-of-sample for a panel of 28 big caps and the S&P500 index.     

Tilting the evidence: the role of firm-level earnings attributes in the relation between aggregated earnings and gross domestic product

Review of Accounting Studies - We examine whether the contribution of firm-level accounting earnings to the informativeness of the aggregate is tilted towards earnings with specific financial...     

The toll of traffic-related fatalities in a metropolitan Italian area through the experience of the Department of Legal Medicine

Despite the introduction of new traffic laws in Italy, traffic-related deaths are still a huge burden. The study presents data and medico-legal issues behind traffic deaths in Milan between 2001 and 2012 (1506 traffic-related deaths). Data were collected from the database of the Department of Legal Medicine: 79.4% males and 20.6% females (mean age 44.14). The target group concerned traumatic deaths as a consequence of the accident as well as deaths not directly related to an accident. Although 6.1% were non-traumatic deaths (cause of death unconnected to the accident, i.e. because of a heart attack, or when death occurred after survival and cause of death was not related certainly to the accident), multiple skeletal/visceral injuries were the main cause of death (57.9%), occurring in motorcyclists the most (63.7%). Injuries to the skull and brain were the second cause of death (25.9%). Victims were mostly males (79.4%) and drivers (77.6%). Fifty-five per cent were deaths on-scene, while 45% survived. Other variables were also considered: medications, medical history, and drugs/alcohol/smoke. A downward trend in traffic-related fatalities was evident, but the toll is still high. This study should be a glimpse at the actual situation, since it is indicative of a metropolitan area where autopsies are systematically performed.