Focus forecasting reconsidered

Focus Forecasting is a popular heuristic methodology for production and inventory control although there has never been a rigorous test of accuracy using real time series. We compare Focus Forecasting to damped-trend, seasonal exponential smoothing using five time series of cookware demand in a production planning application. We also make comparisons using 91 time series from the M-Competition study of forecast accuracy. Exponential smoothing was more accurate in both cases.     

Welfare policy and the transformation of social security in South Africa

Social security is based on the belief that all citizens should be protected by the state against the main vicissitudes of life: old age, unemployment, disability and sickness. The success of welfare programmes internationally in improving poverty, income distribution and unemployment is appraised. Income maintenance in South Africa, which is discriminatory and ineffective in meeting real human needs, is examined. Although welfare should not promote dependence, neither should it be so hard to come by as to punish the poor.     

On the efficiency of stock-based compensation

When the market can observe the profitability of all projectswith equal precision, then with stock compensation (i) the weighton any given project in managerial compensation is independentof the marginal productivity of effort in the project; (ii)the projects that are the noisiest indicators of managerialeffort receive the most weight in compensation; and (iii) investorshave the greatest incentive to collect information about projectsthat are the noisiest indicators of managerial effort.     

Product Design: Preference for Rounded versus Angular Design Elements

Two experiments tested whether a general relative preference for objects with rounded rather than angular form (Bar & Neta, 2006, 2007) can be applied in the context of the design of consumer products. Images of product packaging—a chocolate product (Experiment 1) and water and bleach bottles (Experiment 2)—were manipulated with regard to the shape of both contour and graphics. There was a preference for rounded designs that extended to self‐report purchase likelihood—with additive effects of contour and graphics shape that could not be accounted for by design typicality or perceived ease of use.     

The devil in the details: Non-convexities in ecosystem service provision

Standard economic theory is built on key assumptions regarding concavity and convexity, particular with respect to the production possibility frontier. Non-convexity is readily demonstrated using a two species conventional model. Now that ecosystem services are growing in prominence it is important to confirm that typical natural resource production relations obey these conditions. If not, innocently prescribing price or allocation policies can lead to a minimum rather than a maximum or to wrong equilibrium solutions in general. This is a particular danger in decentralized pricing systems.     

The Role of Information in Resolution Trust Corporation Auctions of Failed Thrifts

This paper performs empirical tests of alternative auction models, based on the auctions of failed thrifts conducted by the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC). RTC auctions are especially appealing because of the availability of a well-defined signal of underlying value as well as a measure of potential competition, both missing in previous studies of auctions of failed financial institutions. The evidence suggests that these transactions are best described as individual private value auctions and that they are significantly different from the takeovers of failed financial institutions previously studied.     

Quality in life and death: can we have the conversations?

As nurses, we participate in providing social justice through the delivery of health care. While much of what we do supports healthier lifestyles and healing, we must also acknowledge that for an increasing number of our patients, life may have become irreversibly painful and unwanted. Nurses have acute sensitivity to the dilemmas faced by dying patients and their families. Our empathy and know-how in such cases dictates that we make an effort to relieve such suffering. Easing suffering will require assessments of the changing terrain of end-of-life care and the populations receiving that care. Dialogues can bridge the interest of patients, providers, and policymakers and ultimately legislation that reinforces ethical end-of-life care and ensures a voice for those who will be most affected.