The Bubble and the Lost Decade

In this overview of the Symposium papers, we note that the bubble that occurred in Japan's asset markets in the late 1980s came at a time when the conventional indicators of Japan's economic performance were relatively stable. Following the collapse of the bubble, neither the Bank of Japan (BOJ) nor the Ministry of Finance (MOF) took timely and effective measures to deal with the recession that followed. While the evidence suggests that looser fiscal policy would have been ineffective, monetary policy measures might have worked. However, the BOJ followed a relatively tight monetary policy in 1991–93. In the face of the liquidity trap that ensued in the last of the 1990s, the conventional tools of stabilisation policy appeared to be of limited use. To help the Japanese economy to recover from the ‘lost decade,’ we thus discuss a number of unconventional and bold measures that the BOJ and MOF could pursue. It appears, however, that the political will is absent to undertake such measures. So long as this is the case, the effects of the lost decade will continue to act as a drag on the economy.     

Texas treasury notes and market manipulation, 1837-1842

This paper examines the course of the value of the paper money issued by the Republic of Texas in New Orleans, from 1837 to 1842, using a newly-constructed weekly time series of quotations, and focusing on the possibility of market manipulation. Specifically, during 1841, misleading information concerning a possible foreign loan reached New Orleans three different times. The first time, the information substantially raised the value of Texas Treasury Notes. The second time, the information raised the value, but to a lesser extent. The third time, the information had no impact.     

Recent Trends in the Skill Composition of Legal U.S. Immigrants

We examine fluctuations in the predicted educational attainment of newly arrived legal U.S. immigrants between 1972 and 1999 by combining data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service with the Current Population Survey. A mid-1980s decline gave way to a noticeable improvement in the skill base of the immigrant population between 1987 and 1993. A short decline in the quality of immigrant skills—less severe than that of the mid-1980s—took place in the mid-1990s. In 1998, the trend reverses once more: The labor market quality of new legal U.S. immigrants improves. The primary sources of the fluctuations include changes in the quality and quantity of immigrants obtaining an adjustment and variations in the distribution of source regions and entry class types among new legal U.S. immigrants.     

A Game-Theoretic Model of Plagiarism

The damage to a reputation has long been viewed as the main and most effective deterrent against plagiarism among professional economists. We show that it is rational for individuals in the economics profession who want to plagiarize to engage in this activity given current incentives. Recent research concerning plagiarism in the economics profession has highlighted the frequency that instances of plagiarism have occurred. Our paper shows how it is possible given current incentives in the profession for these instances to go unreported therefore removing the threat of damage to a plagiarist’s reputation. We also discuss the harm that such actions cause to the original author and to the profession as a whole.     

“五星酒店如雨后春笋 有压力更有动力”——访重庆洲际酒店总经理范纳伦先生

重庆洲际酒店总经理:Franck Naulleau,法国人,中文名:范纳伦。出生于1966年。他拥有超过20年的酒店管理经验,足迹遍及亚洲、非洲、欧洲、美洲和中东,丰富的阅历让他在工作中拥有独到的见解和创造力。2008年9月,范纳伦先生来到中国重庆,任重庆洲际酒店总经理。他有广泛的爱好,特别在运动方面。在闲暇时间,他喜欢参加网球、高尔夫、足球等运动,并都是高手。此外,他还喜欢研究国际文学和电影。范纳伦先生更是热心慈善的爱心人士。在他去过的诸多国家,都留下了他乐善好施的义举。范纳伦先生相信,爱心没有国界,每个人的一点慈善之举,都终能汇成强大的力量,将幸福和快乐带给需要帮助的人。     

Hypothesis testing based on goodness-of-fit in the moving average time series model

Small sample properties of t-tests are compared with those of tests based on relative goodness- of-fit in the context of the first order moving average time series model. Monte Carlo experiments reported in the paper suggest that the actual size of these t-tests greatly exceeds theoretical large sample significance levels, while conformity of goodness-of-fit statistics to the appropriate chi-square or F-distributions is much closer. The evidence presented suggests that practitioners are well advised to employ goodness-of-fit tests as a check on results of t-tests particularly when the latter indicate ‘significance’.