Forecast Rationality in Small Firms*

A large sample of small firms was longitudinally surveyed to investigate the rationality of revenue forecasts made within such firms. The analysis helps to address the dearth of research investigating owner/managers' forecasts of growth in firms and their degree of accuracy. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results do not support the contention that forecasts made by the managers of small firms are optimistic. Although systematic overestimation was not found, managers did tend to make forecasts that were generally too extreme, and tended to overextrapolate previous growth. These results are consistent with propositions that overconfidence biases and representative heuristics influence the revenue forecasts made in small firms.     

Generalising Gibrat: using Chinese evidence founded on fieldwork

This paper reports on determinants of small firm growth and survival, using fieldwork evidence collected by face-to-face and telephone interviews. It extends the ??basic?? size-age model to a ??comprehensive?? growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm specific and business environmental. Estimation is by log-linear regression on Chinese cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results from the comprehensive model highlight the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms.     

Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle

This paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations. We find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains. A tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects. Our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non-indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule. Monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation. Monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control, and with more stable inflation, the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible.     

ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS

The idea that the monetary authority cannot achieve price stability except at the cost of a recession is the most common and convincing argument against price stability. This paper presents calculations showing that the resource costs of a recession that might result from eliminating a 4 percent inflation are approximately equal to the "shoe leather" costs incurred when inflation is stable at 4 percent.     

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY? ICT,INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT,AND BRITAIN'S PRODUCTIVITY RECORD REVISITED

Despite the apparent importance of the "knowledge economy," U.K. macroeconomic performance appears unaffected: investment rates are flat, and productivity has slowed. We investigate whether measurement issues might account for this puzzle. The standard National Accounts treatment of most spending on "knowledge" or "intangible" assets is as intermediate consumption. Thus they do not count as either GDP or investment. We ask how treating such spending as investment affects some key macro variables, namely, market sector gross value added (MGVA), business investment, capital and labor shares, growth in labor and total factor productivity (TFP), and capital deepening. We find: (a) MGVA was understated by about 6 percent in 1970 and 13 percent in 2004; (b) instead of the business investment/MGVA ratio falling since 1970 it has been rising; (c) instead of the labor share being flat since 1970 it has been falling; (d) growth in labor productivity and capital deepening has been understated and growth in TFP overstated; and (e) TFP growth has not slowed since 1990 but has been accelerating.     

Measuring Exchange Rate Uncertainty: The Case of the Australian Dollar 1969 to 1987

In this article indices of exchange rate uncertainty are measured from the perspective of potential impacts on trade flows. Empirical evidence based on movements in the Australian dollar spot rates and forward rates indicates that there has been an increase in currency risk between 1969 and 1987, which is not surprising given the progressive relaxation of the exchange rate regime during this period. More surprising is the finding that exchange rate uncertainty indices have risen relative to domestic financial price uncertainty indices. This would not have been expected to occur if increased currency risk had been solely due to growing instability of the underlying economic environment. However, since there is evidence that currency risk has been offset by domestic risk, the risk burden of diversified international traders may not have been adversely affected.     

Strategies to offset performance failures: The role of brand equity

In this research, we examine the role of brand equity as a strategy to offset the negative effects of a performance failure. Two independent studies, spanning four industries and involving 669 respondents are employed to investigate this issue. Results suggest that high brand equity leads to more favorable satisfaction evaluations and behavioral intentions than low brand equity. The brand equity effect is identified as a prevailing advantage that spans the entire failure and recovery sequence. This is an important finding because it implies that the advantages of high brand equity theoretically can apply to all failures, not just those for which recovery is attempted. Further inspection, however, reveals that despite the prevailing advantage, high-equity brand failures lead to a more drastic decline in customer evaluations immediately after the failure episode. Managerial implications and future research are addressed.