Early life-cycle behaviour of micro-firms in Scotland

The paper reports on the behaviour of young (less than three years old) micro-firms (less than ten employees) in Scotland, with an emphasis on life-cycle effects. Two main tests were carried out. The first took Gibrat's Law (that growth is independent of size) as the null hypothesis, and a life-cycle effects model as the alternative. The Gibrat's Law model was rejected in favour of the life-cycle model. Smaller micro-firms grow faster than larger micro-firms. Robust nonlinear variants of the life-cycle model were discussed and shown to display stable equilibrium characteristics which were consistent with the sample evidence. The second took a Classical simultaneous equations model as the null hypothesis, for which growth and profitability were mutually reinforcing. A Managerial model was set up as the alternative for which growth and profitability were in a trade-off relationship. The Classical model was rejected in favour of the Managerial. In the short-run, young micro-firms experience a trade-off between profitability and growth. The Managerial model was shown to imply a stable equilibrium, with characteristics consistent with sample evidence.Professor in Economics, and Director of the Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm (CRIEFF), University of St Andrews. An earlier version of this paper was read to the ESRC Urban and Regional Economics Study Group conference at Craigie College, University of Paisley, Ayr on 6 January 1994. Thanks are due to the participants for comments made, without in any way implicating them in errors of omission or commission that this article may yet contain.     

INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES*

If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistent, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank's target. Inflation persistence can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and output. This article shows that a flexible‐price, general‐equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using an interest rate target can account for such inflation persistence.     

Do customer profiles change over time? An investigation of the success of targeting consumers of Australia’s top 10 banks – 2009 and 2011

Segmentation and targeting are cited as being a core part of marketing strategy for any organisation. This study examines whether the top 10 Australian banks have successfully managed to segment the market and target consumers with different profiles. In doing so, it compares the profiles of those banks over 2 years, 2009 and 2011, noting any changes between the years. A sample of 52?000 Australian households, from each of the 2 years, from the Roy Morgan Single Source Survey was utilised to profile users of Australia’s top 10 banks by market share. The results suggest that there has been little difference in profiles of consumers across most Australian banks. The results challenge whether financial service companies are successfully segmenting the marketplace and asks whether the Australian financial services market is simply a mass market.     

Trajectories of Small Business Financial Structure

A dynamic theory of the small firm is expounded, assuming entrepreneurs maximise business value over a finite time horizon. Predicted trajectories for key financial variables are seen to depend on whether debt or equity are cheaper. The predicted trajectories are compared with actual trajectories, using empirical evidence from three years of detailed primary source data on one hundred and fifty new business startups in Scotland. Evidence largely confirms predictions of the model, for the cheap equity case. For this case, as capital and sales rise steadily, debt is retired rapidly, except when interest rates on long-term debt are low. This finding is supported by explicit empirical trajectories of key financial variables.     

A note on the design and structure of a small firms relational database

The design of a database for analysing field-work data on small firms is reported upon. The flat file ralational database methodology is adopted. This facilitates the flexible handling of large volumes of both quantitative (numerical and categorical) and qualitative (textual) data. Manipulation of the database is illustrated using some small firms examples.Many persons have contributed to the larger project on which this paper is based. On the field work side, I should mention Lowell Jacobsen, Anne-Theresa Lawrie and Jacqueline Campbell. On the computing side, I should mention Sandra Rice and Julian Read. Christopher Corrie provided useful research assistance during my tenure of a Leverhulme Fellowship, when this work was accomplished. I remain responsible for such errors and deficiencies as this paper may contain.     

Are There Investor Clienteles in Rental Housing?

The possible existence of investor clientele groups has received little attention in the real estate finance literature. In this paper we develop a clientele model, which in equilibrium produces a clustering of investors by tax characteristics. Low-tax-bracket investors are concentrated in low-value rental housing that attracts rents which are high in relation to property values. On the other hand, only high-tax-bracket investors will be observed in high-value rental housing, and they charge rents that are low in relation to property values. An empirical model is specified and estimated using a cross section of investors in Australian private rental housing markets. Investor clienteles are detected among property investors, though there is a weak diversification effect indicating that clientele effects may be stronger among single property investors.     

Lifting the hood of supply and demand for trademarks of start-ups: Partial observability estimates

This paper estimates simultaneously the supply and the demand determinants of the trademark adoption decision made by start-ups. We use a partial observability econometric model, as non-adoption is unobserved. Estimation is by maximum likelihood using the partial observability bivariate probit (POBP) model for an unbalanced longitudinal panel of surviving US start-ups (2004–2011). Our model is shown to provide a good explanation of supply and demand determinants of trademark adoption. For example, size, incorporation and expenditure on R&D are important on the supply side; and copyrights, licensing out and being in a high knowledge information sector are important on the demand side.     

Autoregressive conditional durations: An application to the Surinamese dollar versus the US dollar exchange rate

The parallel market nominal exchange rate of the United States dollar vis-à-vis the Surinamese dollar (USD/SRD) exhibited periods of severe volatility which were often followed by episodes of stability, usually at a cost of sharp depreciations. This study seeks to model this exchange rate using autoregressive conditional duration models. These models are suitable for modelling events occurring with irregular intervals. Exchange rates in developing countries have distinct features compared to exchange rates in countries with well-established and accessible financial markets. A key feature is that for these developing countries, exchange rates only occasionally experience jumps. Our findings suggest that past exchange rate changes appear to be a significant driver of future exchange rate jumps. Furthermore, our results show that money, international reserves, and commodity prices can explain jumps in the market USD/SRD exchange rate.     

Ebb and flow: Structural and spatial change in Victoria's brewing industry, 1870–1900

The brewing industry has undergone profound structural and spatial change over the last 150 years. We examine how consolidation began in Victoria's brewing industry using a historical GIS approach. We argue that industry restructuring was shaped by four interlocking dynamics between 1870 and 1900: (1) structural economic change; (2) railway development; (3) technological innovation; and (4) regulatory reform. We show that the ebb and flow of these interacting dynamics generated a non-linear process of change. Similar to North America and Europe, the industry became highly concentrated. However, this process was complicated by local factors such as climate, economy, and distance.