The VIX,the variance premium and stock market volatility

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability. The variance premium predicts stock returns while the conditional stock market variance predicts economic activity and has a relatively higher predictive power for financial instability than does the variance premium.     

An Introduction to the Patstat Database with Example Queries

This article provides an introduction to the Patstat patent database. It offers guided examples of 10 popular queries that are relevant for research purposes and that cover the most important data tables. It is targeted at academic researchers and practitioners who are willing to learn the basics of the database.     

A multivariate Poisson mixture model for marketing applications

This paper describes a multivariate Poisson mixture model for clustering supermarket shoppers based on their purchase frequency in a set of product categories. The multivariate nature of the model accounts for cross-selling effects between the purchases made in different product categories. However, for computational reasons, most multivariate approaches limit the covariance structure by including just one common interaction term, or by not including any covariance at all. Although this reduces the number of parameters significantly, it is often too simplistic as typically multiple interactions exist on different levels. This paper proposes a theoretically more complete variance/covariance structure of the multivariate Poisson model, based on domain knowledge or preliminary statistical analysis of significant purchase interaction effects in the data. Consequently, the model does not contain more parameters than necessary, whilst still accounting for the existing covariance in the data. Practically, retail category managers can use the model to devise customized merchandising strategies.     

Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets

The factors that drive cross-sectional differences in expected stock returns in emerging equity markets are qualitatively similar to those that have been documented for developed markets. Emerging market stocks exhibit momentum, small stocks outperform large stocks, and value stocks outperform growth stocks. There is no evidence that high beta stocks outperform low beta stocks. A Bayesian analysis of the return premiums shows that the combined evidence of developed and emerging markets strongly favors the hypothesis that similar return factors are present in markets around the world. Finally, there exists a strong cross-sectional correlation between the return factors and share turnover.     

New evidence on the first financial bubble

The Mississippi Bubble, South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Windhandel of 1720 together represent the world's first global financial bubble. We hand-collect cross-sectional price data and investor account data from 1720 to test theories about market bubbles. Our tests suggest that innovation was a key driver of bubble expectations. We present evidence against the currently prevailing debt-for-equity conversion hypothesis and relate stock returns to innovations in Atlantic trade and insurance. We find evidence consistent with the innovation-driven bubble dynamics documented by Pastor and Veronesi (2009) for new economy stocks. Our evidence seems inconsistent with clientele-based theories that emphasize bubble-riding and short-sales restrictions.     

Optimal variable weighting for ultrametric and additive tree clustering

A method is developed which for a given objects by variables data matrix estimates weighted inter-object distances that are optimally suited for either an ultrametric or an additive tree representation. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated on two synthetic data sets having a known tree structure and on one real data set. In the final section, some possible extensions of the present method are discussed.     

National cultures revisited

Anthropology can make a holistic contribution to the study of the complex societies of today's nations by identifying key issues, relevant to both the individual and the social system, on which these nations differ in empirically verifiable ways. This is labelled the ‘national cultures approach’ and can be considered an extension, with a broader purpose and more effective research methods, of the ‘national character’ approach of the 1950s. The article describes a large research project by the author covering over 50 nations. That study identified four such ‘key issues’, labelling them Power Distance, Uncertainty Avoidance, Individualism versus Collectivism, and Masculinity versus Femininity. It is argued that this type of contribution by anthropologists can make practical sense to policy makers in the fields of transfer of management skills to other countries, intercultural negotiations, international bodies, and education for intercultural contact.     

On commodity price limits

This paper examines the behavior of futures prices and trader positions around the occurrence of price limits in commodity futures markets. We ask whether limit events are the result of shocks to fundamental volatility or the result of temporary volatility induced by the trading of noncommercial market participants (speculators). We find little evidence that limits events are the result of speculative activity, but instead associated with shocks to fundamentals that lead to persistent price changes. When futures trading halts price discovery migrates to options markets, but option prices provide a biased estimate of subsequent future prices when trading resumes.     

Quantity and quality of information and SME financial structure

We test whether the amount and/or quality of financial statement information affects the financial structure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Belgian SMEs are used, because there are important differences in disclosure and audit requirements among them. Consistent with the traditional view that asymmetric or incomplete information restricts access to external funds, our results indicate that both the amount and quality of financial statement information are positively related to SME leverage. In addition, we find that leverage is positively related to asset structure, growth (prospects) and median industry leverage, and negatively related to firm age and profitability.     

Returns to alliance portfolio diversity: The relative effects of partner diversity on firm's innovative performance and productivity

This study considers the impact of diversification in types of technological alliances, resulting in alliance portfolio diversity, on various dimensions of a firm's performance, as they relate to exploration and exploitation. Using a large panel of innovative firms in the Netherlands, this study shows that partner type diversity in a firm's alliance portfolio has an inverted U-shaped relationship with productivity and radical innovative performance and a positive relationship with incremental innovative performance. Moreover, the results suggest that a lower level of diversity is needed to achieve an optimal level of productivity compared to radical innovative performance, whereas for incremental innovative performance a higher level of portfolio diversity appears to give the best performance.