Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda

We review and integrate the extant knowledge on group-based forecasting, paying particular attention to the papers included in this special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. We focus on the relative merits of different methods of aggregating individual forecasts, the advantages of heterogeneity in group memberships, the impact of others’ opinions on group members, and the importance of perceptions of trust. We conclude that a change of opinion following group-based deliberation is most likely to be appropriate where the group membership is heterogeneous, the minority opinion is protected from pressure to conform, information exchange between group members has been facilitated, and the recipient of the advice is able — by reasoning processes — to evaluate the reasoning justifying the proffered advice. Proffered advice is least likely to be accepted where the advisor is not trusted — an evaluation which is based on the advisor having different perceived values to the recipient and being thought to be self-interested. In contrast, the outcome of a group-based deliberation is most likely to be accepted when there is perceived to be procedural fairness and the participants in the process are perceived to be trustworthy. Finally, we broaden our discussion of group-based forecasting to include a consideration of other group-based methodologies which are aimed at enhancing judgment and decision making. In particular, we discuss the relevance of research on small-group decision making, the nature and quality of the advice, group-based scenario planning, and public engagement processes. From this analysis, we conclude that, for medium- to long-term judgemental forecasting, a variety of non-outcome criteria need to be considered in the evaluation of alternative group-based methods.     

The Wealth Effect of Demutualization: Evidence From the U.S. Property-Liability and Life Insurance Industries

This study examines the wealth effect of demutualization initial public offerings (IPOs) by investigating underpricing and postconversion long‐run stock performance. Our results suggest that there is more “money left on the table” for demutualized insurers than for non‐demutualized insurers. We show that higher underpricing for demutualized firms can be explained by greater market demand, market sentiment, and the size of the offering. Further, contrary to previous research reporting an average underperformance of industrial IPOs, we show that demutualization IPOs outperform non‐IPO firms with comparable size and book‐to‐market ratios and non‐demutualized insurers. We present evidence that the outperformance in stock returns is mainly attributable to improvement in post‐demutualization operating performance and demand at the time of the IPOs. The combined results of underpricing and long‐term performance suggest that the wealth of policyholders who choose stock rather than cash or policy credits is not harmed by demutualization. Stockholders who purchase demutualized company shares either during or after the IPO have earned superior returns. Our findings are consistent with the efficiency improvement hypothesis.     

Research Into the Aging Process: A Survey

Abstract

We are in the midst of a revolution in biological knowledge. Although research into the aging process was begun long before the Human Genome Project, it has benefited greatly from the powerful tools and techniques spun off from that endeavor. Current research is providing knowledge about life processes that may offer the prospect of slowing the aging process. Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Human Genome Research Institute, has predicted that “By 2030, major genes responsible for the aging process in humans will likely have been identified, and clinical trials with drugs to retard the process may well be getting underway” (Collins 2000). A growing number of scientists recognize extension of the maximum life span as a possibility.

The actuarial profession cannot lay claim to expertise in the area of mortality while ignoring scientific research into the causes of aging. This paper provides a brief overview of the subject and a bibliography for those interested in pursuing the matter further. It offers a brief historical perspective, a survey of current research, and a glimpse of future possibilities.?     

Expert Systems in the UK Life Insurance Industry: Current Status and Future Trends

This paper focuses upon the status and prevalence of expert systems in life insurance in the UK today and reports the results of a widescale survey conducted by the authors. About 90% of the companies who responded are undertaking some form of activity in the field, with 59% expected to have operational systems in use within 3 years. However, a significant minority do not anticipate any increase in expenditure on the technology over the next few years. Other companies, by contrast, view the technology as vital for their futures. The surveys and interviews investigate levels of activity, present and future expenditure, the extent of formal planning for applications, needs, speed of organizational progress, application areas, evaluation criteria, responsibilities for development, satisfaction with shells, and perceived obstacles to progress. For the majority who have already begun development, expert systems are seen to possess a business advantage that outweighs the problems hindering this development.     

Debunking Economics by Steve Keen

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Unit Labour Costs, International Competitiveness, and Exports: The Case of Senegal

Despite some favourable conditions and a number of policy reforms,Senegal's participation in the global economy remains tenuous.This paper uses a Ricardian framework to study Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness in manufacturing. Wages, productivity and unitlabour costs in Senegal are compared to those of other developingcountries. Senegal's labour productivity has grown much moreslowly than in successful emerging economies. The 1994 devaluationof the CFA franc has dramatically improved Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness but further improvements in competitivenessdepend on productivity growth given the constraint of the fixedexchange rate. We find a significant effect of relative unitlabour costs on exports, particularly of manufactured goods.Sustained export-led growth, however, requires additional structuralreforms.