Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

Consumer safety in Greece: An analysis of the Consumer Protection Act 1991

In September 1991 the Greek Consumer Protection Act No. 1961 was enacted. Chapter 2 of this Act establishes a legal framework for product safety. This framework has the dual aim of securing deregulation in the Greek market while maintaining effective consumer protection. This paper analyses the main features of this framework and demonstrates its inadequacies. It also investigates the extent to which these inadequacies could jeopardise an effective protection of consumers' interests. The paper concludes by emphasising that effective protection of consumers can only be achieved by supporting the general safety requirement with adequate accident-surveillance systems, mechanisms for investigation of risks, unambiguous risk-assessment criteria, creation of a comprehensive set of supporting standards that offer a high level of protection, effective control of the safety of products by the authorities, and real possibilities for consumer organisations to participate in the whole process.

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Zusammenfassung Die Sicherheit des Verbrauchers in Griechenland: eine Analyse des Verbraucherschutzgesetzes von 1991 Im September 1991 trat das griechische Verbraucherschutzgesetz in Kraft. Kapitel 2 des Gesetzes führt einen rechtlichen Rahmen für die Sicherheit von Produkten ein. Dieser Rahmen verfolgt das Ziel der Deregulierung auf dem griechischen Markt bei zugleich wirksamem Verbraucherschutz. Der Beitrag analysiert die wesentlichen Aspekte dieses Rahmens und stellt seine Schwächen dar. Er prüft, inwieweit diese Schwächen einem wirksamen Verbraucherschutz entgegenstehen können, und hebt hervor, da\ wirksamer Verbraucherschutz nur durch Stärkung der allgemeinen Sicherheitsbestimmungen erreicht werden kann. Dafür sind erforderlich ein angemessenes Unfallüberwachungssystem, Regelungen für die Untersuchung von Risiken, eindeutige Kriterien für die Bewertung von Risiken, die Entwicklung umfassender Kriterien zur Gewährleistung eines hohen Schutzniveaus, die wirksame Kontrolle der Produktsicherheit durch die Behörden, sowie für die Verbraucherorganisationen die faktische Mitwirkungsmöglichkeit an der gesamten Entwicklung.

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George Argiros, a member of the Athens Bar Association, is at present researching in the field of EC Law and Consumer Protection at the University of Leicester, Faculty of Law, Leicester LE1 7RH, U.K.     

iTV: A major opportunity for financial services,or not?

Interactive television has arrived, thanks to substantial technology investments that have been made by Sky and others. It is growing in importance as innovative interactive applications are developed for broadcast programmes (eg the BBCi service and Big Brother), and for advertising — and will develop further when broadband deployment gets to critical mass. Readers should not expect a television-variant of the world wide web, however. This was tried during 2000–2002 in the form of web look-alike, interactive ‘walled garden’ sites, and failed to attract critical mass footfall. The model has evolved and now revolves around interactive content synchronised with broadcast, which offers financial services companies an interesting new way to increase awareness and to differentiate the service presentation. Furthermore, over the next ten years, broadband is expected to usher in a new era of personalised television — in which specialised broadcasts (such as personal pensions advice programmes) can be made available on demand. The observations in this paper are mainly drawn from the UK, where digital television penetration is high; the lessons can be applied more broadly, however, and are relevant to any organisation thinking of promoting its service through entertainment channels.