MULTIVARIATE METHODS FOR MONITORING STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous ‘monitoring’ for changes in real time raises well‐known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co‐break then it is possible that simultaneous examination of a set of series helps identify changes with higher probability or more rapidly than when series are examined on a case‐by‐case basis. Some asymptotic theory is developed for maximum and average CUSUM detection tests. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that these both provide an improvement in detection relative to a univariate detector over a wide range of experimental parameters, given a sufficiently large number of co‐breaking series. This is robust to a cross‐sectional correlation in the errors (a factor structure) and heterogeneity in the break dates. We apply the test to a panel of UK price indices. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Allocating and taxing rights to state-owned minerals

Is Indonesia using the most effective possible strategies to derive revenue from its mineral resources? Auctions and work program bidding are the main ways of allocating mineral leases. In addition to the company taxes applied to all companies, governments can raise revenue from minerals owned by the state through auctions, royalties and rent taxes paid by private firms, and through dividends from state-owned firms. Indonesia uses work program bidding to allocate leases, and its production-sharing contracts are roughly equivalent to a rent tax at a high rate. This paper considers these options for raising revenues from mineral resources. It argues that efficiency and government revenue would both be increased if Indonesia relaxed direct controls on the operations of mining companies, and allocated leases by means of auctions, combined with a much lower rate of rent tax or, better still, a royalty.     

Characterization of exponential distribution via regression of one record value on two non-adjacent record values

We characterize the exponential distribution as the only one which satisfies a regression condition. This condition involves the regression function of a fixed record value given two other record values, one of them being previous and the other next to the fixed record value, and none of them are adjacent. In particular, it turns out that the underlying distribution is exponential if and only if given the first and last record values, the expected value of the median in a sample of record values equals the sample midrange.     

Dangers of commitment under rational expectations

Within a New Keynesian framework, interest rate rules that respond to public expectations lead to determinate and expectationally stable solutions for any level of commitment, as shown by Waters (Macroecon Dyn 13(4):421–449, 2009). That paper also demonstrates gains to commitment, under least square learning, though over-commitment can lead to some very poor outcomes for some parameter values. This paper shows an identical outcome under rational expectations. The optimal level of commitment is unchanged if there are observation errors in the policymaker’s knowledge of public expectations, which is not the case under learning. However, if there is sufficient policymaker uncertainty about the parameter values, partial commitment is best.     

Product-harm crisis management: Time heals all wounds?

This paper focuses on product-harm crises and examines consumer responses associated with product defect in three time periods (i.e., 3 days, 3 months and 1 year after a crisis). An experiment was conducted based on three widely accepted- influences on product-harm crisis management (i.e., crisis extent, social responsibility and organizational responses). The fourth influencing factor, time, was introduced in the present study. The four-factor model for measuring the effectiveness of product-harm crisis management was tested with particular attention to the impact of time. Crises were described in scenarios for a fictitious mobile phone. The results demonstrate that the effects of a crisis are minimal a few months after the crisis has occurred. Consumers tend to “forget” about the crisis and its effects, especially in cases when the company is socially responsible, and when the company issues a voluntary recall of its product.     

Housing tenure choice and the dual income household

Housing tenure choice has been the subject of a very large literature. Many treatments have sought to estimate the effect of household income on the likelihood of home ownership. To date, no study has ever disaggregated the household income of married couples into the separate labor income components to see if one partner’s income has a different effect than the other. Using a derived likelihood function to control for censoring in the wife’s income, this paper estimates the effect of separate incomes on housing tenure choice, accounting for possible endogeneity of the wife’s income. To compare the results of this estimation method, the paper also estimates the standard IV models, 2SLS and IV probit. While the results show that there is no endogeneity of the wife’s income, ignoring the censoring of the endogenous variable (when a large fraction of observations are censored) can possibly lead to biased coefficient estimates. Also, this paper confirms the importance of total household income, which has a larger effect than the total disaggregated components.     

Networks and linkages among firms and organizations in the Ottawa-region technology cluster

This paper reports on a study of the networking and linkage practices of technology and non-technology firms within the Ottawa cluster. The work seeks to understand how and why particular patterns of networks and linkages evolve and it examines empirically the usage and value of networks and linkages. Previous work argues that technology firms need to be relatively more adept at developing external relationships in order to be successful than do non-technology based companies. This work, however, finds that technology firms exhibit fewer linkages than non-technology based companies do within the Ottawa cluster. The research suggests that the vitality of the Ottawa cluster could be further enhanced through the promotion of additional networking and linkages among regional firms. A key implication for management practice is that CEOs of technology-based firms should work towards establishing and maintaining additional valued relationships.