The Law of 1/n Revisited: Distributive Politics,Legislature Size,and the Costs of Collective Action

The foundational model of distributive politics predicts a positive relationship between the number of legislative districts and the level of inefficiency of projects approved by the legislature—Weingast, Shepsle, and Johnsen's “Law of 1/n.” This relationship has been tested extensively in the empirical literature, with mixed results. This article presents a model wherein passing the omnibus legislation typical of distributive politics is a costly process. The model predicts a nonlinear relationship between legislature size and spending as increasing the size of the legislature also increases the costs of collective action. Results from an empirical exercise based on U.S. state legislatures (1962–2014) are consistent with the proposed model, showing a 1/n effect which diminishes at the margin as the legislature's size increases, especially in the lower chamber.     

Connecting National Safety Nets: The Dialectics of the Basel II Contracting Process

Basel II consists of supervisory guidelines negotiated by representatives of central banks and national regulatory commissions that were members of the Basel committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS is itself a regulatory response to globalization, which is connecting national safety nets in market-driven ways. A country’s financial safety net is a social contract established by short-lived agents for principals in long-lived economic sectors. Restraints placed on the authority of the BCBS members to contract for their principals by domestic politics explains: why Basel II authorizes individual countries to implement the agreement in markedly different ways; why US implementation of Basel II ran into so much doubt, controversy, and delay; and how the implementation debate set small and large banks and the Federal Reserve and other federal regulators against one another.

Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.     

不朽的红岩

一直以来,红岩精神都同井冈精神、长征精神、延安精神一样,被誉为中华民族近代的四大宝贵精神财富。即使到了现在,红岩精神依然是我们改革开放发展建设过程中不可缺少的精神导向。     

小南海地震遗址,美丽的代价

如今,已成为小南海国家地质公园的山水田园,不止是供人消遣的旅游胜地,更成为研究地震灾害的不可复制的宝贵自然实体,具有很高的科研科考价值。清晰如初的大垮岩、小垮岩滑塌面、乱石林立的地震崩积物、气势恢宏的地震湮塞大坝、风光秀丽的地震湮塞泊……正因为如此,小南海被批准为＂国家地质公园＂,列为＂国家级地震遗址保护区＂、＂全国防震减灾科普宣传教育基地＂。     

A new release of the ASTM CHETAH program for hazard evaluation: Versions for mainframe and personal computer

CHETAH, which stands for the Chemical Thermodynamic and Energy Release Program, was introduced in 1974. Since then, the CHETAH program has been widely used in the chemical industry for hazard evaluation. Although its chief aim is to predict deflagration/detonation potential from molecular structure, it can also be used to estimate heats of reaction, heat capacities, and entropies. One of the limitations of the original program was its rigid, punched card oriented format for data input and the lack of an overall hazard rating derived from the several hazard criteria. A new release of this program alleviates these shortcomings and includes other improvements. The main features of the new release are: 1) a totally interactive front end, 2) an interpreter subroutine which uses sophisticated pattern recognition techniques to combine the four hazard criteria into an overall hazard rating, 3) recognition of certain atomic groupings which are known to be sensitive, 4) correct handling of the symmetry number, and 5) an updated data bank. One of the most important features of this release is its availability in an IBM PC compatible version, making the program accessible to more users.