The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads

We discuss the origins of the Greek financial crisis as manifested in the growing fiscal and current-account deficits since euro-area entry in 2001. We then extend a model typically used to explain risk premia to assess the extent to which credit ratings captured these premia. Next, we estimate a cointegrating relationship between spreads and their long-term fundamental determinants and compare the spreads predicted by this estimated relationship with actual spreads. We find that spreads were significantly below what would be predicted by fundamentals from end-2004 up to the middle of 2005; by contrast, since May 2010, actual spreads have exceeded predicted spreads by some 400 basis points.     

Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data

We examine the relationship between volatility and past andfuture returns using high-frequency aggregate equity index data.Consistent with a prolonged "leverage" effect, we find the correlationsbetween absolute high-frequency returns and current and pasthigh-frequency returns to be significantly negative for severaldays, whereas the reverse cross-correlations are generally negligible.We also find that high-frequency data may be used in more accuratelyassessing volatility asymmetries over longer daily return horizons.Furthermore, our analysis of several popular continuous-timestochastic volatility models clearly points to the importanceof allowing for multiple latent volatility factors for satisfactorilydescribing the observed volatility asymmetries.     

An autoregressive jump process for common stock returns

This paper develops a new distribution theory for common stock returns. The model is composed of a calendar time diffusion process and a jump process where the magnitudes of the jumps may be autocorrelated. Empirical tests are performed on a month of transactions returns for twenty New York Stock Exchange securities. The data analysis supports the validity of the proposed theory.     

The purpose of capital for institutions with government-insured deposits

An earlier version of this article was presented at a conference sponsored by Arthur Andersen, Freddie Mac, and Salomon Brothers, Capitalizing for the 90s, held in Washington DC on March 21, 1991.     

Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia

Using a data set of East Asian nonfinancial companies, we examine a firm's choice between local, foreign, and synthetic local currency (hedged foreign currency) debt. We find evidence of unique as well as common factors that determine each debt type's use, indicating the importance of examining debt at a disaggregated level. We exploit the Asian financial crisis as a natural experiment to investigate the role of debt type in firm performance. Surprisingly, we find that the use of synthetic local currency debt is associated with the biggest drop in market value, possibly due to currency derivative market illiquidity during the crisis.     

Crisis at the summit

An unrecognized affliction is striking certain gifted performers at the top of their game. Its cause, paradoxically, is success itself. These stars, who thrive on conquering new challenges, can lose their bearings and question their purpose once a job has been mastered. A vague dissatisfaction gives way to confusion and then to inner turmoil. Left unattended, this summit syndrome can derail promising careers. The syndrome has three phases. In the approach phase, when most of the challenges of a current job have been met, sufferers tend to push harder in a vain attempt to recapture the adrenaline rush of the climb. Then, in the plateauing phase, when virtually all the challenges have been conquered, these individuals, who are incapable of coasting, bear down to try to produce ever more stellar results, but to less effect and greater dissatisfaction. This leads to the terminal descending phase, when performance slips noticeably. As their superstar status fades, they jump ship, accept demotions, or take lateral transfers. It's a terrible waste, for if the syndrome is recognized, steps can be taken before performance slips to dispel the confusion and set the stage for productive growth to the next assignment. There are four parts to this process: First, understand your "winning formula"--the characteristic way you approach a situation--and the vital part it plays in feeling stale or losing your edge. Second, reconnect with your core purpose in life. Third, recast your current, or future, job to better align your inner aspirations with the external requirements of your work. And fourth, create a developmental path by honing a handful of core leadership competencies. None of this is easy, but for talented individuals--and the organizations that rely on them--the vaccine of preventive awareness is far better than gambling on an after-the-fact cure once the crisis is full-blown.     

Managing global accounts

Global account management--which treats a multinational customer's operations as one integrated account, with coherent terms for pricing, product specifications, and service--has proliferated over the past decade. Yet according to the authors' research, only about a third of the suppliers that have offered GAM are pleased with the results. The unhappy majority may be suffering from confusion about when, how, and to whom to provide it. Yip, the director of research and innovation at Capgemini, and Bink, the head of marketing communications at Uxbridge College, have found that GAM can improve customer satisfaction by 20% or more and can raise both profits and revenues by at least 15% within just a few years of its introduction. They provide guidelines to help companies achieve similar results. The first steps are determining whether your products or services are appropriate for GAM, whether your customers want such a program, whether those customers are crucial to your strategy, and how GAM might affect your competitive advantage. If moving forward makes sense, the authors' exhibit, "A Scorecard for Selecting Global Accounts," can help you target the right customers. The final step is deciding which of three basic forms to offer: coordination GAM (in which national operations remain relatively strong), control GAM (in which the global operation and the national operations are fairly balanced), and separate GAM (in which a new business unit has total responsibility for global accounts). Given the difficulty and expense of providing multiple varieties, the vast majority of companies should initially customize just one---and they should be careful not to start with a choice that is too ambitious for either themselves or their customers to handle.     

Is it real? Can we win? Is it worth doing? Managing risk and reward in an innovation portfolio

Minor innovations make up most of a company's development portfolio, on average, but they never generate the growth companies seek. The solution, says Day--the Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor of Marketing and a codirector of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at Wharton--is for companies to undertake a systematic, disciplined review of their innovation portfolios and increase the number of major innovations at an acceptable level of risk. Two tools can help them do this. The first, called the risk matrix, graphically reveals the distribution of risk across a company's entire innovation portfolio. The matrix allows companies to estimate each project's probability of success or failure, based on how big a stretch it is for the firm to undertake. The less familiar the product or technology and the intended market, the higher the risk. The second tool, dubbed the R-W-W (real-win-worth it) screen, allows companies to evaluate the risks and potential of individual projects by answering six fundamental questions about each one: Is the market real? Explores customers' needs, their willingness to buy, and the size of the potential market. Is the product real? Looks at the feasibility of producing the innovation. Can the product be competitive? and Can our company be competitive? Investigate how well suited the company's resources and management are to compete in the marketplace with the product. Will the product be profitable at an acceptable risk? Explores the financial analysis needed to assess an innovation's commercial viability. Last, Does launching the product make strategic sense? examines the project's fit with company strategy and whether management supports it.