Analyzing the effect of dynamically assigned treatments using duration models,binary treatment models,and panel data models

Often, the moment of a treatment and the moment at which the outcome of interest occurs are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. Notably, both treatment and outcome are characterized by the moment they occur. In this paper, we compare different methods of inference of the treatment effect. We argue that the timing of the treatment relative to the outcome conveys useful information on the treatment effect, which is discarded in binary treatment frameworks. Thanks to participants at the Tenth Panel Data Conference in Berlin, 2002, in particular to our discussant Bo Honoré, for helpful comments. Jaap Abbring acknowledges financial support by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences.     

Time-use data in economics

This project on time-use data in economics is one of the first in a series of new initiatives taken by the Board of Editors of the European Economic Review to publish research in newly developing areas in economics. The symposium shows the diversity of potential applications of time-budget data, a major new resource for household economics, labor economics, welfare economics, and other areas. Jacobsen and Kooreman examine how a change in shop opening-hours legislation altered consumers’ time allocations. Hamermesh shows that consumers with higher full incomes enjoy more temporal variety. Klevmarken demonstrates that conventional estimates of labor-supply elasticities change substantially when time-budget data are used. Fahr shows the immensity of informal education activities and their positive correlation with formal education.     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

Blowing bubbles: Heuristics and biases in the run-up of stock prices

Ads of stocks and mutual funds typically tout their past performance, despite a disclosure that past performance does not guarantee future returns. Are consumers motivated to buy or sell based on past performance of assets? More generally, do consumers (wrongly) use sequential information about past performance of assets to make suboptimal decisions? Use of this heuristic leads to two well-known biases: the hot hand and the gambler’s fallacy. This study proposes a theory of hype that integrates these two biases; that a positive run could inflate prices, while a negative run could depress them, although the pattern could reverse on extended runs. Tests on two experiments and one event study of stock purchases strongly suggest that consumers dump “losers” and buy “winners.” The latter phenomenon could lead to hyped-up prices on the stock market for winning stocks. The authors discuss the managerial, public policy, and research implications of the results.     

Student Outcomes in Philippine Elementary Schools: An Evaluation of Four Experiments

Policymakers in most developing countries are concerned abouthigh dropout rates and poor student learning in primary education.The government of the Philippines initiated the Dropout InterventionProgram in 1990–92 as part of its effort to address theseissues. Under this program, four experimental interventionswere randomly assigned to 20 schools in selected low-incomeareas. Pre- and post-intervention data were collected from theseschools, as well as from 10 control schools, in order to evaluatethe program's impact on dropout behavior and student learning.The economic justification for replication appears to be strongestfor the interventions that provided teachers with learning materials,which helped them to pace lessons according to students' differingabilities, and that initiated parent-teacher partnerships, whichinvolved parents in the schooling of their children. The justificationwas weakest for the school feeding intervention. In additionto the results specific to the Philippines, this research demonstratesthe feasibility of monitoring and evaluating interventions inthe education sector in other developing countries, includingthe use of randomized control designs.     

Nonparametric estimation of a dependent competing risks model for unemployment durations

In this paper we simultaneously analyze transitions from unemployment to employment and to nonparticipation. We estimate a dependent competing risks model with nonparametric specifications of the destination-specific duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity terms, allowing for mutual dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity terms. We use an administrative data set covering all registered French unemployed over the period 1988–1994, stratified by gender type, duration class and exit state. We thank the Editor and three anonymous referees for their useful comments. A preliminary version of this paper was distributed under the title “Individual variation in exit rates from unemployment: a nonparametric multivariate analysis using aggregate data”. The Département de Marché du Travail of the Ministère du Travail, de l’Emploi et de la Formation Professionelle of France kindly provided the data.     

CARBON LOCK‐IN: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS

We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil‐saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.     

Cooperative games in permutational structure

Summary. By a cooperative game in coalitional structure or shortly coalitional game we mean the standard cooperative non-transferable utility game described by a set of payoffs for each coalition being a nonempty subset of the grand coalition of all players. It is well-known that balancedness is a sufficient condition for the nonemptiness of the core of such a cooperative non-transferable utility game. In this paper we consider non-transferable utility games in which for any coalition the set of payoffs depends on a permutation or ordering upon any partition of the coalition into subcoalitions. We call such a game a cooperative game in permutational structure or shortly permutational game. Doing so we extend the scope of the standard cooperative game theory in dealing with economic or political problems. Next we define the concept of core for such games. By introducing balancedness for ordered partitions of coalitions, we prove the nonemptiness of the core of a balanced non-transferable utility permutational game. Moreover we show that the core of a permutational game coincides with the core of an induced game in coalitional structure, but that balancedness of the permutational game need not imply balancedness of the corresponding coalitional game. This leads to a weakening of the conditions for the existence of a nonempty core of a game in coalitional structure, induced by a game in permutational structure. Furthermore, we refine the concept of core for the class of permutational games. We call this refinement the balanced-core of the game and show that the balanced-core of a balanced permutational game is a nonempty subset of the core. The proof of the nonemptiness of the core of a permutational game is based on a new intersection theorem on the unit simplex, which generalizes the well-known intersection theorem of Shapley. Received: October 31, 1995; revised version: February 5, 1997     

Empirical Inference with Equilibrium Search Models of the Labour Market

This paper examines the use of equilibrium search models in the empirical analysis of labour markets. We survey the literature on structural estimation of these models with micro data on wages and durations, and we discuss the advantages of this approach for policy analysis and for obtaining a better understanding of the labour market. During the past ten years, substantial progress has been made in terms of the explanatory power of these models. We finish with a critical examination of the extent to which the approach can be fruitfully applied to (matched worker-) firm data.