The Dive and Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures,Global Patterns,and Predictive Model

This study examines the diffusion of pairs of substitute products (current versus new) in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. The study finds that current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently, they suffer a dramatic decrease in penetration of 286%, which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of current products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of the current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time‐to‐dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time‐to‐dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time‐to‐dive are shorter, and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete‐time hazard model shows that the introduction of the new product, prior penetration of the current product, the population density of the country, and prior dives in other countries predict intercountry the hazard of a peak. Subsequently, takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%.     

Disappearing Dividends, Catering, and Risk

Fama and French (2001a) show that the propensity to pay dividendsdeclines significantly between 1978 and 1999. We examine this"disappearing dividends" puzzle through the lens of risk andreport two main findings: (i) Risk is a significant determinantof the propensity to pay dividends, and it explains roughly40% of disappearing dividends; (ii) We find little support forthe view that disappearing dividends reflects firms' cateringto transient fads for dividends. Absent risk controls, proxiesfor fads matter, but these proxies are insignificant once wecontrol for risk. Our results are robust to an extensive batteryof robustness tests that vary samples, time periods, proxiesfor fads, the types of empirical tests, and the nature of payoutdecisions made by firms.     

The anatomy of unemployment dynamics

This paper examines the relation between individual unemployment durations and incidence (inflow size) on the one hand and the time-varying macroeconomic conditions in the economy on the other. We develop a model for the analysis of aggregate unemployment incidence and duration data and estimate this model on quarterly French data over the period 1982-1994 stratified by sex. We find upward trends in both incidence and durations. The former is relatively important for females, the latter for males. Male incidence and durations are countercyclical, with only a minor role for cohort effects on durations. In contrast, female cohorts entering at the top of the cycle have relatively short unemployment spells and the female incidence is, if anything, procyclical. There is strong seasonal variation, in particular in the incidence. Finally, we find relatively small non-monotonic individual duration dependence in the first six quarters of unemployment. Unobserved heterogeneity explains the observed negative duration dependence at these durations. We provide some evidence that negative individual duration dependence, and not heterogeneity, is important at higher durations.     

Self‐Determined Feedback Seeking: The Role of Perceived Supervisor Autonomy Support

We use self‐determination theory (SDT) as a framework for investigating how perceived autonomy‐supportive supervision positively influences conditions that motivate newcomer subordinates to engage in feedback seeking. Based on data collected from MBA interns at two time periods, perceived autonomy support predicted task autonomy, informal supervisor feedback, and subordinate relationship building, and the latter two mediated the relationship between autonomy support and feedback seeking. Our study provides an SDT perspective on newcomer socialization by highlighting the important role supervisor support for autonomy can play in motivating feedback seeking as a proactive socialization tactic. Organizations and human resources management professionals should consider including training around autonomy support in supervisory training programs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The world wide web in the food and beverage sector in Spain

Despite its potential, the World Wide Web is not yet a real or viable alternative for marketing channels in Spain. This research attempts to identify and evaluate the factors that contribute and facilitate the development of the Web as an environment for commercial activities in the food and beverage sector in Spain. Spanish consumers have traditionally shown little interest in all forms of distance buying and direct marketing. A range of factors may facilitate this development such as continuous growth in access to the Internet, continued evolution of computer technology, reductions in Internet connection tariffs, and communication speed. Consumers' income, the availability of information online, and the online consumption experience may also act as an impulse for commercial developments on the Web.     

Opening services markets within Europe: Modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in services is often more important to supply foreign markets than cross-border trade. A complete analysis of services liberalization therefore requires the modelling of FDI. This paper presents the treatment of FDI in our CGE model WorldScan based on the ideas of Petri [Petri, P.A., 1997. Foreign direct investment in a computable general equilibrium framework. Paper Prepared for the Conference, Making APEC work: Economic Challenges and Policy Alternatives, March 13–14. Keio University, Tokyo] and Markusen [Markusen, J.R., 2002. Multinational Firms and The Theory of International Trade. MIT Press] that firms which establish affiliates abroad also transfer firm-specific knowledge. Consequently, capital owned by suppliers from home and foreign countries are not perfect substitutes. We apply this model to the proposals of the European Commission to open up services markets. Even when FDI in services could increase by 20% to 35%, the overall economic impact is limited. Our assessment suggests that GDP in the EU25 could increase up to 0.4%. These effects could be up to 0.8% higher if foreign capital also increases the overall productivity of the services sector.     

External Costs of Aquaculture Production in West Virginia

Temperate hill-lands of the U.S.A. such as those in West Virginia are areas from which increasing output of farm-raised fish may be possible. However, the downstream economic impacts of current and projected future effluent as a result of aquaculture production have not been extensively studied. Using an externality framework and a combination of primary and secondary data, this study determines pollution prevention costs (PPC), and downstream pollution damage costs resulting from fish farm wastewater effluent measured as willingness to pay (WTP) for restoring water quality. PPC is estimated at $0.11 per kg of trout produced (which would add 6% to private production cost), and WTP is estimated at $0.49 per kg of trout produced (representing 25% of private production cost) at current production and price levels. This study shows that installation of filtration units is a low-cost (less than 6% of total cost) and an effective technology for controlling pollution at the source. Internalizing external costs (adding this 6% to private production costs) is one strategy that could contribute to sustainable growth of the aquaculture industry.     

A cybernetic view of environmental management: the implications for business organizations

Current environmental management practice is judged to be mechanistic and based on previous experience with health and safety and with quality management systems. In support of the claim that systems approaches to management are required, the question is asked: what is the systemic nature of environmental management and will it lead an organization towards some concept of sustainable business practice? To try and answer this question the Viable System Model (VSM) developed by Stafford Beer was used to analyse current environmental management practice from a systems perspective in seven manufacturing organizations. The findings suggest that significant structural changes in organizations will be necessary as well as changes in management practices (core competencies) and attitudes if organizations are to become viable. Tomorrow's business strategy is likely to be driven much more by cooperation rather than by competition. Some possible implications for business are: (1) Corporate portfolios will be organized around the supply chain (or flows of energy and materials) instead of products and markets. (2) Strategy will not only continue to be made at the corporate and business unit levels but also at the industry level. (3) Such developments will require much higher degrees of integration and cooperation than is currently practised between companies. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

When Do Expert Teams Fail to Create Impactful Inventions?

We investigate the salience of expertise in creating high impact inventions and question experts’ ability to deploy novel ideas. Specifically, we examine the relationships between expertise, component originality, and a team's structural holes’ position in the collaborative network and propose that, in relative terms, expert teams create lower impact inventions if they deploy more original components and if they occupy structural holes. We test and confirm our hypotheses in a sample of semiconductor firms. In post‐hoc analyses, we find a three‐way interaction where the negative effect of structural holes almost disappears when an expert team experiments with original components whereas an increase in non‐redundancy is detrimental when teams with high expertise use familiar components. Our findings inform a foundational view of the invention process and provide novel insights into the contingent benefits of domain expertise.