Tests of some business cycle hypotheses under rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Tests einiger Konjunkturzyklus-Hypothesen bei rationalen Erwartungen. — Der Autor testet die Hypothese des realen Konjunkturzyklus sowie die neuklassische und die Keynesianische Konjunkturzyklus-Theorie mit Hilfe von Restriktionen der beobachtbaren reduzierten Form eines Zwei-Gleichungs-Modells für Produktion und Inflation. Die beobachtbare reduzierte Form definiert ein stabiles dynamisches Subsystem (Kointegrationssystem) mit stochastischen Trends, die herrühren von nominalen Variablen wie den L?hnen, der nominalen monet?ren Basis und den nominalen Staatsausgaben, die als schwach exogen angenommen werden. Die empirischen Ergebnisse liefern Belege gegen die Theorie des realen Konjunkturzyklus und die neuklassische Theorie der Konjunkturschwankungen.

---

Résumé Tests des hypothèses des cycles conjoncturels aux expectatives rationnelles. — La théorie du cycle économique réel ainsi que les théories néo-classiques et keynésiennes sont soumises à un test au moyen des restrictions sur la forme réduite observable d’un modèle à deux équations pour l’output et l’inflation. Cette forme définit un sous-système stable et dynamique (système de cointégration) avec des tendances stochastiques venant des variables nominales comme des salaires monétaires, de la base nominale monétaire et des dépenses publics nominales qu’on suppose être faiblement exogènes. Les résultats empiriques donnent l’évidence contre le cycle économique réel et la théorie néoclassique.

---

Resumen Tests de algunas hipótesis sobre la coyuntura bajo expectativas racionales. — En este trabajo se lleva a cabo un test de las teorias real, nueva clásica y keynesiana de la coyuntura imponiendo restricciones externas sobre la forma reducida observable de un modelo biecuacional del producto y de la inflation. La forma reducida observable define un subsistema dinámico estable (sistema de cointegración) con tendencias estocásticas derivadas de variables nominales como los salarios, la base monetaria y el gasto, que son consideradas variables débilmente exógenas. Los resultados empiricos contradicen a la teorias real y nueva clásica de la coyuntura.

     

Telecommunications in China

Recently, a ten-man delegation of the United States' IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) visited the People's Republic of China, at the invitation of the Chinese Electronics Society. It was the first formal visit arranged under the auspices of these two organizations. The delegation represented wide-ranging interests in telecommunications, computer technology and engineering education. This report reflects one delegation member's observations in the field of telecommunications.     

Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms

A risk-averse price-setting firm which knows the quantity demanded at the status quo price but has imperfect information otherwise may choose not to change it although an otherwise identical risk-neutral firm would do so, provided the variance of the firm's subjective probability distribution over quantities demanded as a function of price displays a kink at the status quo. This is equivalent to risk aversion of order one. When no such endogenous fixprice exists, the size of price adjustment still tends to zero as risk aversion tends to infinity, and to any arbitrarily small menu cost there exists a degree of risk aversion so that the firm will not adjust.     

The pricing of equity-linked life insurance policies with an asset value guarantee

This paper considers the equilibrium pricing of equity-linked life insurance policies with an asset value guarantee; such policies provide for benefits which depend upon the performance of a reference portfolio subject to a minimum guaranteed benefit. The benefit is decomposed into a sure amount and an immediately exercisable call option on the reference portfolio. A numerical procedure for determining the value of the call option is presented and the risk minimizing investment strategy to be followed by the issuer of the policy is derived.     

Ist die Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Rentenzugangsalters nur eine Rentenkürzung?

In der Diskussion um die Erh?hung des gesetzlichen Rentenzugangsalters wird behauptet, dass diese lediglich eine gro?e Rentenkürzung darstellt. Ist diese Aussage haltbar? Wie wirkt der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor, wenn sich das Rentenzugangsalter ?ndert? Welche Rolle spielt dabei die zukünftige Entwicklung der Bev?lkerung? Professor Dr. Eckart Bomsdorf, 62, lehrt und forscht an der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakult?t der Universit?t zu K?ln; Bernhard Babel, 28, Dipl.-Kaufmann, ist Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Seminar für Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistik der Universit?t zu K?ln.     

Healthcare utilization and costs with fixed-source versus variable-source tacrolimus in patients receiving a kidney transplant

Abstract

Aims: Switching drug manufacturers in transplant patients may require an increased intensity of therapeutic monitoring, leading to additional healthcare visits, associated laboratory tests, and perhaps hospitalizations. As real-world studies examining the interchangeability of tacrolimus from different manufacturers are limited, the purpose of this study was to examine the healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and economic impact of tacrolimus-switching in kidney transplantation.

Materials and methods: This cross-sectional, retrospective study examined HRU and healthcare costs (HCCs) among patients with a kidney transplant who were prescribed tacrolimus from fixed-source (FS) vs variable-source (VS) manufacturers using claims data from the large US health plan Humana from October 1, 2012, to December 31, 2013.

Results: Overall, 1,024 patients were identified (FS: n?=?674, 66%; VS: n?=?350, 34%). The number of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) events for the VS group was 13% greater than for the FS group after controlling for demographics, comorbidity score, and number of medications (incidence rate ratio?=?1.13, p?=?.033). Adjusted total HCCs were 9% lower for VS (US$28,054 vs US$30,823, p?=?.045). In the unadjusted analysis, VS had greater emergency department (ED) utilization (45% vs 35%, p?<?.002). In the VS group, the mean (standard deviation [SD]) number of days from manufacturer switch to first outpatient visit was 23.8 (33.6), and the number of days (SD) to first TDM event was 43.6 (56.2).

Limitations: Study limitations include the lack of availability of many transplant-specific variables within the Humana database, potential errors/omissions in claims coding, and restriction of cross-sectional data examination to a 1-year period.

Conclusions: VS patients had greater TDM and lower total HCCs. Further research is warranted to understand the drivers of ED use among the VS group, and to determine factors associated with delayed TDM after regimen modification. Opportunities may exist to improve the quality of care for patients receiving immunosuppressant treatment with tacrolimus.     

Competitive differential pricing

We analyze welfare under differential versus uniform pricing across oligopoly markets that differ in costs of service, and establish general demand conditions for differential pricing by symmetric firms to increase consumer surplus, profit, and total welfare. The analysis reveals why competitive differential pricing is generally beneficial—more than price discrimination—but not always, including why profit may fall, unlike for monopoly. The presence of more competitors tends to enlarge consumers' share of the gain from differential pricing, though profits often still rise. When firms have asymmetric costs, however, profit or consumer surplus can fall even with ‘simple’ linear demands.     

The job stress–job performance relationship in the social service encounter

• The current study empirically examines job performance by considering perceived customer demands as a new antecedent of job stress (JS) and the mediating role of emotion‐focused coping (EFC) on the relationship of JS and physical consequences (PC), and in‐turn job performance. A mailed survey that solicited 2500 social service providers working in the United States rendered a useable random sample of 533. Regression analyses supported the hypothesized relationships. Findings suggest that emotions play an important role in the quality of the social service encounter evidenced by the mediating role of EFC in the relationship between JS and job performance. The introduction of an intervening variable (i.e., EFC) in the JS–job performance relationship extends affective event theory (AET). The findings offer management new insights into the service encounter by identifying a source of JS that creates barriers to value added benefit creation.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast and frugal forecasting

Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures. We draw from research on the adaptive toolbox and ecological rationality to demonstrate the power of using intuitive heuristics for forecasting in various domains including sport, business, and crime.