Pricing Internet access in the presence of user loyalty

Socio-economic aspects of future communication networks such as pricing models for network providers, network neutrality, and Quality of Experience (QoE) are becoming more and more important as the convergence of networks is in progress. All the above areas share a common interest: the deeper understanding of user behavior. In this paper, as a first step towards a more realistic user model, we investigate customer loyalty and its impact on the pricing competition of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) who sell Internet access to end-users. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we analyze the impact of user loyalty with game-theoretical means motivated by the Bertrand game. We show how loyalty introduces a new equilibrium in a repeated game setting resulting in the cooperation of ISPs. Furthermore, we investigate the case of a differentiated customer population by introducing dual reservation values, and show how it leads to new, pure strategy Nash equilibria indicating that ISPs should make the most out of their respective loyal user base. Second, we construct two novel models for customer loyalty incorporating two important aspects of the users’ purchasing decisions: price sensitivity and inherent uncertainty. We evaluate the impact of user loyalty through these models by extensive simulations in a number of relevant scenarios. In particular, we show how the higher level of loyalty in the user population leads to larger profits for ISPs. We argue that our findings can motivate network researchers to incorporate a finer-grained user behavior model in their investigations on pricing models of network services and other socio-economic issues.     

Estimating Consumer Lock-In Effects from Firm-Level Data

This paper proposes a practical method for estimating consumer lock-in effects from firm-level data. The method compares the behavior of already contracted consumers to the behavior of new consumers, the latter serving as a counterfactual to the former. In panel regressions on firms’ incoming and quitting consumers, we look at the differential response to price changes and identify the lock-in effect from the difference between the two. We discuss the potential econometric issues and measurement problems and offer solutions to them. We illustrate our method by analyzing the market for personal loans in Hungary and find strong lock-in effects.     

Bayesian VAR forecasts,survey information,and structural change in the euro area

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density forecasts. Importantly, we do not restrict the forecasts at a specific quarterly horizon but their possible paths over several horizons jointly since the survey information comes in the form of one- and two-year-ahead expectations. As well as improving the accuracy of the variable that we target, the spillover effects on “other-than-targeted” variables are relevant in size and are statistically significant. We document that the baseline BVAR exhibits an upward bias for GDP growth after the financial crisis, and our results provide evidence that survey forecasts can help mitigate the effects of structural breaks on the forecasting performance of a popular macroeconometric model.     

Regulating misinformation

Governments have responded to misleading advertising by banning it, engaging in counter-advertising and taxing and regulating the product. In this paper, we consider the welfare effects of those different responses to misinformation. While misinformation lowers consumer surplus, its effect on social welfare is ambiguous. Misleading advertising leads to over-consumption but that may be offsetting the underconsumption associated with oligopoly outputs. If all advertising is misinformation then a tax or quantity restriction on advertising maximizes welfare, and other policy interventions are inferior. If firms undertake quality improving investments that are complementary to misinformation, then combining taxes or bans on misleading advertising with other policies can increase welfare.     

Conservation tillage vs. conventional tillage: long-term effects on yields in continental,sub-humid Central Europe,Hungary

The present study reports novel data concerning Conservation Tillage (CT) in the continental sub-humid climate zone in Central Europe (Hungary), an area which has been mostly neglected in the course of previous CT studies. The results of a 10-year (2003–2013) comparative study of mouldboard ploughing tillage (PT) and CT (no inversion, using a reduced number of tillage operations and leaving min. 30% crop residues on the soil surface) types are reported. Our extensive monitoring system has provided new and detailed information concerning technologies and yields both from the first, transitional period and, over the following years, of adapted technology. Our results suggest that tillage type was a more important factor in the question of yields than either the highly variable climate of the studied years, or the diverse slope conditions of the plots. During the first three years of technological changeover to CT (2003–2006), a decrease of 8.7% was measured, respective to PT. However, the next seven years (2007–2013) brought a 12.7% increase of CT yields. Our study revealed key factors in the initial reduction of crops during the technological change, and may accordingly serve as a guideline for the shortening or avoidance of decline in the transitional period.