Rezensionen

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Box-Jenkins Methoden — Alternative Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen

Summary In this paper we try to clarify whether the use ofBox-Jenkins methods would have improved the forecasting performance in Austria during the recession of 1975. For this purpose we estimate ARIMA models for gross national product, private consumption, investment in plant and equipment, and inventory investment. We then compare the forecasts derived from these models with the results of more convential forecasting techniques. It can not be expected that Box-Jenkins methods predict a business cycle turning point. But, as soon as the recession was under way Box-Jenkins methods were faster in adapting to the new situation than conventional forecasting techniques. We found that the accuracy of Box-Jenkins predictions depends to a large extent on the length of the forecasting horizon. Our results suggest that the forecasting horizon should not exceed one year. All in all, Box-Jenkins methods applied together with the forecasting techniques already in use could further improve the forecasting performance.     

Ein Beitrag zur nicht-statischen Werttheorie

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Nimmt die Kapitalintensität monoton mit dem Lohn-Zinsverhältnis zu?

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 3 Textabbildungen     

Environmental (De-) Regulation, Competition, and Policy Rules

This article analyzes some problems regarding our knowledge of environmental policy. Sustainable development as the prospective enlargement of the political agenda has been identified as a long-term challenge for economic policy which could get trapped in a new form of interventionism. The evolutionary market approach that is presented here focuses on development risks of environmental policy that are mostly neglected in standard theory. A transfer of the Hayekian concept of negative rules to the realm of environmental policy is critically discussed. A straight-forward transfer of Hayek's theory stressing the importance of negative rules cannot be recommended, since even the negative rules carry some development risks in the realm of environmental policy. Some preliminary political consequences are drawn which are appropriate to limit the extension of environmental targets in the future.     

Addictive buying in West Germany: An empirical study

Subsequent to a previous article in JCP (Scherhorn, 1990) outlining a theoretical approach to addictive buying, the authors report on the results of their empirical study of addictive buyers in West Germany. The study indicates that addictive buying is clearly one kind of addiction which may be substituted by other addictions, may take the place of another addiction, or even alternate with other forms of addiction. At the same time, there is substantial evidence that there are special key experiences to which the propensity to addictive buying can be traced. Addictive buyers have been subjected to a specific form of distortion of autonomy: They have felt that for parents, relatives, or neighbours, material goods (money, property, consumer goods) seemed to be more relevant and more important than they themselves. Thus, they have acquired a strong predisposition for using consumer goods as a favourite means of compensating for the lack of self-esteem from which they suffer. This predisposition, however, is reinforced by the fact that consumption and buying increasingly take on the role of a socially favoured means of compensation.     

Debt-for-nature swaps: Axing the debt instead of the forests

Combining debt reduction with halting deforestation seems to be an attractive way of solving two urgent global problems at the same time at hardly any cost. But this view may be overly optimistic. What are the advantages and the drawbacks of debt-for-nature swaps? Are there any better alternatives?