Gernot Wersig 60 Jahre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The goal of consumer advice: Transparency or autonomy?

To improve the transparency of consumer markets by means of information is an important task but it cannot be served efficiently by consumer advice. The genuine aim of consumer advice is described here as promoting consumer autonomy by, first, decision counselling and related means and, second, coordinating consumer interests. The paper is centred on two main issues: the responsibility of suppliers of consumer goods to meet the consumers' information needs, and the potential and chance for consumers to progress towards a higher degree of autonomy.     

Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition,cohesion and mature economies compared

What is the impact of financial sector segments at different stages of development? We apply a production function approach to investigate the impact of the credit, bond and stock segments in nine EU-accession countries over early years of transition (1996–2000) and compare these to mature market economies and to countries at intermediate stage. We find that the transfer mechanisms differ over the development cycle (from bond markets to educational attainment to labor participation) and that financial market segments with links to the public sector (but not stock markets) contributed to stability and growth in transition economies.     

Karl-Erik Wärneryd: Stock-market psychology: How people value and trade stocks

Journal of Consumer Policy -     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Die Entstehung von Verbraucherproblemen im Spannungsfeld von Konsum und Arbeit

Zusammenfassung In einem Referat auf der zehnten Jahrestagung der Association for Consumer Research, die im Oktober 1979 in San Francisco stattfand, hat der Verfasser drei Thesen über Verbraucherprobleme, Verbraucherpolitik und Verbraucherforschung vorgetragen (Scherhorn, 1980). Im folgenden Beitrag legt er die drei Thesen in deutscher Sprache und in etwas erweiterter Fassung vor. Sie sind auf die eingangs kurz referierte Auffassung gegründet, daß die Bedürfnisse der Konsumenten nicht durch Güter, sondern durch Tätigkeiten befriedigt werden, und zwar durch produzierende Tätigkeiten ebenso wie durch konsumierende. Erste These: Den Verbraucherproblemen wird man nicht gerecht, wenn man sie allein aus dem Kauf und dem Gebrauch von Konsumgütern ableitet. Vorgeschlagen wird, die Anlässe für Verbraucherprobleme in den Beziehungen zwischen dem Konsumsektor und dem Produktionssektor zu suchen. Zweite These: Allgemein gesprochen kann man die Aufgabe der Verbraucherpolitik darin sehen, den Verbrauchern Risiken bewußt und Kosten tragbar zu machen. Diese Aufgabe stellt sich im gesamten Bereich der Beziehungen zwischen den beiden Sektoren, nicht nur in dem der Verbraucherpolitik derzeit zugewiesenen Arbeitsgebiet. Dritte These: Daß die politikorientierte Verbraucherforschung die Beziehungen zwischen Konsum und Arbeit zu ihrem Gegenstand machen sollte, wird von vielen empfunden. In der sektoralen Analyse der Verbraucherprobleme liegt eine Chance, zu operationalisierbaren Aussagen über das verbraucherpolitisch Relevante an den Beziehungen zwischen Konsum und Arbeit zu kommen.

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The origin of consumer problems

A slightly shorter English version of this paper was presented at the tenth annual conference of the Association for Consumer Research in San Francisco (Scherhorn, 1980). The theory of consumer behaviour can be traced back to the recognition that it is not consumer goods but consumer activities that yield utility. Some of these activities are connected with the buying and using of consumer goods, others are not. The author's approach encompasses the entire field of activities in what he calls the consumption sector of the economy, and the relations of these activities to those of the production sector. These relations may be substitutional, complementary, or reciprocal. Proceeding from this view the author outlines three propositions on consumer problems, consumer policy, and consumer research. First, he argues that consumer problems are viewed too narrowly if the concept is used only with regard to the buying and using of consumer goods. More generally, the sources of consumer problems can be seen as certain disturbances of the relations between the consumption and the production sectors. Four sources of consumer problems are discussed: adaptation of consumer behaviour to producer interests by keeping from the consumption sector certain means of maintaining the consumer interest; displacement of consumer activities which cannot be omitted without negative consequences for consumers themselves; assimilation of consumer behaviour to the kind of activity men are trained to adopt in the production sector; discrimination of consumer activities compared to activities in the production sector. In his second proposition the author describes the aims of consumer policy as the decreasing of consumer costs and the increasing of the awareness of consumer risks. He maintains that these aims should be extended to all sources of consumer problems rather than be restricted to the problems resulting from adaptation. Thirdly, the analysis of complementary relations between the consumption sector and the production sector may provide consumer research with a guideline for the inquiry into the connections between consumption and work which are of special importance in the explanation of consumer problems.

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Gerhard Scherhorn ist Professor für Konsumtheorie und Verbraucherpolitik an der Universität Hohenheim, D-7000 Stuttgart 70, Postfach 106.     

Box-Jenkins Methoden — Alternative Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen

Summary In this paper we try to clarify whether the use ofBox-Jenkins methods would have improved the forecasting performance in Austria during the recession of 1975. For this purpose we estimate ARIMA models for gross national product, private consumption, investment in plant and equipment, and inventory investment. We then compare the forecasts derived from these models with the results of more convential forecasting techniques. It can not be expected that Box-Jenkins methods predict a business cycle turning point. But, as soon as the recession was under way Box-Jenkins methods were faster in adapting to the new situation than conventional forecasting techniques. We found that the accuracy of Box-Jenkins predictions depends to a large extent on the length of the forecasting horizon. Our results suggest that the forecasting horizon should not exceed one year. All in all, Box-Jenkins methods applied together with the forecasting techniques already in use could further improve the forecasting performance.