Structural Change in OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: de-specialisation and ‘stickiness’

This paper examines whether the OECD countries are characterised by a high degree of stability of their export specialisation patterns at the country level or not. Furthermore, we test whether the countries have become more or less specialised. In this context we distinguish between specialisation (or de-specialisation) in trade patterns on the one hand, and divergence (or, on the contrary, convergence) on the other. A specialisation process refers to a process in which specialisation intra-country becomes more dispersed (and counter-wise for de-specialisation). In contrast, a divergence process refers to a process in which countries become more different in terms of specialisation in a particular sector, across countries (and counter-wise for convergence). We examine the sensitivity for the level of aggregation, and we apply a period of nearly three decades from 1965 to 1992. Twenty OECD countries are considered. The intra-country results show that the national specialisation patterns are rather sticky, although there is a tendency for countries to de-specialise in the medium to long term. The sector-wise results display convergence both in terms of β-and σ-convergence. In conclusion, we discuss the results (de-specialisation in particular) in the context of economic integration, and furthermore we contrast the findings with similar exercises conducted on structural change in technological specialisation.     

Does pre‐packed bankruptcy create value? An empirical study of postbankruptcy employment retention in The Netherlands

In recent years, there has been growing interest in whether pre‐packed bankruptcy can be a mechanism through which firms facing imminent insolvency can preserve value. Although an extensive body of literature exists on “pre‐packs,” whether such techniques really preserve value remains ambiguous. By analysing bankruptcy proceedings filed with Dutch courts in the period 2012–2018 through the lenses of real options and debt overhang theory, we examined employment retention postbankruptcy as a consequence of the type of bankruptcy proceeding (pre‐packed bankruptcy and conventional bankruptcy) and the severity of prebankruptcy financial distress. The results show that in the Netherlands, a pre‐packed bankruptcy, when compared with a conventional bankruptcy proceeding, positively impacts employment retention rates after bankruptcy. The severity of financial distress before bankruptcy does not affect employment retention rates postbankruptcy. This implies that despite the amount of resource slack, the preservation of employee value is better served under a pre‐packed bankruptcy than a conventional bankruptcy proceeding. This finding is important for insolvency practice, as up to 22 June 2017, employee rights in the Netherlands (including redundancy) were not considered to be automatically transferred to the firm acquiring the bankrupt debtor's assets when a pre‐packed bankruptcy was applied. Implications for insolvency regulation and practice are discussed.     

Dynamic Spanning in the Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model

Under the assumptions of the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), Pareto optimal consumption allocations are characterized by each agent's consumption process being adapted to the filtration generated by the aggregate consumption process of the economy. The wealth processes of the agents, however, are adapted to the finer filtration generated by aggregate consumption and the conditional distribution of future aggregate consumption. Therefore, in order to achieve Pareto optimal consumption allocations, a sufficiently varied set of assets must exist such that any wealth process adapted to this finer filtration can be implemented by dynamically trading in that set of assets. We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of such a set of assets based on dynamically trading contingent claims on aggregate consumption. In addition, we give sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibria in a dynamically effectively complete market in which agents are only able to trade in contingent claims on aggregate consumption, the market portfolio of firms, and a (numeraire) zero-coupon bond. We demonstrate the role of short- and long-term contingent claims on aggregate consumption for the implementation of Pareto optimal allocations in the presence of short- andlong-term risks. In addition, in the presence of personal risks, we demonstrate the role of insurance contracts.     

Entwickeln sich wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Forschung und Politikberatung auseinander?

Most German economists show strong patterns of professional specialisation. In their work, they either focus on basic research or on policy consultancy. The evidence provided by Haucap und Mödl has been used to question work incentives in academia. The suggestion to change work incentives, however, is not supported by Richter, who rather calls into question the German tradition of research funding. He argues that Germany should devote more competitive funding to research projects and less to institutions. Schmidt et al. explore the question the other way around: do policy consultants publish in top journals? They conclude that they do. Güth/Kliemt show how precarious and limited our (technologically useful) knowledge is. The discussion of alternative policies among economic experts should be used to tease out the controversial arguments to allow for better informed political judgements. Wagner/Fratzscher take a historical view, showing that when modern economic research (and economic research institutes) apply a more pluralistic paradigm than that which prevailed in Germany for a long period after the Second World War, economic research will automatically have a more significant impact on politics, since policy advisors will produce more varied advice with the potential for realisation. Koll also claims that policy advice must not be based on a single supply-side oriented mainstream point of view. By drawing lessons from the crisis, economics must identify a new mainstream providing reliable guidance and policy advice.     

Heterogeneity in the quality–satisfaction–loyalty framework

Few studies have attempted to compare the results of quality–satisfaction–loyalty (QSL) models across different groups to account for heterogeneity across Business-to-Business dyads. This study confirms the mediation effects of trust, commitment and information sharing in the QSL causal chain, and compares the confirmed model across selected sources of heterogeneity originating from the variance in actor demographics and market characteristics. Our study employed a focal firm approach to consider a network of buyers in the South African Computer Aided Design (CAD) industry. Data was collected from 497 respondents and the empirical model was tested using variance based Structural Equation Modelling and Finite Mixture modelling. Beyond offering further support for the quality–satisfaction–loyalty causal chain, the study provides evidence of heterogeneity often associated of high context emerging markets.