The Great Inflation and the Greenbook

Can the story of evolving Federal Reserve beliefs in The Conquest of American Inflation simultaneously explain the Great Inflation and the forecasts published in the Greenbook during that time? If Sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in Greenbook forecasts. In this paper they are. By conditioning on the Greenbook, it is show that both inflation outcomes and Greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs. The results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the Greenbook.     

GMM estimation of a structural demand model for yogurt and the effects of the introduction of new brands

The demand structure for yogurt is assumed to be properly described by a one level nested logit model that is applied to aggregate market data. Given the presence of endogenous regressors, suitably lagged endogenous variables (Arellano and Bover in J Econom 68:29–51, 1995; Blundell and Bond in J Econom 87:115–143, 1998) are proposed as instrumental variables. The validity of this set of instruments is discussed and price elasticities and marginal costs are recovered from the demand estimates. Total welfare gains associated to the introduction of two new brands by the same manufacturer are finally computed. Prices and profits decreased and total welfare increased.     

Gastric liposarcoma: CT appearance

Two cases of liposarcoma of the stomach are described. At computed tomography (CT) the neoplasms showed features of an aggressive malignant tumor, with no fatty values within. We discuss the differential diagnosis of such lesions and conclude that, although rare, liposarcoma should be considered as a possible diagnosis when a large exophytic gastric mass is detected at CT.     

A Comparison of Residents' Perceptions in Two Cruise Ports in the Mediterranean Sea

This paper examines residents' perceptions of a wide set of externalities exerted by the development of cruise tourism. The research involved data collection in two ports located in the two largest Mediterranean islands, Sicily and Sardinia, during the summer peak of the cruise season 2011. These two cruise destinations are especially interesting as they are characterized by a distinct life cycle. The empirical findings show that the two groups of residents have statistically equal perceptions on cruise activity in their destination. A correspondence analysis shows that residents have an overall positive attitude on the development of cruise tourism with respect to social, cultural and economic impacts. Nevertheless, they also feel that cruise activity has a negative impact, especially on the environment. Heterogeneity in occupation is explicitly taken into account. These findings provide directions for local policy‐makers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diversification strategies and scope economies: evidence from a sample of Italian regional bus transport providers

A growing number of Local Public Transport (LPT) companies diversify their production lines by providing a large set of services. We investigate the cost structure of a sample of LPT companies operating in Italy and assess the presence and the magnitude of scope economies. We split the whole sample of firms according to their diversification strategy: private firms, mainly diversifying in competitive transport related services and public firms providing nontransport services in regulated markets. Scope economies appear sizeable for both groups but higher for firms pursuing a transport related strategy, suggesting caution in the multiutility development pursued by public LPT firms in Italy.     

Effective Taxation of Top Incomes in Germany

We exploit a dataset that includes the individual tax returns of all taxpayers in the top percentile of the income distribution in Germany to pin down the effective income taxation of households with very high incomes. Taking tax base erosion into account, we find that the top percentile of the income distribution pays an effective average tax rate of 30.5% and contributes more than a quarter of total income tax revenue. Within the top percentile, the effective average tax rate is first increasing, then decreasing, with income. Since the 1990s, effective average tax rates for the German super‐rich have fallen by about a third, with major reductions occurring in the wake of the personal income tax reform of 2001–05. As a result, the concentration of net incomes at the very top of the distribution has strongly increased in Germany.     

Deviations from Fundamentals in US and EU Stock Markets: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

A ‘two-stage growth’ discounted cash flow (DCF) model is built to test whether changes in the underlying market fundamentals help to explain movements in stock prices. Empirical results on two samples of US and EU stocks show that the ‘fundamental’ earning price ratio (E/P) explains a significant share of cross-sectional variation of the observed E/P, this impact being stronger in the US market. It is also found that: (i) the fundamental component of the E/P has superior explanatory power than simpler measures of expected earnings growth; (ii) ‘non-fundamental’ components, interpreted as signals reducing asymmetric information (such as firm size, the number of forecasts and the chartist momentum), mitigate the role of the fundamentals; (iii) current deviations from the fundamentals are affected by ex post adjustment of publicly available information in the EU sample. It is argued that differences in regulatory environments and in the composition of investors between the US and EU financial systems may help to explain these comparative findings. Results appear consistent with the ‘market integrity hypothesis’ postulating that reliance on publicly observable fundamentals is higher when insider trading is lower.