FROM BOTTOM TO TOP: THE ENTIRE INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN GERMANY, 1992–2003

We analyze the distribution of market income in Germany in the period 1992 to 2003 on the basis of an integrated dataset that encompasses the whole spectrum of the population, from the very poor to the very rich. We find a modest increase of the Gini coefficient, a substantial drop of median income and a remarkable growth of the income share accruing to the economic elite, which we define as the richest 0.001 percent of persons in the population. While the elite mainly obtains its income from business and capital, the income share that it receives in the form of wage income has been increasing. We also show that the dramatic decline of market income in the bottom half of the distribution is very much mitigated by income transfers within private households and by governmental redistribution.     

Symbolic values, occupational choice, and economic development

Channeling human resources into occupations with high social productivity has historically been a key to economic prosperity. Occupational choices are not only driven by the material rewards associated with the various occupations, but also driven by the esteem that they confer. We propose a model of endogenous growth in which occupations carry a symbolic value that makes them more or less attractive; the evolution of symbolic values is endogenously determined by purposive transmission of value systems within families. The model sheds light on the interaction between cultural and economic development and identifies circumstances under which value systems matter for long-run growth. It shows the possibility of culturally determined poverty traps and offers a framework for thinking about the transition from traditional to modern values.     

Measuring core inflation in Italy comparing aggregate vs. disaggregate price data

This paper focuses on the core inflation measurement in Italy using univariate (national-level inflation) vs. multivariate (city-level inflation) models during the period 1970–2006. We derive algebraic expressions that allow comparison between the reduced form parameters of univariate and multivariate local level models in the context of contemporaneous and temporal aggregation. We illustrate the relevance of these theoretical results for the empirical analysis of time series. Using Italian data, we find that multivariate and univariate models extract similar core inflation measures when analyzing the moderate-low inflation period. In contrast, the two competing models yield different trends when modeling the Great Inflation period.     

DETERMINANTS AND DYNAMICS OF SCHOOLING AND CHILD LABOUR IN BOLIVIA

This paper investigates the determinants of primary school enrolment, attendance, and child labour in Bolivia from 1999 to 2007, and attempts to analyse the interactions among these decisions over time. Although enrolment rates show a significant improvement, a high proportion of children do not attend school. The empirical results reveal that the increase in enrolment is led by indigenous children and those living in urban areas. Moreover, contrary to common belief, being extremely poor and indigenous are the main determinants of school attendance. Finally, although extremely poor children increased their school attendance, there was no reduction in child labour, which remains a relevant issue in Bolivia.     

Charity and redistributive taxation in a unionized economy

European economies are characterized by unionized labor markets and governmental redistribution of income. This paper studies a model where those two features are combined with the possibility for individuals to make charitable contributions to the poor. The model exhibits equilibrium unemployment that increases with the degree of altruism. It is shown that a more progressive income tax can both reduce the unemployment rate and improve the public budget. These results are driven by charity increasing wage pressure and the altruistic rich failing to internalize the effect of their donations on the wage setting behavior of the unions.     

Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures

Measuring the risk of a financial portfolio involves two steps: estimating the loss distribution of the portfolio from available observations and computing a ‘risk measure’ that summarizes the risk of the portfolio. We define the notion of ‘risk measurement procedure’, which includes both of these steps, and introduce a rigorous framework for studying the robustness of risk measurement procedures and their sensitivity to changes in the data set. Our results point to a conflict between the subadditivity and robustness of risk measurement procedures and show that the same risk measure may exhibit quite different sensitivities depending on the estimation procedure used. Our results illustrate, in particular, that using recently proposed risk measures such as CVaR/expected shortfall leads to a less robust risk measurement procedure than historical Value-at-Risk. We also propose alternative risk measurement procedures that possess the robustness property.     

Team reasoning theory: an experimental analysis of common reason to believe and social distance

The aim of this paper is to study the role of the “common reason to believe” (Sugden in Philos Explor 16:165–181, 2003) and the reduction of social distance within the theory of team reasoning. The analysis draws on data collected through a Traveler’s Dilemma experiment. To study the role of the common reason to believe, players’ beliefs in their counterparts’ choices are elicited, and the correlation between the endorsement of team reasoning and beliefs is considered. The relation between social distance and team reasoning is analyzed by introducing a meeting between the two players after the game. We show that the common reason to believe appropriately explains the internal logic of team reasoning and that a reduction of social distance does not produce any statistically significant effect on the probability that team reasoning will be used.