A Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)*

A new method, called Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach is proposed as a tool for model building. It is designed around flexibility (with nonlinear transformations of the predictors of interest), selective search within the range of possible models, out‐of‐sample forecasting ability and computational simplicity. In tests on simulated data, it shows both a high rate of successful retrieval of the data generating process, which increases with the sample size and a good performance relative to other alternative procedures. A telephone service demand model is built to show how the procedure applies on real data.     

Manipulation of profits in Italian publicly-funded healthcare trusts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines earnings management in state-funded Italian healthcare trusts. Italy is unique in requiring trusts to have balanced budgets by law. Small negative and positive deviations from a balanced budget had quite different consequences. The authors found no evidence of accounting manipulation when trusts posted small losses. However, trusts were found to manipulate discretionary accruals, provisions and non-operating expenses to reduce small positive deviations from zero-profit.     

盖天柯作品赏析

红色物语 这是一个把旧厂房改为新办公楼的优秀方案： 红色和黑色是具有历史意义的先锋颜色。在上个世纪它们代表着大胆不羁的意识形态和由革新方式表达的道德与文化信念所构成的艺术运动。这是那种能代表某种针对对象本质引发的潮流和张力的颜色,而白色代表用来罗列它们意义和内涵的虚无空间。     

ROLLING REGRESSION VERSUS TIME‐VARYING COEFFICIENT MODELLING: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE OKUN'S LAW IN SOME EURO AREA COUNTRIES

During the last decade, economists have shown that the inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate varies over time. Rolling regression has been the main tool used to quantify such a relationship. This methodology suffers from several well‐known problems which lead to spurious non‐linear patterns in the Okun's coefficient behaviour over time. Here, we take a penalized regression spline approach to estimate the Okun's time‐varying effects. As a result, spurious non‐linearities are suppressed and hence important time‐varying coefficient features revealed. Our empirical results show that the inverse relationship in some Euro area countries is spatially heterogeneous and time‐varying. The findings are complemented by the calculation of the rate of output growth needed for a stable unemployment rate, as proposed by Knotek.     

Conceptualization and measurement of disability in studies on subjective well-being: a critical review and evidence from the Italian Health Surveys

The main aim of this study is to assess, through a wide literature review, whether the concept of “disability,” as variously formulated, can be considered a good foundation for scientific research on happiness and subjective well-being, as well as the effect of some conceptualizations on the understanding of the relationship between happiness and disability. The literature review includes longitudinal population studies, cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal clinical researches. The empirical part of the study, based on the 2013 Italian Health Interview Survey, shows some examples of the impact of different definitions of disability on the subjective well-being variability. The Italian Health Interview Survey is conducted every 5 years and carried out on a sample of about 60,000 households and 162,000 respondents distributed in 1456 municipalities. Some suggestions for future research, based on a vision of the multifaceted nature of disability, are proposed.     

Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Volatility

In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts.     

Assessing the functional relationship between CO2 emissions and economic development using an additive mixed model approach

Researchers have suggested that the relationship between the emission of carbon dioxide per capita and the real gross domestic product per capita follows an inverted-U-shaped (so-called environmental Kuznets) curve. Studies have generally used polynomial regression (quadratic or cubic form) to investigate this relationship. It has been recognised that polynomials are not that flexible and that, by choosing the degree of the polynomial, researchers make a priori assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis using a flexible approach from additive mixed models. Such models are well-suited to handle nonlinear covariate effects flexibly and to simultaneously deal with temporal error structure. We consider the following countries: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Our results show the existence of the classic environmental Kuznets curve for France and Switzerland, and of a nonlinear (increasing) relationship for Australia, Italy and Spain. For Austria, the evidence reveals a weak N-shaped relationship. New nonlinear shapes are found for Finland (inverted-L-shape relationship), Canada (a special case of the inverted-L-shape relationship), and Denmark (M-shape relationship). Our findings are complemented by the calculation of the elasticity of the carbon dioxide emission per capita as a percentage of each level of real gross domestic product per capita.     

On the effect of obesity on employment in the presence of observed and unobserved confounding

The aim of this paper was to estimate the effect of obesity on the employment probability for Italian men and women accounting for both observed and unobserved confounding. We use microdata collected by the Italian National Statistical Office for the year 2009 during a multi‐scope survey of Italian households. The employment–obesity relationship is estimated after controlling for observed confounding by using probit regression and a propensity score weighting approach. To control for both observed and unobserved confounding (endogeneity), a semiparametric recursive bivariate probit model is employed instead. Our findings suggest that obesity has a significant negative effect on the employment probability and that endogeneity might not be an important issue.     

Realized volatility forecasting: Robustness to measurement errors

In this paper, we suggest how to handle the issue of the heteroskedasticity of measurement errors when specifying dynamic models for the conditional expectation of realized variance. We show that either adding a GARCH correction within an asymmetric extension of the $\mathsf{HAR}$  class ($\mathsf{AHAR}$-$\mathsf{GARCH}$), or working within the class of asymmetric multiplicative error models ($\mathsf{AMEM}$) greatly reduces the need for quarticity/quadratic terms to capture attenuation bias. This feature in $\mathsf{AMEM}$ can be strengthened by considering regime specific dynamics. Model Confidence Sets confirm this robustness both in- and out-of-sample for a panel of 28 big caps and the S&P500 index.