The Fort McMurray demonstration project in social marketing: Health- and safety-related behaviour in a prosperous industrial community

Abstract

This is the first in a series of surveys conducted in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, as part of the Fort McMurray Demonstration Project in Social Marketing. The Project is a community-based, cooperative program designed to demonstrate and to evaluate the application of social marketing and community animation to health- and safety-promoting interventions. This baseline survey was for the purpose of planning specific interventions and to support evaluation of the impact of these interventions. In 1992, a survey of Fort McMurray residents was conducted by telephone. Respondents to the survey tended to be disproportionately women (60%) and aged 30 to 44 (men 55%, women 54%). Most of the findings reported describe a generally affluent community with good self-reported health status and satisfaction in the quality of life. Occupational and personal health-and safety-related behaviours showed some contradictions. Both hearing protection and eye protection are much more frequently practiced at work than at home by both men and women. Protection from ultraviolet radiation, in the form of sunscreens or clothes cover, is practiced with about the same frequency at home or at work, suggesting that this behaviour is conditioned by lifestyle attitudes. Warm-up exercises are much more commonly practiced by both men and women before exertion at home than at work. We conclude that safety-related practices at home and at work are often at variance. The strategy of encouraging generalization of safety-related behaviours, to be practiced consistently both at home and at work, seems to hold promise for achieving greater compliance and promoting both community and workplace safety.     

A theory of firm decline

We study the problem of an investor that buys an equity stake in an entrepreneurial venture, under the assumption that the former cannot monitor the latter's operations. The dynamics implied by the optimal incentive scheme is rich and quite different from that induced by other models of repeated moral hazard. In particular, our framework generates a rationale for firm decline. As young firms accumulate capital, the claims of both investor (outside equity) and entrepreneur (inside equity) increase. At some juncture, however, even as the latter continues to grow, invested capital and firm value start declining and so does the value of outside equity. The reason is that incentive provision is costlier the wealthier the entrepreneur (the greater is inside equity). In turn, this leads to a decline in the constrained-efficient level of effort and therefore to a drop in the return to investment.     

Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model

We consider a Kaldor-type discrete-time nonlinear business cycle model in income and capital, where investment is assumed to depend both on the difference between normal and current levels of capital stock, and on the difference between the current income and its normal level, through a nonlinear S-shaped increasing function. As usual in Kaldor business cycle models, one or three steady states exist, and the standard analysis of the local stability and bifurcations suggests that endogenous oscillations occur in the presence of only one unstable equilibrium, whereas the coexistence of three equilibria is characterized by bi-stability, the central equilibrium being on the boundary which separates the basins of the two stable ones. However, a deeper analysis of the global dynamic properties of the model in the parameter ranges where three steady states exist, reveals the existence of an attracting limit cycle surrounding the three steady states, leading to a situation of multistability, with a rich and complex dynamic structure.     

A NEW DIRECTION IN WORLD BANK URBAN LENDING TO LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES*

The urban development loans of the World Bank are acquiring a regional rather than a city-specific orientation in several countries, especially in Latin America. These broader operations often dovetail national trends of decentralization in the political, administrative and fiscal structures. Given the current constraints of the central governments in meeting the growing demands of urbanization through incremental top-down grants, these operations aim at a gradual substitution of unrequited transfers with long-term loans to regional and local governments. The paper reviews the implications of this approach in terms of distribution and efficiency and suggests that it may be more suitable in countries undergoing economic adjustment. The objective is to sustain motivation in fiscal effort and resource mobilization at the city level, and possibly establish a different rationale for external credit supporting local infrastructure and service improvements.     

Retaliatory Equilibria in a Japanese Ascending Auction for Multiple Objects

We construct a family of retaliatory equilibria for the Japanese ascending auction for multiple objects and show that, while it is immune to many of the tacitly collusive equilibria studied in the literature, it is not entirely immune when some bidders are commonly known to be interested in a specific object.     

The Service Sector in Planned Economies of Eastern Europe: Past Experiences and Future Perspectives

The widely shared view of service sector growth in Centrally Planned Economices (CPEs) is that it was hampered by the tremendous industrialisation effort which ‘crowded out ‘service sector employment and investment. After a brief discussion of western and eastern service sector theories, the authors try to show that while the crowding-out thesis is valid for the period of accelerated industrialisation, it cannot be so easily applied to the behaviour of all CPE countries during the post-war period as a whole. They show differentiated time-pattern of employment and investment growth.     

Ascending auctions for multiple objects: the case for the Japanese design

Summary. We consider two ascending auctions for multiple objects, namely, an English and a Japanese auction, and derive a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of the Japanese auction by exploiting its strategic equivalence with the survival auction, which consists of a finite sequence of sealed-bid auctions. Thus an equilibrium of a continuous time game is derived by means of backward induction in finitely many steps. We then show that all equilibria of the Japanese auction induce equilibria of the English auction, but that many collusive or signaling equilibria of the English auction do not have a counterpart in the Japanese auction.Received: 2 September 2004, Revised: 20 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D44.Fabrizio Germano: Correspondence toWe are indebted to Philippe Jehiel for useful discussions and to Nicolas Vieille for suggestions in the proof of Proposition 2; we also thank seminar audiences in Athens, Basel, Beer-Sheva, Berlin, Brussels, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Exeter, Lausanne, Lisbon, London, Louvain-la-Neuve, Namur and Tel Aviv. Germano acknowledges financial support from Euopean Commission, TMR Network Grant ERBFMRXCT0055, “Cooperation and Information” as well from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, Grants SEC2001-0792, SEJ2004-06319, and in form of a Ramon y Cajal Fellowship. Lovo is member of GREGHEC, unité CNRS, FRE-2810. The support of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is also gratefully acknowledged. The work was part of the programme of the ESRC Research for Economic Learning and Social Evolution.     

Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances

In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short- and long-range interactions, and hence by any suitably defined network-based distance between countries. Therefore, we identify clusters through a new procedure that exploits Estrada communicability distance and the vibrational communicability distance, which turn out to be particularly suitable for catching the inner structure of the economic network. The proposed methodology aims at finding the distance threshold that maximizes a specific quality function defined for general metric spaces. Main advantages regard the computational efficiency of the procedure as well as the possibility to inspect intercluster and intracluster properties of the resulting communities. The numerical analysis highlights peculiar relationships between countries and provides a rich set of information that can hardly be achieved within alternative clustering approaches.

     

A spatial theory of urban segregation

We provide a competitive equilibrium theory of urban segregation in a linear city. Households demand consumption and housing along the city and are exposed to neighborhood externalities. We show that equilibria that are robust to small coalitional deviations are segregated. Our results explain urban segregation in a standard neoclassical framework and shed new light on the difficulties faced by authorities to integrate cities.