The US Budget Deficit in Perspective

Is the budget deficit the major problem facing the new administration? Giles Keating of Credit Suisse First Boston in London, argues that the size and significance of the Federal budget deficit is greatly exaggerated.     

SOME HUMAN ASPECTS OF GIVING AND TAKING FARM MANAGEMENT ADVICE

Superimposed on, or underlying, the technical aspects of giving farm management advice are a variety of human considerations. The techniques used and the advice given cannot be divorced from the individuals involved and the way in which advice is communicated. Management advice will be sought for a variety of reasons and from a variety of sources. It will have its own special problems, stemming from the nature of the subject itself, and will generate its own longer term benefits. Differing advisory styles exist but it is possible to suggest some general guidelines and conclusions.     

The Japanisation of Xerox

The impact of Japanese competition has led to attempts by Western organisations to implement elements of Japanese management. The process has been described as'Japanisation'. Here the authors examine the Japanisation of Rank Xerox and Xerox Corporation. Xerox has benefitted from the learning experience of its Japanese joint venture, Fuji Xerox, and has been described as the most'Japanised'of Western companies.     

Discriminating between autoregressive forms: A Monte Carlo comparison of Bayesian and ad hoc methods

The paper considers the problem of discriminating between the autoregressive forms of a Koyck distributed lag model and a regression model with autocorrelated distrubances. Several interpretations of an ad hoc rule-of-thumb suggested by Griliches are compared with Bayesian posterior odds analysis in a Monte Carlo experiment. The Bayesian analysis is generally superior to the rules-of-thumb, the latter exhibiting large probabilities of type I error, and low power. The rules-of-thumb excessively favour the distributed lag model, while the Bayesian method is free from such bias. All methods improve with increased sample size.     

THE A.E.S.: A COMMENTARY ON ITS PAST,PRESENT AND FUTURE

This commentary, written during the Society's fiftieth anniversary year, describes its origins and early activities and traces the evolution of its Conferences and the Journal of Agricultural Economics. It comments on the professional and non-professional achievements of the Society to date, and briefly, considers the future. Emphasis is given to the Society itself rather than to individual members although a series of appendices list many of the individuals who have been especially involved in the conduct of the Society's affairs.     

Outside Looking In: Resisting Colonial Discourses of Aboriginality

Using postcolonial theory, this article examines the ways in which the staff and members of the board of directors of Outside Looking In (OLI), a youth development through arts- and leisure-based program for Aboriginal youth in Canada, respond to discourses about Aboriginality. Based on interviews with OLI staff and board members, field notes, and the review of archival documents, we argue that OLI staff and board members encounter three dominant discourses: hip-hop is not an Aboriginal activity, Aboriginal youth should learn through mainstream forms of education, and Aboriginal peoples are inherently flawed. We show, however, how OLI exemplifies Bhabha's (1994) notion of hybrid third spaces because it reflects Aboriginal youth's contemporary cultural interests in hip-hop, it integrates kinesthetic education into Eurocentric learning regimes, and its participants return the colonial gaze at OLI's annual performance. OLI exemplifies how leisure activities can be used to challenge colonial discourses of Aboriginality in Canada.     

怎样恢复良好的收益?——投资银行面临全球衰退的挑战

近年来,许多投资银行采取了基于建立全球覆盖的商业模式.这一方法在收入不断增加时是合理的.但在今天更为严酷的商业环境中,同样的策略被过多地运用,除最大的竞争者外,其它竞争者几乎都处于劣势.     

Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1

The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centres on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We aim to contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than 150 export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used empirically to examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings.The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications – Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.     

Is life more risky in the open? Household risk-coping and the opening of China's labor markets

This paper uses a unique panel of data from rural China to analyze the impact of expanding connections to off-farm labor markets on the income and consumption of farm households. With stronger village ties to both migrant and local off-farm labor markets, households in previously autarkic village communities experience reduced exposure to shocks affecting agricultural production. The analyses presented in this paper control for the persistent effect of past shocks influencing income and consumption, household attrition potentially correlated with shocks, and endogeneity of household demographic composition, land holdings and village network connections to migrant and local labor markets.     

Bioenergy in Southern Africa: An opportunity for regional integration?

ABSTRACT

This introductory paper sets out the rationale for revisiting questions surrounding biofuel futures in Southern Africa and exploring the case for the establishment of a regional market. This contrasts with most research that has focused upon benefits and risks of production and consumption for individual countries. The analysis in this issue suggests that while benefits exist, the key challenges that have stifled production and consumption to date would need to be overcome. Unlocking trade requires relaxing requirements for South African manufacturers to source all their feedstock domestically. Key among factors to encourage production is resolving agricultural investment processes, particularly designing inclusive business models and clarifying land acquisition processes.