Expected Future Budget Deficits,the Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics in a Finite Horizon Model

This paper uses an optimizing open economy general-equilibrium model to investigate the macroeconomic effects of current and expected future budget deficits. It is shown that current and expected future budget deficits are positively correlated with the current account deficit, the capital stock and the real exchange rate, but negatively correlated with the domestic real interest rate and consumption, along the stable path approaching the steady state. The paper also demonstrates that the world real interest rate is positively correlated with consumption, foreign assets and the domestic real interest rate, but negatively correlated with the capital stock and the real exchange rate. Received April 11, 2001; revised version received October 25, 2001     

The cost of railroad regulation: the disintegration of American agricultural markets in the interwar period

This article investigates the costs of transport regulation using the example of agricultural markets in the US. Using a large database of prices by state of agricultural commodities, we find that dispersion fell for many commodities until the First World War. We demonstrate that this reflected changes in transport costs which in turn in the long run depended on productivity growth in railroads. The year 1920 marked a change in this relationship, however, and between the First and Second World Wars we find considerable disintegration of agricultural markets, ultimately as a consequence of the 1920 Transportation Act. We argue that this benefited railroad companies in the 1920s and workers in the 1930s, and we put forward an estimate of the welfare losses for the consumers of railroad services (that is, agricultural producers and final consumers).     

A note on testing instrument validity for the identification of LATE

In this paper, we show that the testable implications derived in Huber and Mellace (Rev Econ Stat 97:398, 2015) are the best possible to detect invalid instruments in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects and endogeneity. We also provide formal proof of the fact that those testable implications are only necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for instrument validity.     

Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

We propose independence and conditional coverage tests which are aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e., joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.     

The Impact of Liberalisation and Globalisation on Within-country Income Inequality

The paper reviews changes in within-country income inequalityover the last forty years, with particular attention to theyears of 1980–2000, against the background of the inequalityshifts intervened during the globalisation of 1870–1914.Withincountry inequality appears to have risen to differentextents in two thirds of the 73 countries analysed, overturningin several cases prior trends towards lower inequality. Forthe majority of the countries analysed, the paper rejects thehypotheses that such rise is due to a worsening of the traditionalcauses of inequality, such as high land concentration and inequalityin education, or to technological changes. Most of the recentsurge in income polarisation would appear to be related to thepolicy drive towards domestic deregulation and external liberalisation,though the specific impact of each policy instrument appearto vary considerably. (JEL D31, F02)     

Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration

There is a long-standing debate among academics about the effect of immigration on native internal migration decisions. If immigrants displace natives this may indicate a direct cost of immigration in the form of decreased employment opportunity for native workers. Moreover, displacement would also imply that cross-region analyses of wage effects systematically underestimate the consequences of immigration. The widespread use of such area studies for the US and other countries makes it especially important to know whether a native internal response to immigration truly occurs. This paper introduces a microsimulation methodology to test for inherent bias in regression models that have been used in the literature. We show that some specifications have built biases into their models, thereby casting doubt on the validity of their results. We then provide a brief empirical analysis with a panel of observed US state-by-skill data. Together, our evidence argues against the existence of native displacement. This implies that cross-region analyses of immigration’s effect on wages are still informative.     

End-of-life care in United States: current reality and future promise--a policy review

Data collection and analysis of that data are vital to developing effective outcome measures when it comes to improvements in the cost and quality of delivered health care. The present state of end-of-life care in the United States is evaluated, focusing on statistics of disparities in access to and type of care provided across the country. Although only a few portions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act deal with end-of-life care reform, the multiple innovative efforts occurring at state and local levels are proving very effective in improving end-of-life care. Possible improvements and obstacles to those improvements, and the involvement of the profession of nursing are highlighted. The focus of this investigation is to determine if the evidence supports the following imperative: that the money spent for end-of-life care be spent in a manner that benefits the patient and complements his or her wishes.