Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.     

GAME THEORETIC MODELS OF MIXED OLIGOPOLY

Abstract. In this paper we review various models that have been proposed for the study of mixed oligopoly, that is markets in which private and public firm compete on equal basis using only market instruments.     

风险税务筹划决策方法探讨

随着税务筹划理论与实务的研究与发展,风险已经成为人们在税务筹划决策中关注的重要因素之一.对涉及风险的税务筹划,筹划者需要重点解决两大问题:第一,税务筹划风险的度量问题;第二,恰当地选择风险税务筹划决策方法.关于第一个问题,我们曾在《风险税务筹划方案的衡量与选择》(经济与管理研究,2005.9)一文中进行过探讨.本文将集中探讨风险税务筹划决策方法问题,即运用风险型决策方法解决风险税务筹划决策问题.     

Estimating the Marginal Contribution to Systemic Risk by A CoVaR‐model Based on Copula Functions and Extreme Value Theory

In this paper, we quantify the contribution to systemic risk of a single financial institution by utilizing a analytical framework based on the principles of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for modelling the marginal distributions and on the properties of copula functions for describing the dependence structure between the financial system and the single financial institution. Among the several systemic risk measures proposed nowadays by academics and estimated by public data, we choose to adopt as systemic risk metric the Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CoVaR). We select a co‐risk measure like the CoVaR because of its macro‐dimension that allows us to integrate the dependence structure of the single financial institution and of the whole financial system in the systemic risk measurement. While the copula functions have been utilized in some pioneer studies on this area, the EVT principles have not yet been implemented in such a context of systemic risk contribution measurement.     

中国省域劳动就业影响因素的空间计量分析

利用2000-2009年中国29个省级单位数据建立空间计量模型对影响劳动就业的各因素及其空间效应进行检验分析。结果显示:省际劳动就业存在显著的空间相关性,邻近省域就业的溢出效应对本省具有正向影响,且该效应从东部到西部地区呈阶梯状依次递减,东部地区就业较中西部地区具有更强的区间联动性。省域技术进步、财政支出、市场化和产业结构优化无论从全国层面还是地区层面均对劳动就业具有显著的促进作用,且财政支出对中西部就业的影响明显大于东部地区;城市化与实际工资对东部就业影响不显著,但能够显著促进中西部地区就业增长。促进区间联动、加快市场化、城市化和产业结构优化步伐、完善和优化财政支出结构是增加就业的重要举措。     

产业技术创新战略联盟的性质、分类与政府支持

产业技术创新战略联盟是合作研发的组织模式之一,承载着产业发展的目标,通过合作研发取得产业共性技术,并在联盟和全行业中扩散,最终实现产业竞争力的提升。产业共性技术的复杂性和准公共品性质、联盟合作创新的困境,决定了政府支持产业技术创新战略联盟的必要性。产业技术创新战略联盟有多种类型,政府应针对不同类型的联盟提供不同的支持。在明确产业技术创新战略联盟的内涵及性质的基础上,按照3个维度对其进行了分类,并借鉴国外经验给出了当前我国政府提供政策支持的建议。     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺研究

目的:探索刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺。方法:采用正交实验,以总皂苷质量为指标,优化提取工艺;采用单因素实验优化制剂工艺。结果:在最佳提取工艺条件下,刺芪参胶囊提取物中的总皂苷含量为12.19 mg·g-1;以糊精作为填充剂、硬脂酸镁为助流剂、95%乙醇为黏合剂制备胶囊剂。结论:刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺稳定可行。     

Does apprenticeship improve job opportunities? A regression discontinuity approach

In Italy the main difference between apprentices and other types of temporary workers is that apprentices must receive firm-provided training. The firm incentive in hiring apprentices consists in paying lower wages and labour taxes. Using an Italian administrative dataset containing information on the jobs started between January 2009 and June 2012, we estimate the effect of apprenticeship on the hazard function to a permanent job. Identification is based on a regression discontinuity design. We find that, for 29-year-old workers, apprenticeships are “long entrance halls” towards permanent contracts, especially within the firm where the apprenticeship is performed.