Cropland use,yields, and droughts: spatial data modeling for Burkina Faso and Niger

For countries with recurrent droughts, the design of drought impact mitigation measures could benefit from analyses of determinants of yields and prices of local crops at regional and district level. This study applies dynamic spatial panel data regression models to yields and prices of four major food crops across regions of Burkina Faso and Niger, over sample periods between 1984 and 2006. Results lend support to mainly simultaneous spatial spillovers, particularly for millet and cowpea prices and sorghum yields in Niger, and maize yields in Burkina Faso. After accounting for these effects, most crop yields are found to be weakly price‐responsive, as envisaged by a supply‐side geographical diffusion hypothesis. Seasonal rainfall elasticity estimates suggest that dominant food crops have slight advantage margins in terms of relative resilience to rainfall shortages. However, this result is to be weighed against low millet yields in Niger, and marked drops in sorghum yields during officially declared droughts in Burkina Faso.     

浅述出入境检验检疫与非传统安全问题的治理

在当前全球经济贸易自由化和区域经济一体化不断深入的趋势下,经济金融动荡、资源能源短缺、贸易保护主义、自然生态环境恶化、传染病大规模暴发、产品质量与食品安全以及生物恐怖主义等在内的诸多非传统安全问题对我国的经济社会发展和公共安全构成了重大威胁。而科学发展观理论的提出,正是重点针对上述问题,以确保全面协调可持续发展,构建以人为本的和谐社会。出入境检验检疫是我国参与全球化秩序最早也是融入最充分的工作体系之一,本文在对非传统安全问题内涵、成因及传播的一般规律进行解释的基础上,分析了非传统安全问题与出入境检验检疫之间的内在联系,并结合笔者个人思考,给出了在科学发展观的指导下,出入境检验检疫如何积极参与我国非传统安全问题治理的建议。     

中国孝道文化的时代演进及其老年学意义

对中国传统孝道文化中有关生育、供养、齐家、治国等内容进行了探讨 ,认为“孝”的内涵伴随着时代发展而有新的历史演进 ,即生育继嗣思想日趋弱化 ;供养内容出现“物退心进”趋势 ;治国齐家的作用有本质改变。新孝道文化的确立 ,将为老年人实现社会共享、体现社会价值提供理论的支持体系 ,为建设一个有利于老年人口健康发展的社会创造良好的文化环境     

中国游客赴捷克自助游的旅游流网络结构特征

捷克作为“一带一路”境外路线中重要的节点,是中国游客的重要旅游目的地之一。利用火车头脚本编辑器采集中国游客赴捷克游记,利用Ucinet软件和Netdraw软件,选取程度中心性、接近中心性、中介中心性等指标对网络结构特征进行分析。结果发现:游客关注的景点与政府推荐的景点存在差异;核心景点具有空间聚集性;整体网络密度低,景点之间联结仍不充分,但具有社团属性;中国游客主要选取租车自驾,其次是大巴、火车等交通方式,捷克城市内部公共交通便利。     

中国农村减贫成效测度、分解及影响因素研究——基于分布动态学框架的CFPS数据分析

测算农村减贫成效并考察减贫成效的影响因素对我国打赢"脱贫攻坚战"具有重要的现实意义。本文基于覆盖我国东、中、西和东北四大地区的CFPS调查数据,在Quah(1997)的分布动态学(Distribution dynamics)基础上构建了完整的减贫成效分析框架。首先测算出各地区农村家庭贫困内部状态的Markov转移概率矩阵,并在此基础上构建了可分解的绝对、相对减贫指数,以综合考察各地区的农村减贫成效,随后本文通过首次构造的"条件Markov模型"进一步考察了减贫成效的影响因素。研究结果发现:(1)样本考察期内,我国各地区的农村贫困状况随着时间的积累逐渐变好,贫困发生率均有所下降;(2)减贫过程中仍存在着脱贫又返贫的现象,农村家庭的深度贫困固化问题比轻度贫困问题更加严重,意味着扶贫开发工作正式进入攻坚时期,扶贫难度加大;(3)家庭成年成员特征、家庭特征以及收入类型对农村减贫成效的影响显著性情况存在着时段和区域的异质性。其中,家庭成年成员受教育水平、家庭中是否有成员从事有薪酬的农业劳动、工资性和营业性收入对家庭的贫困状态变动具有更显著的影响。基于此,政府应贯彻落实精准扶贫,将扶贫重点放在中西部地区和处于深度贫困的家庭,另外应再调整和倾斜扶贫资源与扶贫政策,将提高农民受教育水平、增加非农业就业机会作为主要减贫途径,将促进农村工资性和营业性收入增长作为主要的政策倾斜方向。     

利益集团视角下的三农问题现状及对策研究

本文针对三农问题,首先运用集体行动理论,考察农民群体无法形成有竞争力的利益集团的原因：在此基础上通过建模构划出政府决策机制作为框架,对政府决策过程中力量悬殊的利益集团和群体之间的博弈结果进行分析;进而考察了现实中政府的城市偏向性政策形成的机理;最后从促成农民利益集团的形成、增强农民利益群体的力量和优化博弈三个角度提出政策建议。     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.     

When quality signals talk: Evidence from the Turin hotel industry

This study analyzes the relationship between quality signals and price setting through the application of hedonic price functions. The model proposals also include variables relating to land use policies and tourism development strategies. A simultaneous equation model endogenously estimates quality signals. This method is appropriate for analyzing emerging urban destinations, as characterized by the presence of an expanding hotel industry. The results are based on a dataset of 145 hotels in Turin, Italy. The empirical findings reveal that reputation-based quality signals help explain tariff levels. Price proposals also include a premium for quality assured hotels, defining some limits of the current hotel classification system. The empirical evidence has significant marketing implications for the hospitality industry’s competitiveness, since the results clarify the impact of quality signals on price level.     

“主体-技术”协同视角下的战略性新兴产业创新网络分类研究——以新能源汽车产业为例

本文以“主体-技术”协同视角来分析战略性新兴产业创新网络形成的内在机理和分类模式。在结合2-模网络理论基础上,从核心技术和创新主体两个维度出发,将战略性新兴产业创新网络分为单核心实验室型、单核心产业链型、单核心辅助型、单核心复合型、多核心实验室型、多核心产业链型、多核心辅助型和多核心复合型。同时,以中国新能源汽车产业为例,通过实证分析发现：除了单核心辅助型和多核心辅助型之外,其它6种模式均存在,并进一步对其创新网络的分类模式及相关特征进行了全面分析。