A Holy Alliance: Collusion in the Renaissance Europe Alum Market

On June 11, 1470, representatives of Pope Paul II and Ferdinand, King of Naples concluded a cartel agreement to restrict competition in the sale of alum. The agreement was one element of a broader plan to monopolize the sale of alum throughout Christendom. We discuss the background of the cartel agreement and analyze its terms (which include arrangements to facilitate detection of and reduce the profitability of defection) and the constraints that limited, but did not eliminate, Rome’s ability to extract economic profit from the European alum market.     

The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

A Range-Based Finite Difference Approach to Valuing Options in Markov Switching Regimes*

Recognizing the inflexibility inherent in standard capital budgeting analysis, recent research has provided new insights using a real options framework. This paper uses the explicit finite difference approach to value real options. However, instead of assuming a constant return and volatility term, we assume that these variables are sensitive to changes in the economic environment. Accordingly, we adapt our approach to incorporate a Markov switching feature. Further, we recognize that some of the modeling assumptions can be violated in a practical application. Therefore, we recommend using range based estimates of the real option value, as opposed to a point estimate.     

Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels

Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only through best estimates based on noisy market information. The concept of incomplete information introduces an element of stochastic filtering theory in constructing what we term “filtered Esscher martingales”. We make use of this family of martingales to develop pricing kernel models. Examples of bond price models are examined, and we show that the choice of the random mixture has a significant effect on the model dynamics and the types of movements observed in the associated yield curves. Parameter sensitivity is analysed and option price processes are derived. We extend the class of pricing kernel models by considering a weighted heat kernel approach, and develop models driven by mixtures of Markov processes.     

Orchestrating corporate social responsibility in the multinational enterprise

Research Summary: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest significant resources in corporate social responsibility (CSR), but their attempts to build a global “social brand” may clash with the execution of operational strategies at a subsidiary level. Using a game-theoretic model, this research addresses the complex interplay of different contingencies that shape the coordination and control challenges facing MNEs when they implement global CSR strategies, including brand spillovers, the risk of public scandals caused by irresponsible behavior, the size of the MNE network, as well as the roles played by nongovernmental organizations and altruistic managers. Challenging the view of CSR as insurance against lapses of responsible conduct, our model shows that investment in social brands helps avoid irresponsible practices across the MNE network, thereby inducing subsidiaries to “walk the talk.” Managerial Summary: Global social brands are increasingly valuable to multinational enterprises (MNEs), which makes the control and coordination of responsible behavior across their network of foreign subsidiaries a relevant managerial challenge. Indeed, lapses of responsible conduct at the subsidiary level often generate reputational damage at the multinational level. This research explores several mechanisms that help MNEs manage this coordination and control challenge. First, it shows under what conditions MNEs can leverage their investments in social brands to induce responsible practices across their global network. Second, it illustrates how MNEs can exploit collaborations with nongovernmental organizations to reduce the costs of coordinating and controlling their subsidiaries. Finally, it identifies conditions under which MNEs benefit from hiring altruistic managers to run their subsidiaries.     

Relational paths in business network dynamics: Evidence from the fashion industry

This paper addresses the topic of business network dynamics. Starting with a review of the IMP literature, it aims to shed light on potential relational paths by which a firm may reconfigure its business network. To this end, two main emerging paths are described: integration and substitution. Methodologically, the paper presents and discusses the data collected during a longitudinal case analysis of four Italian textile producers. The main implications for business networks stemming from these emerging relational paths are described. In particular, the main findings from the cases analyzed suggest that business network dynamics should be interpreted in terms of the processes of both business network change and consolidation.     

The impact of local and external university knowledge on the creation of knowledge-intensive firms: evidence from the Italian case

This paper investigates how far in space university knowledge goes to breed the creation of knowledge-intensive firms (KIFs), depending on the nature (either codified or tacit) and quality of this knowledge. We consider the impact of knowledge codified in academic patents and scientific publications and tacit knowledge embodied in university graduates on KIF creation in Italian provinces in 2010, while distinguishing between local university knowledge created by universities located in the same province and external university knowledge created by universities located outside the province. Our econometric estimates indicate that the positive effects of scientific publications and university graduates are confined within the boundaries of the province in which universities are located. Conversely, the creation of new KIFs in a focal province is positively affected by both local and external university knowledge codified in academic patents, even though the positive effect of this external knowledge rapidly diminishes with geographic distance. Furthermore, the above effects are confined to high-quality universities; low-quality universities have little effect on KIF creation.     

Climate Change and Asset Prices: Are Corporate Carbon Disclosure and Performance Priced Appropriately?

This paper empirically assesses the relevance of information on corporate climate change disclosure and performance to asset prices, and discusses whether this information is priced appropriately. Findings indicate that corporate disclosures of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, to a lesser extent, carbon performance are value relevant. We use hand‐collected information on quantitative GHG emissions for 433 European companies and build portfolios based on GHG disclosure and performance. We regress portfolios on a standard four factor model extended for industry effects over the years 2005 to 2009. Results show that investors achieved abnormal risk‐adjusted returns of up to 13.05% annually by exploiting inefficiently priced positive effects of (complete) GHG emissions disclosure and good corporate climate change performance in terms of GHG efficiency. Results imply that, firstly, information costs involved in carbon disclosure and management do not present a burden on corporate financial resources. Secondly, investors should not neglect carbon disclosure and performance when making investment decisions. Thirdly, during the period analysed, financial markets were inefficient in pricing publicly available information on carbon disclosure and performance. Mandatory and standardised information on carbon performance would consequently not only increase market efficiency but result in better allocation of capital within the real economy.     

Gaussian process regression for pricing variable annuities with stochastic volatility and interest rate

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we investigate value and Greeks computation of a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) variable annuity, when both stochastic volatility...