Occupational and Job Mobility in the US*

We propose a new methodology to measure worker mobility across occupations and jobs in the US, building on the limited longitudinal dimension of monthly CPS data. For the period 1979–2006, we find that about 3.5% of male workers employed in two consecutive months report different three‐digit occupations. This rate is procyclical, mildly rising in the 1980s and falling after 1995. We also revise upward current estimates of aggregate job‐to‐job mobility since 1994, from 2.7% to 3.2% of employment per month. Despite extreme similarity of average levels and time‐series behavior, occupational and job mobility are only weakly correlated.     

Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting

This paper uses real-time data to mimic real-time GDP forecasting activity. Through automatic searches for the best indicators for predicting GDP one and four steps ahead, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of adaptive models using different data vintages, and produce three main findings. First, despite data revisions, the forecasting performance of models with indicators is better, but this advantage tends to vanish over longer forecasting horizons. Second, the practice of using fully updated datasets at the time the forecast is made (i.e., taking the best available measures of today's economic situation) does not appear to bring any effective improvement in forecasting ability: the first GDP release is predicted equally well by models using real-time data as by models using the latest available data. Third, although the first release is a rational forecast of GDP data after all statistical revisions have taken place, the forecast based on the latest available GDP data (i.e. the “temporarily best” measures) may be improved by combining preliminary official releases with one-step-ahead forecasts.     

Currency substitution and the stability of the Italian demand for money before the entry into the monetary union, 1972–1998

A money demand function for M2 is estimated for Italy for the period 1972–1998 within an error correction framework. This period has been characterized by major structural changes in the Italian financial system and by major changes in monetary policy. This study takes these changes into account. Moreover, currency substitution, especially between Italy and Germany is incorporated into the model. By accounting for structural breaks and currency substitution a stable money demand function can be found.Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 373, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Uwe Hassler, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt, and Carsten Trenkler, SFB 373, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, for helpful comments. An earlier version has been presented at the ESEM 2001, Lausanne.     

Endogenous Money: An Analytical Approach

The paper proposes a constructive interpretation of the Post Keynesian debate between horizontalists and structuralists. Both approaches defend an endogenous money theory, but they discriminate between different analyses of the credit market and the reserve market. A more general model encompassing both approaches is presented here and some of its implications are discussed.     

Delegating management to experts

Owners of property and assets frequently delegate decisions about operating and maintaining their property to managers who are better informed about local market conditions. We analyze how owners optimally contract with managers who vary in their expertise at prescribing service. We show that the most expert managers offer the greatest variation in operating recommendations. Owners benefit from dealing with experts provided they contract sequentially, whereby terms are negotiated gradually as the manager acquires information.