Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity. First version received: Jan. 2000/Final version received: March 2000     

Shaping Sustainable Value Chains: Network Determinants of Supply Chain Governance Models

Globalization theories posit organizational convergence, suggesting that Codes of Ethics will become commonplace and include greater consideration of global issues. This study explores the degree to which the Codes of Ethics of 157 corporations on the Global 500 and/or Fortune 500 lists include the “third generation” of corporate social responsibility. Unlike first generation ethics, which focus on the legal context of corporate behavior, and second generation ethics, which locate responsibility to groups directly associated with the corporation, third generation ethics transcend both the profit motive and the immediate corporate environment. Third generation ethics are grounded in responsibilities to the larger interconnected environment. The results of the study suggest convergence, insofar as Codes of Ethics are becoming standard communication features of corporations across region and industrial sector but still manifest a primary concern with profits and those behaviors which are mandated by law. Only corporations headquartered in the European Union demonstrate a significant degree of global consciousness and reflexivity. However, there is some evidence that third generation ethics and thinking are becoming part of the corporate landscape. More then three quarters of the corporations made at least some reference to third generation ethics.     

Selective immigration policies, human capital accumulation and migration duration in infinite horizon

An increasing literature fosters selective immigration policies as a tool to increase human capital in both source and destination countries. These policies are supposed to prompt incentives to education, and–if selection is sufficiently severe–to increase the human capital stock in source countries. Nonetheless, when compared to open migration, selective policies make returns to education uncertain, and they may harm incentives to invest in human capital. As a consequence, they may reduce the human capital stock even though selection is “severe”. Moreover, when repeated migration is possible, they backfire on migration duration. We obtain our results in an infinite-horizon model that, unlike the current literature, places no restriction on the number of possible migration spells and allows for the possibility of a forced emigration.     

Advertising effect on primary demand: a cointegration approach

This paper addresses the question of the effects of advertising on the primary demand for whisky in Italy. In contrast to previous works, this issue is investigated in a multivariate framework by referring to Johansen's cointegration technique; this choice allows the non-stationary dynamics of aggregate marketing data to be taken into account, as well as their short-term and long-term relationships. Even if advertising is linked to real prices and sales in the long run, our analysis reveals no evidence supporting the effectiveness of advertising on the aggregate demand for whisky, which is essentially determined by the real price, both in the short and the long term.     

Food safety issues: From Enlightened Elitism towards Deliberative Democracy? An overview of EFSA’s “Public Consultation” instrument

Following the BSE crisis, the importance of reassuring European consumers and involving them in debate about food safety management issues is generally recognised. Indeed, consulting stakeholders is one of the European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) main duties, as stated in its founding regulation (art. 42, whereas 56), where EFSA must have “effective contacts with consumer representatives, producer representatives, processors and any other interested parties”. Even if not clearly obliged to, EFSA has also opted to consider lay citizens’ opinion (under an interpretation of art. 42, wh. 40 of the 178 Reg.) in order to enhance “trust” in food safety. Beyond having formally established meetings with restricted access for participants – like the Stakeholders’ Consultative Platform and the Annual Colloquium, – EFSA engages in its “Public Consultation” web-based Window (PCW). It allows listening to anybody who wishes to submit comments on technical issues.     

Food health claims – What consumers understand

Issues pertaining to consumer understanding of food health claims are complex and difficult to disentangle because there is a surprising lack of multidisciplinary research aimed at evaluating how consumers are influenced by factors impacting on the evaluation process. In the EU, current legislation is designed to protect consumers from misleading and false claims but there is much debate about the concept of the ‘average consumer’ referred to in the legislation.     

On the existence of shadow prices

For utility maximization problems under proportional transaction costs, it has been observed that the original market with transaction costs can sometimes be replaced by a frictionless shadow market that yields the same optimal strategy and utility. However, the question of whether or not this indeed holds in generality has remained elusive so far. In this paper, we present a counterexample which shows that shadow prices may fail to exist. On the other hand, we prove that short selling constraints are a sufficient condition to warrant their existence, even in very general multi-currency market models with possibly discontinuous bid–ask spreads.