Firm–bank credit network,business cycle and macroprudential policy

We present an agent-based model to study firm–bank credit market interactions in different phases of the business cycle. The business cycle is exogenously set, and it can give rise to various scenarios. Compared to other models in this literature strand, we improve the mechanism according to which the dividends are distributed, including the possibility of stock repurchase by firms. In addition, we locate firms and banks over a space and firms may ask credit to many banks, resulting in a complex spatial network. The model reproduces a long list of stylized facts and their dynamic evolution as described by the cross-correlations among model variables. The model allows us to test the effectiveness of rules designed by the current financial regulation, such as the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer. We find that the effectiveness of this rule changes in different business cycle environments and this should be considered by policy makers.

     

Climate change shocks and socially responsible investments

Climate change's impact on investor behavior is a scantly investigated area in finance. This paper examines the performance of socially responsible exchange trade funds (ETFs) concerning conventional ETFs, in response to climate change events. We proxy climate change signals with a list of natural disaster events that NASA scientists relate to climate change. We contribute to existing literature, by using a very extensive information set of ETF strategies, not influenced by rating agencies' subjective evaluation policies, and covering almost 90% of the universe of worldwide sustainability thematic-oriented ETFs. This sample allows us to identify the socially responsible investment behavior in response to unpredictable climate change shocks. Our identification strategy accounts for endogeneity concerns and relies on two-stage least square (2SLS) approach finding that responsible investors react to climate change events by purchasing socially responsible investments. The relationship between climate change signals and return of investment in themes linked to the development of sustainability is positive. Interestingly enough, the sign of this relationship is different, when we disentangle the empirical results according to the asset type, confirming that investors shift their investments from equity funds to bond funds when market sentiment worsens. Our results indicate that policymakers should increase the support of firms adopting environmentally conscious business practices, while managers should boost a sustainable business strategy.     

Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the financial reporting quality of US firms over 1999–2015. We use accruals-based...     

The use of smart biosensors during a food safety incident: Consumers' cognitive-behavioural responses and willingness to pay

Intelligent and active packaging could allow consumers to control cognitive reactions linked to the risk of consuming food products contaminated by microbiological pathogens and thus mitigating negative consequences of food safety incidents. However, despite advances in technology, consumers' reactions and willingness to pay for active and intelligent packaging in the absence and presence of food safety incidents remain somewhat unexplored. To fill such a gap this study incorporates protection motivation theory (PMT) within a contingent valuation survey conducted in the UK to explore consumers' behavioural responses to risk communication in the absence and presence of a food safety incident. These responses were moderated by the possibility of buying hypothetical meat products marketed with biosensors informing consumers of the presence of bacteria post-purchase. A singular approach was developed to identify the following four behavioural responses of the PMT's cognitive mediating process: no response, fear, low response and danger control. Results indicate that the theoretical components of PMT play a different role in the absence and presence of food safety incidents. Respondents who receive risk information are willing to pay more than other participants to adopt precautionary behaviour and that purchasing behaviour varied across these four cognitive-behavioural responses. Governmental institutions, the food industry and retailers should consider working together to reassure consumers by investing in technology that may help consumers to mitigate fear during a food safety incident, but also to develop appropriate risk communication strategies that should focus more on the cognitive-behavioural outcomes analysed in this study.     

Optimality and duality in nonsmooth semi-infinite optimization,using a weak constraint qualification

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Variational analysis, a subject that has been vigorously developing for the past 40 years, has proven itself to be extremely effective at describing nonsmooth...     

Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.

     

The effect of female representation on political budget cycle and public expenditure: Evidence from Italian municipalities

This study analyzes the impact of the gender composition of political institutions on the political budget cycle (PBC) and on the size and structure of public expenditure. An instrumental variable approach is implemented to evaluate the influence of female politicians in municipal councils. The introduction of gender quotas for Italian municipalities is used as an exogenous variation in female participation in politics. The results show that: (i) fluctuations in local public spending are only slightly affected by the presence of a wider female representation; (ii) an increase in the number of elected women reduces the overall amount of public expenditure; (iii) this reduction involves fields typically affected by PBC (e.g., roads' maintenance) except those related to females' needs (e.g., kindergarten, primary education, and social care).     

A flexible lattice framework for valuing options on assets paying discrete dividends and variable annuities embedding GMWB riders

In a market where a stochastic interest rate component characterizes asset dynamics, we propose a flexible lattice framework to evaluate and manage options on equities paying discrete dividends and variable annuities presenting some provisions, like a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit. The framework is flexible in that it allows to combine financial and demographic risk, to embed in the contract early exercise features, and to choose the dynamics for interest rates and traded assets. A computational problem arises when each dividend (when valuing an option) or withdrawal (when valuing a variable annuity) is paid, because the lattice lacks its recombining structure. The proposed model overcomes this problem associating with each node of the lattice a set of representative values of the underlying asset (when valuing an option) or of the personal subaccount (when valuing a variable annuity) chosen among all the possible ones realized at that node. Extensive numerical experiments confirm the model accuracy and efficiency.

     

COVID-19, ESG investing,and the resilience of more sustainable stocks: Evidence from European firms

Following the COVID-19 outbreak, orientation toward sustainability is a critical factor in ensuring firm survival and growth. Using a large sample of 1,204 firms in Europe during the year 2020, this study investigates how more sustainable firms fare during the pandemic compared with other firms in terms of risk–return trade-off and stock market liquidity. We also highlight the drivers of the resilience of more sustainable firms to the pandemic. Particularly, we document that higher levels of cash holdings and liquid assets in the pre-COVID period help these firms to perform and absorb the COVID-19 externalities better than other firms. Our results are robust to a host of econometric models, including GMM estimations and several measures of stock market performance. These findings contribute to the theoretical and empirical debate on the role of the sustainability as a source of corporate resilience to unexpected shocks.     

Quasivariational inequalities for dynamic competitive economic equilibrium problems in discrete time

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Equilibrium is a central concept in numerous disciplines including economics, management science, operations research, and engineering. We are concerned with an...