经济结构变化与经济增长

卡尔多事实描述的是发达工业化经济在短期内的现象,如果我们考虑欠发达国家,或者考虑工业化早期,卡尔多事实所反映的规律就会消失。一般而言,人均产出增长率与人均产出水平两者之间表现出非线性的驼峰形(hump-shaped)关系。本文认为,这种关系是由于经济内部结构的变化(即农业、制造业和服务业的相对比重变化)以及城乡劳动力转移和城市化引起的。进一步,本文提出了两种相互竞争的模型,一种认为经济增长由工业部门驱动,另一种则认为城市化是经济增长的动力。两种模型都与经济结构变化和经济增长的主要特征吻合,至于哪一个模型能更好地反映经济现实,则还需要进一步验证。     

Industrial relations law,employment security and collective bargaining in India: myths,realities and hopes

This article examines the debate on reforms in industrial relations law in India, needed to support its economic liberalisation programme. Analysing a distinctively Indian experience of state intervention in industrial relations, it concludes that the thrust of the reform should be towards entrusting union recognition and promotion of dispute settlement to an authority that is independent of the state executive.     

技术标准对产业竞争力的影响研究

技术标准对经济和产业的发展起到了很大的作用。文章以波特的钻石模型为分析框架,研究技术标准与产业竞争力的关系,探讨技术标准对产业竞争力的影响机理。     

The demand for game day attendance in college football: an analysis of the 1997 Division 1‐A season

This paper develops a predictive model which includes game, team and university specific factors that are likely to influence game day demand for Division 1‐A college football. Attendance during the 1997 regular season is used as the dependent variable. Tobit estimates of two separate equations reveal that the quality of both teams, traditional rivalry and membership of specific conferences have a significant influence on demand. In addition, colleges with lower enrollments and a higher percentage of off‐campus students attract smaller crowds. The presence of a nearby professional football team also detracts from a college team's drawing power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

实际商业周期:理论、检验与争议

围绕实际商业周期所展开的研究涉及经济学研究的基本方法和经济学家们对经济社会运行的基本认识。与此同时,它也反映了经济学两大流派,即凯恩斯学派和新古典学派之问的争论。本文试图从 RBC 理论的产生背景说起,系统地为读者介绍 RBC 的理论体系以及求解和检验 RBC 模型时所使用的一些技术。与此同时,我们也将揭示 RBC 研究所面临的问题和引发的争论,并在此基础上指出未来 RBC 和宏观经济学理论研究可能的发展方向。     

积极财政政策宏观经济效益分析——基于宏观计量模型的研究

本文通过一个宏观计量模型来研究积极财政政策的宏观经济效益。与传统模型所不同的是，我们的模型不仅考虑了需求，同时也引入了社会的供给能力。研究表明，积极财政政策的实施为我国在2003年底彻底走出通货紧缩的阴影作出了不可磨灭的贡献。而到了2002年，积极财政政策的拉动效应开始递减，这为此后逐渐淡出的积极财政政策提供了一定的依据。     

出生缺陷地理风险因子的空间分析

出生缺陷是影响人口出生质量最重要的因素。大量研究表明,出生缺陷仅仅靠单纯的生物医学研究还不够,多学科的交叉研究是有效探讨出生缺陷病因和预防的唯一出路。利用北京大学人口环境健康组调查数据,分类了能够在地理空间上归属的出生缺陷风险因素,将这些因素存在的空间相关性进行了传统统计分析方法不适宜的风险因子与出生缺陷统计因果之间的研究。探讨了空间分析技术在出生缺陷的地理风险因子研究的一般步骤与关键技术,为出生缺陷研究提供了新的思路。     

拆分招标的供应商数量研究

许多企业在采购时,常常将整笔业务拆分为两个合同:较大的第一合同和较小的第二合同,通过分批二级价格封闭式招标来选择不同的供应商供货。本文通过建立分批招标模型分析了供应商的投标策略和买方的采购策略,得出了当参加第一合同竞标的供应商数目和第二合同新引入的供应商数目满足一个不等式时,拆分招标的采购成本小于整体招标的采购成本,并且指出了拆分比例对拆分招标的采购成本的影响。     

Bank lending rules for managing sovereign risk

A simple domestic lending rule is one that ensures that the loan rate exceeds the bank's cost of capital and the borrower's expected cashflows exceed the terminal value of the loan. Because a sovereign loan is not collateralized and lacks recourse, the domestic lending rule is not adequate for making sovereign lending decisions. Three modifications are suggested. First, the sovereign borrower's time preference for consumption needs to be considered. Second, the domestic borrower's decision to default voluntarily is made after observing the value of the collateral whereas the sovereign borrower's decision is made after observing earnings. In this paper, the sovereign borrower upgrades expectations in a Bayesian manner. Although no lending rule will completely prevent a default, the probability of default can be managed leading to a third modification.