Model uncertainty and aggregated default probabilities: new evidence from Austria

Understanding the determinants of aggregated corporate default probabilities (PDs) has attracted substantial research interest over the past decades. This study addresses two major difficulties in understanding the determinants of aggregate PDs: model uncertainty and multicollinearity among the regressors. We present Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a powerful tool that overcomes model uncertainty. Furthermore, we supplement BMA with ridge regression to mitigate multicollinearity. We apply our approach to an Austrian data set. Our findings suggest that factor prices like short-term interest rates (STIs) and energy prices constitute major drivers of default rates, while firms’ profits reduce the expected number of failures. Finally, we show that the results of our model are fairly robust with respect to the choice of the BMA parameters.     

Accounting for endogeneity in matching function estimation

We show that equilibrium matching models imply that standard estimates of the matching function elasticities are exposed to an endogeneity bias, which arises from the search behavior of agents on either side of the market. We offer an estimation method which, under certain structural assumptions about the process driving shocks to matching efficiency, is immune from that bias. Application of our method to the estimation of a basic version of the matching function using aggregate U.S. data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) suggests that the bias can be quantitatively important.     

The Strategic Social Map of a Nongovernmental Organization

Currently, the traditional states-nation, as far as their social commitments are concerned, are giving way to the nongovernmental organizations (NGO). These organizations have a mission, strategy, and goals different from those organizations looking simply for profits. Nevertheless, NGOs are concerned about using management and information systems at least as good as those used by private companies. Organizations try to develop a social strategy taking their social responsibility as starting point. In this paper, the authors describe how to fix the organization mission, its strategy and goals, and also how to make its action map. A strategy proposal will be described, as well as the way on how to put it into practice. The main goals of this paper is to describe the mission, strategy, and goals of the organization; design its strategic social map; fix the limits of the organization's action; apply the theoretical model to a NGO; and design an information model in order to manage the strategic development. The authors would like to express their gratitude to M. Dolors Celma Benaiges, lecturer at the Escola Universitària del Maresme, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, for her assistance reviewing and translating the paper.     

To Trust or to Control: Informal Value Transfer Systems and Computational Analysis in Institutional Economics

This article illustrates the usefulness of computational methods for the investigation of institutions. As an example, we use a computational agent-based model to study the role of general trust and social control in informal value transfer systems (IVTS). We find that the terms of interaction between general trust and social control have an impact on how IVTS work, become stable, and prove highly effective. The case shows how computational models may help (i) to operationalize institutional theory and to clarify the functioning of institutions; (ii) to test the logical consistency of alternative hypotheses about institutions; and (iii) to relate institutionalist theory with other paradigms and to practice an interested pluralism.     

Psychology at work

We compare three wage–effort psychological games. In the first game, the agent’s motivation hinges on a degree of altruism influenced by the surprise generated by the principal’s wage offer. The agent works harder when the wage is greater than expected and vice versa when the wage is smaller than expected. Consistent equilibrium beliefs oblige the principal to randomize in order to surprise the agent, which results in the principal being worse off than if she were dealing with an unemotional agent. We then consider an intention-based reciprocity model and a model of guilt aversion. We find that guilt aversion may potentially yield the best outcome for the principal.     

Climate Change Mitigation with Technology Spillovers

We explore the implications of an increase in clean technology spillovers between developed and developing countries. We build a game of abatements in which players are linked with technology spillovers determined by an initial choice of absorptive capacities by developing countries. We show that, within a non-cooperative framework, the response of clean technology investments in developed countries to an increase in cross-country technology spillovers is ambiguous. If the marginal benefits of these additional abatements are not sufficiently high, developed countries have a strategic incentive to decrease investments. Such a strategic response jeopardizes the initial effects of an increase in technology spillovers on climate change mitigation and decreases the incentives for developing countries to enhance their absorptive capacities.     

Power learning: racing ahead of your competition

Adhering to accepted practices, not wanting to rock the boat, and squelching dissenting opinions sentence organizations to a repetition of their mistakes. To be successful, organizations must continually learn. Organizations that learn are competitive. They are on the leading edge. They create their own futures instead of being created by their futures. The objective of this article is to present a new approach to learning that greatly enhances the quality of training and educational programs. The key subjects include learning styles, left and right brain processing, and the 4MAT System. In addition, two brief case studies are presented.     

AIDS-Hilfe in Afrika

Tansanische Krankenschwestern im mobilen Einsatz — Tansania ist eines der ?rmsten L?nder der Erde. Und nur in drei L?ndern weltweit gibt es mehr HIV-Infizierte. Mit internationaler Hilfe werden in vielen Regionen Versorgungsprojekte initiiert und Therapiezentren gegründet. Seit 2007 gibt es au?erdem ein nationales HIV-Programm. Dadurch gelingt es, das Tabu um HIV langsam aufzubrechen. Doch der Weg zur Eind?mmung der Epidemie ist mühsam.     

Using vignettes to study family consumption processes

The use of vignettes for qualitative consumer research is discussed in this article. More specifically, vignettes are proposed as a useful research technique for conducting systematic and rigorous studies of consumer interaction processes, in particular as these relate to family consumption issues. Following an overview of methodological and practical problems of studying consumption interaction processes in families, a discussion of how vignettes may be used to enhance knowledge of family decision‐making processes in real‐life contexts is presented. Design implications are discussed and strategies for applying the vignette method are outlined and illustrated by two recent studies of pro‐environmental consumer behavior in a family context. The paper concludes with a discussion of the benefits and the possible pitfalls of using vignettes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.