‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.     

The impact of a changing financial climate on a UK local charitable sector: voices from the front line

Forced to compete with private and public sector providers, charities experience tensions as the quest for a more commercially-oriented position may conflict with their social imperative. Little attention has been given to understanding the experiences of local charities as service providers. This paper captures the reactions of those working on the charity front line.     

Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

Sensitivity Analysis And Schemes Of Arrangement

Formal mathematical techniques are being used increasingly as aids to commercial decision-making. We propose that those deciding whether to liquidate or trade-out should, as a matter of course, have sufficient information to enable sensitivity analysis on any forecast returns. Sensitivity analyses are notably lacking in documentation used for predicting the outcomes of schemes of arrangement such as the complex Estate Mortgage Trusts (EMT) moratorium on the withdrawal of funds by unitholders. This article details the outcomes of some schemes of arrangement in Australia in the 1960s and 1970s and discusses the EMT moratorium. The moratorium procedures provide the setting and data for simulations and sensitivity analyses. Coupled with the evidence provided by Dean (1977, 1983) and Aitken (1981), this suggests a need for information on the expected timing of payouts to enable sensitivity analysis whenever a scheme involves delayed distributions.