HERD SIZE AND UNIT COSTS OF PRODUCTION IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR

This paper examines the relationship between herd size and unit costs of production in the England and Wales dairy sector. Following the two-stage estimation procedure of Dawson & Hubbard (1987), longrun average cost (LAC) functions are estimated from cross-section data for five separate years between 1976/7 and 1986/7. Results show that the LAC curves are U-shaped but highly skewed, implying that considerable economies of size are present at low output levels but diseconomies at larger levels are much less marked. Over time, technological change in particular has been shifting the LAC curves downward and to the right and away from the sector's long-run equilibrium. The differential shift of cost curves, depending on the size of production, implies that technological change has been biased in favour of larger herds.     

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.     

Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings*

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life‐cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. We find empirical support for this effect using a cross‐country panel of national savings rates.     

Do We Have a Redundant Set of Cost–Efficiency Targets in the NHS?

There has been a long history of hospital trust cost–efficiency targets being used in the National Health Service (NHS), but there is little evidence about whether they are effective in reducing hospital unit costs and reducing the dispersion of unit costs between trusts. In 1997, the new Labour government announced that it would replace the purchaser efficiency index with a new approach to securing cost–efficiency gains from trusts. Since 1999/2000 trust efficiency targets have been based on reference costs. This article presents evidence to suggest that efficiency targets have not been effective and that the new reference cost based system of targets is irrelevant. The efficiency gains that trusts seek to achieve are those that emerge from the purchaser funding formula and the contracting process.     

Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization

By the end of January 2001, all NYSE stocks had converted their price quotations from 1/8s and 1/16s to decimals. This study examines the effect of this change in price quotations on ex‐dividend day activity. We find that abnormal ex‐dividend day returns increase in the 1/16 and decimal pricing eras, relative to the 1/8 era, which is inconsistent with microstructure explanations of ex‐day price movements. We also find that abnormal returns increase in conjunction with a May 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate, as they should if relative taxation of dividends and capital gains affects ex‐day pricing.     

The Organization of Innovation Brokers: An International Review

Research on networks of innovation has typically focused on relationships of competition and collaboration between firms in the network, sometimes extending the analysis to sources of new ideas such as universities. More recently, attention has been paid to the activities of intermediaries in such networks, which facilitate the innovation process, which are positioned between the sources and users of innovations. This paper focuses on the organization of a distinctive type of intermediary, which we have defined as an innovation broker, by providing an analysis of 10 case studies of organizations dedicated to innovation broking from around the world. Innovation brokers in our definition are organizations that are founded especially to undertake an intermediary role, rather than performing that role as a by-product of their principal activities. The results of this analysis suggest that the key role played by innovation brokers in the innovation process is the independent validation of new ideas, thereby facilitating diffusion. In order to carry out this task, innovation brokers are organized on a not-for-profit basis, typically as a public-private partnership. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for innovation theory and research in networks of innovation.     

The Emergence of Post-Suburban Landscapes on the North Coast of New South Wales: A Case Study of Contested Space

Since 1980, population trends in Australia have indicated new patterns of urbanization involving substantial growth not only in the dominant conurbations, but also in suburban areas and in an extensive coastal zone (Paris, 1994). Comparisons can be made with the emergence of post-suburban forms and processes in other parts of the world (Kling et. al., 1991). The principal aim of this paper is to present an analysis of some of the major local development conflicts and planning and environmental protection issues that are being faced by developers, planners and local communities as the urban restructuring of Australia takes place. The paper draws on evidence of urbanization on the upper North Coast of New South Wales and provides a detailed examination of two shires in the region — Ballina and Byron — where a study was carried out by the authors in 1994 and 1995. Previous research on the population and development trends in Australia is reviewed to provide a context within which the patterns in New South Wales and its North Coast may be placed, and a discussion is presented of the implications of new development with reference to Ballina Shire and Byron Shire. The usefulness of the postfordist model as an explanatory framework for examining these post-suburban landscapes and contested space issues on the North Coast of NSW is also explored.     

Measuring the Volatility of Wheat Futures Prices on the LIFFE

Agricultural prices rose dramatically in 2007 and have subsequently fluctuated at high levels. This paper estimates the volatility of daily wheat futures prices on the Euronext/London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange for 1996–2012 using an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with a constant (price) elasticity of variance (CEV) and a broken trend. Results show that volatility is highly persistent; there is a structural break in volatility in June 2007 when volatility rose by 10%; subsequently, the wheat futures price has become more volatile; and the CEV is 0.04.