Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions

This paper considers the problem of constructing confidence sets for the date of a single break in a linear time series regression. We establish analytically and by small sample simulation that the current standard method in econometrics for constructing such confidence intervals has a coverage rate far below nominal levels when breaks are of moderate magnitude. Given that breaks of moderate magnitude are a theoretically and empirically relevant phenomenon, we proceed to develop an appropriate alternative. We suggest constructing confidence sets by inverting a sequence of tests. Each of the tests maintains a specific break date under the null hypothesis, and rejects when a break occurs elsewhere. By inverting a certain variant of a locally best invariant test, we ensure that the asymptotic critical value does not depend on the maintained break date. A valid confidence set can hence be obtained by assessing which of the sequence of test statistics exceeds a single number.     

The quiet drug revolution

Routine approval of new products often requires a decade. But in a little-noticed change, people who are gravely ill can get breakthrough medicines much faster.     

An essay on organizational citizenship behavior

This article advocates a more comprehensive understanding of job performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) than that employed by earlier researchers on those topics. Using the intellectual heritage of the word citizenship from political philosophy and related disciplines, OCB is positioned as the organizational equivalent of citizen responsibilities, of which there are three categories: obedience, loyalty, and political participation. Two other key citizenship concepts, relational ties and citizen rights, are described, and a set of ten research propositions is offered relating the citizenship concepts to one another. Suggestions for other areas of investigation are also provided. Finally, the advantages of using OCB as a global measure of individual behavior at work are defended.     

SATELLITE TELEVISION AND THE DEMAND FOR FOOTBALL: A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME?

A recent development in the UK television industry has been the emergence of satellite coverage of sporting events. This paper examines the relationship between broadcasting and football, culminating in the 1992 joint BBC and BSkyB contract to televise the English Premier League. A demand function is estimated which exteds the familiar model of attendance to incorporate television together with quadratic functions. We find that, although live transmission reduces attendance, the net financial consequences are positive for Premier League teams. Moreover, significant estimators are found for the quadratic functions of pricel earnings, distance, seasonal trend and length of Premier League status.     

中国公司如何突破在美国投资的“围城”

20世纪80年代,日本的公司大量吞并美国公司和资产,美国国会的成员、各种商业联盟的领袖以及企业的领导者都开始大声疾呼,“日本人来了”!尽管在美国的经济发展历史上,尤其是在19世纪70年代到1914年的后工业革命时期,国外的投资者扮演了重要的角色,评论家们还是发出警告：当日本投资者来到美国的时候,情况是不同的。当     

Unintended trajectories: liberalization and the geographies of private business flight

The global commercial aviation industry has undergone significant regulatory reform during the last 30 years. This paper explores something of the relationship between air transport liberalization and the growth of private business aviation and suggests that the sector’s development is largely an unintended consequence of the increasingly deregulated operating environment in that it has developed to overcome some of liberalization’s negative impacts, including delays, congestion, and perceptions of poor customer service. We argue that liberalization has created innovative market opportunities for private business aviation and illustrate how the sector’s operating models are facilitating new, as yet largely undocumented, forms of aerial mobility. The paper examines: the advantages of private business aviation over scheduled services; business strategies in the sector, especially the idea of fractional jets; the impact of new technologies, particularly the Very Light Jet (VLJ); and, finally, employs Europe as an example of the spatialities of private business aviation.     

Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis

We apply the three-dimensional analysis of wavelet coherency to examine the integration of 22 emerging stock markets with the U.S. market. We find a high degree of co-movement at relatively lower frequencies between the U.S. and the 22 individual emerging markets. Our results show that the strength of co-movement, however, differs by country. For example, we report a high degree of co-movement between the U.S. and Brazil, Mexico and Korea, but low co-movement with and Egypt and Morocco. Our analyses also document a general change in the pattern of the market relationship after 2006, where we detect co-movements at relatively higher frequencies. Co-movement at the highest frequencies is, however, weak for fluctuations with duration less than a year. Our findings imply that investing selectively in emerging markets may provide significant diversification benefits which, invariably, depend on the investment horizon.