Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

What would Don Draper do? Rules for restoring the contemporary agency mojo

What are the timeless truths of advertising? How can agency leaders manage their teams, their creative talent, and clients? To answer these and other questions, the mythology of the ‘Golden Age of Advertising’ is examined and analyzed herein. Specifically, using ad man Don Draper—protagonist of the fictional, but already culturally iconic, television series Mad Men—as a mythic archetype, lessons are extracted for contemporary advertising practitioners. Ten timeless rules are proposed and explicated in the areas of (1) managing intra-agency leadership processes, (2) managing creative processes, and (3) managing client relationships.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

Commissioning of CIL's ammonia II plant

Special features of this process design contributed to fast start-up, including the role of the computer simulator for training purposes and the concept of commissioning by process test system.     

Optimal Flex Cropping and Storage of Spring Wheat under a Progressive Income Tax

This article presents two versions of a stochastic dynamic programming model: one version is used to obtain the optimal decision rule for flex cropping of spring wheat assuming sale of grain at harvest, while the second version is used to obtain the jointly optimal decision rule for flex cropping and storage of spring wheat. The objective function for the model is the expected present value of after-tax income. The first version of the model illustrates that the flex cropping strategy that maximizes the present value of after-tax income differs from the strategy that maximizes the present value of before-tax income. The second model illustrates that production and grain-storage marketing decision rules are inseparable under a progressive income tax. That is, the optimal flex cropping strategy assuming sale of grain at harvest differs substantially from the flex cropping strategy when grain storage is permitted. L'article propose deux versions d'un modèle de programmation dynamique stochastique: I'une est utilisée pour obtenir la décision optimale d'emblaver ou non en blé de printemps en prévision de la vente du grain à la moisson, I'autre recherchant une décision optimale d'assolement du blé avec intention de stocker à la récolte. La fonction objective du modèle est la valeur actuelle attendue du revenu après taxe. La première version révéle que la stratégic d'assolement axée sur une valeur actuelle maximale après imposition, diffère de celle qui est axée sur la valeur actuelle du revenu avant impostion. Le second modèle montre que les décisions de production et de vente ou de stockage du grain sont inséparables dans un régime d'imposition progressive. C'est-à-dire que la stratégie optimale axée sur la vente à la moisson est sensiblement différente de celle qui suppose le stockage du grain à la récolte.     

Nonf arm Labor Market Participation of Farm Women

Structural changes in Saskatchewan agriculture have led to significant changes in the time allocation of labor of farm women. This paper analyzes the nonfarm labor market participation and labor supply of farm women in the theoretical context of a household production function and contrasts them with those of men. Participation is analyzed using probit models, and nonfarm labor supply functions are estimated using tobit models. Personal characteristics such as age, education, number of children and nonfarm labor participation of the spouse are significantly related to the nonfarm labor market participation and labor supply of farm women, and the direction of influence is as expected. Farm characteristics such as farm size and type are significant in the case of males but not for females. Labor market characteristics are represented only by distance to the nearest center of Complete Shopping Center status or higher and, while this variable is negatively significant for males as expected, it is not significant for females Les changements structurels qui on frappé l'agriculture de la Saskatchewan ont entraîné des modifications significatives à la répartition du temps des agricultrices en matière de travail. L'article présente une analyse de la participation au marché du travail non agricole, ainsi que de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre des agricultrices, dans le contexte théorique d'une fonction de production de ménage, en comparaison avec la situation observée chez les hommes. Le degré de participation e'tait analysé à partir de modèles probit et les fonctions d'offre de main-d'oeuvre non agricole étaient estimées à partir de modéles tobit. Les caractères personnels comme l'âge, I'instruction, le nombre d'enfants et la participation du conjoint à un travail non agricole étaient significativement reliés, dans le sens attendu, à la participation des femmes au marché du travail non agricole et au temps qu'elles pouvaient y consacrer. Les caractères de l'exploitation, superficie et type, n'étaient significatifs que pour les hommes mais pas pour les femmes. Le seul caractére du marché de main-d'oeuvre considéré était la distance entre la ferme et l'agglomération la plus proche de niveau de centre commercial complet ou de niveau supérieur. Bien que, comme on pouvait s'y attendre, cette variable était significativement négative dans le cas des hommes, elle n'avait pas de valeur significative pour les femmes     

Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility

Many of the key macro-economic and financial variables in developed economies are characterized by permanent volatility shifts. It is known that conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of such behaviour, depending on a particular function (the variance profile) of the underlying volatility process. Somewhat surprisingly then, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which are robust to the presence of permanent volatility shifts. In this paper we fill this gap in the literature by proposing tests which are valid in the presence of a quite general class of permanent variance changes which includes single and multiple (abrupt and smooth-transition) volatility change processes as special cases. Our solution uses numerical methods to simulate the asymptotic null distribution of the statistics based on a consistent estimate of the variance profile which we also develop. The practitioner is not required to specify a parametric model for volatility. An empirical illustration using producer price inflation series from the Stock–Watson database is reported.     

An innovation to improve health outcomes in Amajuba district,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Systems’ thinking places high value on understanding the context. This study focused on the collection of disaggregated data in order to understand the context, to facilitate improvement of health outcomes. The aim of this article was to assess the implementation of municipal ward-based health data collection (disaggregated data) and health care workers’ perceptions of this data collection process. This cross-sectional study used mixed methods in Amajuba district. The participants were professional nurses at the Primary Health Care level. Of the 131 respondents, 123 (93.9%) collected municipal ward-based health data, and found it useful. Opportunities for improving data collection were identified. Disaggregation of the data at ward level contributes to a better understanding of the target population’s health, assists planning for health needs and enables provision of targeted interventions in order to improve health outcomes, to prevent financial regression and waste of health resources.