Bank stock performance and bank regulation around the globe

We analyze the effect of bank capital, regulation, and supervision on the annual stock performance of global banks during the period of 1999–2012. We study a large comprehensive panel of international banks and find that higher Tier 1 capital decreases a bank's stock performance over the whole sample period. However, during turbulent times stocks of more highly capitalized banks perform significantly better. Additionally, we find strong evidence that banks that are more likely to receive government bailout during financial distress realize smaller stock performance. In contrast, we find no convincing evidence that banks that generate higher non-interest income have a higher performance.     

Kuruvilla—the Political Economy of Industrialisation and Industrial Relations: a Comment

Kuruvilla, drawing upon the experience of countries in South and South East Asia, found a clear and positive association between the stages and types of industrialisation and the systems and forms of industrial relations. In this rejoinder Gall, though partly sympathetic to the thesis, argues that Kuruvilla fails to give sufficient weight to the contingencies of political economy, ie. The role of the state and, in particular, the political process.     

Economic Valuation of the Threat Posed by the Establishment of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Australia

Invasive species policy could be better informed if we understood how much people value reductions in the risks posed by these organisms. This study investigates the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for additional measures to reduce the risk of invasion of the Australian mainland by the Asian tiger mosquito (ATM). The study contributes to the literature by applying a stated preference method to estimate the public’s WTP to reduce the risk of an ATM invasion, expressed as a change in probability. It is the first ex ante invasive species analysis to test over two discrete invasion reduction probabilities based on management effort. Further, to overcome the challenges in valuing changes in probabilities, the study presented respondents with a well-defined discrete difference in the final probability, with one scenario reducing risk from 50 to 25% and the other from 50 to 5%. We find a significant difference in the mean WTP values between these two scenarios (A$67 vs. A$90). The overall conclusion is that estimated benefits of reducing the probability of an ATM incursion outweigh the costs.     

The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

This paper analyzes observed prices of US temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Results show that an index modeling approach without detrending captures the prices exceptionally well. Moreover, weather forecasts significantly influence prices up to 11 days ahead. It is shown that valuations of temperature futures relying on a model without detrending yield biased valuations by overpricing winter contracts and underpricing summer contracts. Several trading strategies are devised to exploit the mispricing observed at the CME and to demonstrate that speculating on temperature futures can not only generate high overall returns, but also perform well on a risk-adjusted basis.     

Grundfreibetrag und Einkommensteuertarif — eine Trennung ist möglich

The basic allowance of the german income tax system is designed to ensure that the minimum subsistence level is not taxed. According to German income tax law, the basic allowance is not deducted from income. Instead, the tax schedule has a zero-rated bracket. Thus, the income tax schedule has a dual function: it determines the tax burden and exempts the subsistence level from taxation. This paper proposes extracting the zero-rated bracket from the tax schedule and deducting a basic allowance directly from income instead. Such a direct deduction of the basic allowance from income would make the constitutionally required exemption of the subsistence level more transparent. At the same time, an independent basic allowance could be increased more easily, without having to change the entire tax schedule.     

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

The European debt crisis has revealed severe imbalances within the Euro area, sparking a debate about the magnitude of those imbalances, in particular concerning real effective exchange rate misalignments. We use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member state in order to identify the degree of these misalignments. We find that crisis countries are best described as a combination of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual real effective exchange rate with those of the counterfactuals gives evidence of misalignments before the outbreak of the crisis: all peripheral countries appear strongly and significantly overvalued.     

The wages of social responsibility — where are they? A critical review of ESG investing

This paper contributes both to investigating the link between the corporate social and financial performance based on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) ratings and to reviewing the existing empirical evidence pertaining to this relationship. The sample used includes ESG data of ASSET4, Bloomberg and KLD for the U.S. market from 1991 to 2012. The econometrical framework applies an ESG portfolio approach using the Carhart (1997) four-factor model as well as cross-sectional Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions. Previous empirical research indicates a relationship between ESG ratings and returns. As against this, the ESG portfolios do not state a significant return difference between companies with high and low ESG ratings. Although the Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions reveal a significant influence of several ESG variables, investors are hardly able to exploit this relationship. The magnitude and direction of the impact are substantially dependent on the rating provider, the company sample and the particular subperiod. The results suggest that investors should no longer expect abnormal returns by trading a difference portfolio of high and low rated firms with regard to ESG aspects.     

Optimal Environmental Taxation with Capital Mobility*

Climate policy exemptions for energy‐intensive sectors are often justified with distributional concerns. One concern is that households employed in energy‐intensive sectors might be affected disproportionally because of (international) capital mobility. By assuming that workers cannot move freely between sectors, we can reproduce this concern: uniform climate policy causes more inequality between the sectors when capital is mobile than when it is not. However, we find that affected households can be relieved more effectively with sector‐specific labour taxes than with sector‐specific climate policy. The reason for this finding is that households benefit more directly from sector‐specific labour tax cuts than from climate policy exemptions. Keeping climate policy uniform across sectors has the added benefit of creating incentives for long‐term decarbonisation. In addition, we find that the differential effect of capital mobility depends on the government's degree of inequality aversion – redistribution is more expensive when capital is mobile.     

Tradeoffs of foreign assistance for the weakest-link global public goods

Weakest-link global public goods, such as international security, communicable disease prevention or illegal trafficking control, create a strong incentive for rich countries to unilaterally compensate for insufficient supplies of the ‘weakest-link’ inputs by poor countries. We analyze how foreign assistance affects the donor and recipient countries, accounting for discontinuities and non-monotonicities originating from switches between structurally different equilibrium profiles. We show that voluntary foreign assistance improves provision of the public good and also welfare, but makes the donor country worse off for the medium level of income inequality. Unless inequality is large or small, a rich country may benefit from a commitment to the absence of assistance.