Expectations in Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Application of the Prisoner's Dilemma

The standard account of Austrian Business Cycle theory posits that central bank manipulations of interest rates fool bankers and investors into believing that there has been an increase in the real supply of loanable funds available for capital investment. However, reliance on foolishness ignores the entrepreneurial emphasis within the Austrian tradition and fails to produce the strongest possible case for Austrian Business Cycle theory. We use the prisoner's dilemma framework to model the profit maximizing behavior of bankers and the investors under uncertainty when the market rate of interest is below the underlying rate of time preference.     

An Insiders' View of FCC Spectrum Auctions

After a long period of awarding spectrum licenses inefficiently, changes in the budget and budgetary process coupled with increases in the value of the spectrum for non-broadcast use led Congress to allow the Federal Communications Commission to award licenses through competitive bidding. Contrary to the perceived view of government bureaucracies as excessively cautious, the FCC used the newfound authority to adopt a novel approach to auction design—simultaneous multiple round auctions. The innovative auction design would not have been adopted without the successful collaboration between government economists and academic economists, who helped to formulate and refine the design so that decision makers at the FCC could be convinced that the novel technique was both superior and practical. The FCCs implementation of competitive bidding was not only rapid as mandated by Congress, but also much less costly than outside alternatives and allowed the integration of spectrum policy decisions and auction design. Experience from several auctions has led to a number of open questions and refinements. The FCC is trying to replicate the success with the original auction design by facilitating dialog between the agency and outside auction experts in order to address these issues.     

Provision Point Mechanisms and Field Validity Tests of Contingent Valuation

Past field validity tests of contingent valuation have relied on voluntary contribution mechanisms to elicit actual willingness to pay, and may overestimate hypothetical bias because of free riding in the actual contributions. This paper argues that provision point mechanisms are a preferred alternative for field validity tests of contingent valuation because they increase the proportion of demand revealed in cases in which public goods can be provided in a step function. The results of a contingent valuation validity study of participation in a green electricity pricing program that uses a provision point mechanism are reported, and hypothetical open-ended and dichotomous choice responses are compared to actual participation. Calibration of hypothetical responses is also explored.     

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

Unemployment Duration and Inflows onto the Disability Support Pension Program: Evidence from FaCS LDS Data

From the administrative data of the Australian Department of Family and Community Services it is found that a large proportion of Disability Support Pension (DSP) recipients transferred from unemployment benefits. Among those who transferred to DSP from unemployment benefits, a large proportion experienced multiple spells of income support receipt prior to the transition and a majority had more than a half‐year pre‐transition unemployment duration, with the average pre‐transition unemployment duration being more than one year. These findings suggest that the unemployment benefit is not simply a‘hold‐on’ benefit for those who experienced the unemployment—DSP transition. This article further examines what factors are associated with the transition. It is found that, among other things, the probability of transition to DSP from unemployment increases with duration on unemployment benefits.     

Institutional Dynamics on the U.S. Court of Appeals: Minority Representation Under Panel Decision Making

This article assesses how the institutional context of decisionmaking on three-judge panels of the federal Court of Appealsaffects the impact that gender and race have on judicial decisions.Our central question is whether and how racial minority andwomen judges influence legal policy on issues thought to beof particular concern to women and minorities when serving onappellate panels which decide cases by majority rule. Properanalysis of this question requires investigating whether womenand minority judges influence the decisions of other panel members.We find that the norm of unanimity on panels grants women influenceover outcomes even when they are outnumbered on a panel.