感受和展望

中国商业经济学会商品储存养护技术研究分会在今年五月就五十周岁了。五十年来研究会在市场经济的大潮中，既历经了更名和转化研究对象的磨炼和历届领导的更替，更历经了改革浪潮的洗礼，在各级领导和正、副会长的正确领导下，在全体会员的共同努力下，研究会不断更新观念，与时俱进，科学运作，精心管理，正茁壮成长。作为一个从事物流（储运养护）教学与科研多年的老同志和参加研究会多年的老会员向研究会的五十周年大庆表示衷心祝贺。     

基于MATLAB的STATCOM阶梯波调制策略设计

在现代电力系统中STATCOM(静止同步补偿器)能对电力系统的无功潮流进行快速灵活的调整,从而达到提高电力系统综合稳定性的目的。文章在Matlab中搭建了基于阶梯波调制法的STATCOM的仿真模型并进行了仿真分析,阶梯波调制法是利用阶梯波逼近正弦波的原理,通过控制各个晶闸管的通断来产生相应的阶梯波,将各个H桥的阶梯波进行叠加来逼近正弦波的。     

浅谈营林生产中存在的问题及对策

本文主要从营林生产过程中存在的一些问题提出改进措施,从而达到提高营林生产生的目的。     

黑龙江省农村能源利用及生物质能发展实证研究

在分析黑龙江省农村能源利用结构、利用效率及影响农村能源利用的因素的基础上,探讨了黑龙江省发展农村生物质能源的必要性,并提出了发展农村生物质能源的建议如加强政府政策导向、坚持规划先行、科技扶持战略等,以实现生物质能源的高效利用。     

宁国市民营企业“二次创业”实现途径研究

在百年一遇的国际金融危机的调整期,唯有在危机中引导企业锐意变革,在管理、文化、体制等方面开拓创新,提高企业经营能力和控制能力,培养核心竞争能力,民营企业才能在危机过后的下一轮发展浪潮中占据优势地位。文章在揭示、剖析宁国民营企业＂二次创业＂存在的困难与挑战的基础上,对其＂二次创业＂的实现途径进行了探究,试图为宁国民营企业指明发展方向。     

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

My Way or High Way? New relationship of employer/employee and their respective ways of survival

Early in the gestation stage of the new labor contract law, the intensive debates sparked by worries and doubts prevailed, and the event of Huawei Group forcing their employees to re-apply for their jobs made this controversy reach fever pitch. When it came into effect on 1st January, 2008, confusions still bothered people of all sides: someone were on thorns about the increased cost and found wry ways to digest it, and someone were scramble to their rights and looked for shortcut to get it, etc. in particular, textile industry featuring labor-intensive will increase 20% on average in terms of cost, so how to cushion the blow and reverse adversity become prominent, what’s more, we should emancipate our mind to create profits rather than make ourselves balky with losses. Brand-building, technology application as well as expanding business abroad where with relatively cheap cost, etc, all of which can be utilized. In fact, launch of new labor contract law coupled with other polices home and aboard and materials cost increment lift the threshold of Chinese textile industry and rendered a new shuffling, so that the conception of "survival of the fittest" becomes the last straw we should grasp……     

A Bayesian Multiple Comparison Procedure for Order-Restricted Mixed Models

A Bayesian hierarchical mixed model is developed for multiple comparisons under a simple order restriction. The model facilitates inferences on the successive differences of the population means, for which we choose independent prior distributions that are mixtures of an exponential distribution and a discrete distribution with its entire mass at zero. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to obtain parameter estimates and estimates of the posterior probabilities that any two of the means are equal. The latter estimates allow one both to determine if any two means are significantly different and to test the homogeneity of all of the means. We investigate the performance of the model-based inferences with simulated data sets, focusing on parameter estimation and successive-mean comparisons using posterior probabilities. We then illustrate the utility of the model in an application based on data from a study designed to reduce lead blood concentrations in children with elevated levels. Our results show that the proposed hierarchical model can effectively unify parameter estimation, tests of hypotheses and multiple comparisons in one setting.     

Five Basic Opinions to Promote Fast and Healthy Development of the Capital Market

Shang Fulin, chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, wrote and released an article titled "Report on China Economy" and pointed out that the country has reached the target of completing reform on the longtime problem about the different privileges of the interest groups of state shares, corporate shares and common shares. Under this new arrangement, he put forward five basic opinions to promote healthy and fast development of China capital market.     

从利益相关者角度看盈余管理动因

企业是各利益相关者之间合作投资的一个项目,各利益相关者都希望从其中获得更多的回报,会计盈余信息影响以会计盈余为基础的契约的执行,对利益相关者的决策具有重要影响,对企业拥有信息优势和实质控制权的一方或多方利益相关者有可能单独或合谋实施盈余管理,谋求自身利益的最大化.