Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

This paper presents a decision-support system based on a system dynamics model designed to examine tourism management in the Galapagos Islands. A participatory approach was used to integrate the views of multiple stakeholders in the Galapagos Islands and to build an understandable, graphical representation of the impacts of tourism and residential population growth. Each subsystem is examined through hypotheses involving three scenarios of tourism growth that are associated with different residential population expansions. A number of integrative and linked social-ecological effects in our model have been shown to severely shock the natural environment of the Galapagos and saturate the capacity of several socio-economic subsystems. Major concerns of the expanding human dimension in the Galapagos are represented by (1) the growing number of introduced species that threaten the Islands’ unique natural environment, and (2) the rapid saturation of the Galapagos National Park's tourism reception capacity. The model relies upon real data to specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange that are derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The presented decision-support system is a quantitative scenario-planning tool that can be used by policy-makers to achieve an enhanced understanding of the Galapagos Islands as a coupled human–natural system.     

Children's understanding of television advertising: a qualitative approach

In this paper children's understanding of television advertising was explored using focus groups in a qualitative approach. None of the 6 year olds, a minority of the 8 year olds and by no means all of the 10 year olds were able to articulate an understanding of the persuasive nature of advertising. It was concluded that children's understanding of the persuasive intent of television advertising is less well developed than previously thought, challenging current marketing perspectives. These findings raise questions for European legislation, UK broadcasting practices and for advertisers and manufacturers who target children.     

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When are Options Overpriced? The Black--Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel

An important determinant of option prices is the elasticityof the pricing kernel used to price all claims in the economy.In this paper, we first show that for a given forward priceof the underlying asset, option prices are higher when the elasticityof the pricing kernel is declining than when it is constant.We then investigate the implications of the elasticity of thepricing kernel for the stochastic process followed by the underlyingasset. Given that the underlying information process followsa geometric Brownian motion, we demonstrate that constant elasticityof the pricing kernel is equivalent to a Brownian motion forthe forward price of the underlying asset, so that the Black–Scholesformula correctly prices options on the asset. In contrast,declining elasticity implies that the forward price processis no longer a Brownian motion: it has higher volatility andexhibits autocorrelation. In this case, the Black–Scholesformula underprices all options.     

Politische »Kultur«

The presentation of cultural topics in the feature pages of German newspapers did change much during the past two decades. Above all, the »policialization« of cultural news coverage leaps to the eye. Nevertheless, there can be no talk of basically new cultural pages. This is demonstrated by a longitudinal analysis of four daily newspapers within the period of 1983 to 2003. The journalistic offer in the feature pages of all four newspapers has not been reduced but instead it has been strongly extended. The amount of articles as well as their size has increased considerably. »Politics« has become the most important topic. In 2003, its share of all topics is 15 percent, but it does by no means supersede the classical topics like theatre, music, the fine arts and literature. With a share of about 50 percent, those topics still are the core of cultural news coverage. Obviously, journalists are more open to popular and entertaining forms where musical topics are concerned compare to, e. g., the theatre. The most frequent genre in the feature pages in 2003 is undisputably still the review. An »end of the critique« in favor of strongly personalizing, entertainment and service-accentuated forms of presentation cannot be proven.