No significant service gap between west Germany and the USA

Conclusions The analyses show that a significant “services gap” does not exist between west Germany and the USA. Such a gap is not even evident in the area of low-skill service activities, such as in catering, once the marginal employment relations — the importance of which is understated by the official statistics — are included. This finding invalidates the empirical basis for economic policy proposals for an expansion of employment in service branches as a way out of the employment crisis. It is evident that a solution to Germany's current employment problems can only be found in a strategy that increases the scope for employment at the macro-economic level, i.e. irrespective of sectoral developments and whatever the implications of this for the distribution of the various types of activity. Having said this, the heavy bias in the output structure of the German economy in favour of industrial output suggests that an additional employment potential does exist in services, especially personal services.     

A note on tariffication strategy cases in telecommunications

The tariff policy of a telecommunication operator has a strategic importance on achieving optimal revenues and a fundamental impact on its position in the competition with other operators on the liberalised telecommunication market. The payment for a connection through a telecommunication network may be determined by a rate for one call unit, by the duration of the call unit and their count during a call. An operator derives the rate and the duration of the call unit from a detailed analysis of large databases that contain statistical data on counts and duration of particular calls depending on the type of call. Usually only the operator knows these data files and keeps them confidential. In this note we show how it is possible to estimate revenues from telecommunication traffic only knowing a set of basic parameters.     

„Wahrscheinlichkeitslernen“ in der statistischen Lerntheorie

Zusammenfassung In diesem Beitrag zur statistischen Lerntheorie (Stimulus Sampling Theorie) wird einN-elementiges „Pattern“-Modell mitr verfügbaren Antworten und nichtkontingenter Verst?rkungsvorschrift diskutiert. Um von der lerntheoretischen Literatur nicht zu sehr abh?ngig zu sein, wird zun?chst ein kanpper überblick über die Grundbegriffe der Stimulus Sampling Theorie gegeben. Der Vorgang des „Wahrscheinlichkeitslernens“ wird mittels des Reiz-Antwort-Schemas der statistischen Lerntheorie erkl?rt. Durch die Einführung der sogenannten bedingenden Zust?nde gelangt die Theorie derMarkovketten zur Anwendung. Schlie?lich wird das Problem der übereinstimmung von empirischen Daten aus Lernexperimenten mit den aus der Theorie abgeleiteten anhand von Sequentialstatistiken studiert.

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Summary In this contribution to the statistical learning theory (stimulus sampling theory) aN-element pattern model withr availables responses and noncontingent reinforcement schedule is discussed. First a short survey of the principles of the stimulus sampling theory is given. The process of „probability learning“ is explained by the stimulus-response model of the statistical theory of learning. By the introduction of the so-called conditioning states the theory ofMarkov chains may be applicated. Finaly, the goodness-of-fit between empirical data of learning experiments and predicted statistics is studied on the basis of sequential predictions.

     

Energy crisis and new international equilibrium

The author discusses the short-term and long-term aspects of the present energy crisis. He describes the various scenarios for the immediate future and the long run that could be given place by the emerging hold of OPEC over the oil consuming countries.     

Assessing Aggregate Structural Change

The aim of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Italian aggregate structural change over the years 1965–85. We use annual input–output (IO) tables in current and constant prices to derive an aggregate index of structural change. We adopt several techniques for such an explorative analysis. First, we borrow from qualitative matrix analysis and graph theory some basic concepts to assess direct and indirect links among sectors, and interrelatedness measures are derived in a straightforward way. However, qualitative analysis of indirect links may be flawed, since it can establish a path that is quantitatively negligible. Then, we turn our attention to a non-standard quantitative index derived from structural path analysis, expressed by a simple function of the input matrix determinant. Since empirical findings indicate a structural break in 1975, we derive another measure of technical change: the dominant eigenvalue. Such an index has several interesting properties but no clear relationship to the circularity process implicit in the Leontief model. Results for constant- and actual-price IO tables are discussed and compared with main macro-economic variables over the sample. Empirical findings indicate a relationship between investment, variability in final demand and aggregate structural change.     

Decentralisation in Indonesia

This paper attempts to assess the extent of decentralisation efforts and their impact on various dimensions of the development process. We find relatively little ‘real’ decentralisation (devolution): local governments have little tax autonomy and central priorities tightly constrain most funding from the centre. Indeed, increased revenue flows serve as a disincentive to modest local tax efforts, reduce the relative importance of locally controlled funds and thus retard real decentralisation. Central transfers for health, education and infrastructure have nonetheless significantly improved social and economic indicators. Greater local control over funds is found to lead to more expenditure on the social sectors (and within them on priority areas), and to increase spending on small scale locally oriented infrastructure. More decentralisation thus offers the potential for increased allocations to social and economic priorities, enhancing efficiency and equity within regions; but the promotion of national standards and equity across regions requires central government action.