Fuzzy Negotiation Solutions of n-Person Cooperative Games by Knowledge Engineering in Bargaining

A model for negotiation is developed upon the basis of a previous model called Fuzzy Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering. The new model, called Compensatory Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering and FNSKE are based on the combination of knowledge of experts in negotiation, rather than on classical notions of rationality. The experts in negotiation present four propositions in a non-mathematical way and with a natural language, according to the theory of Knowledge Engineering. In the CNSKE model, knowledge is represented through logic predicates, and the calculations are made using the Compensatory Fuzzy Logic system. CFL is a system whose operators satisfy the axioms of Utility. The CFL operators, especially because of the compensation property, are more adequate than the norm and co-norm’s operators to model human decision-making, according to empirical results. The Good Deal Index in CNSKE is statistically estimated from the GDI in FNSKE. This is a quantitative index, which provides the solution concept. The fuzzy function f(C) represents the likelihood the players of a coalition C to reach an agreement into this coalition. Counterpart Convenience Indexes 1, 2 allow each player to select the best coalition for negotiation. The advantage of CNSKE over FNSKE is that the idempotency of conjunction and disjunction operators give every membership function -obtained from the predicates- the possibility to be interpreted by itself. Hence, the truth-values of the CNSKE membership functions can be semantically interpreted. In addition, CNSKE can be easily applied to solve real negotiation problems.     

Environmental Motivations: The Pathway to Complete Environmental Management

The aim of this research is to ascertain whether a firm’s environmental motivations may help to predict how complete or incomplete its environmental management will be, understanding incomplete management to be that which neglects one or more of the three keys aspects of such management, namely, monitoring, action and results. We specifically posit that while motivations based on the search for legitimation lead to more incomplete styles of environmental management, competitive motivations entail a more complete management. The analyses conducted with a sample of 1,902 plants provide empirical evidence in favour of such reasoning. The contribution this research makes, therefore, is not restricted solely to showing the effect motivations have on the environmental performance of organisations, as it also introduces a new dimension of environmental management—the degree of completeness, which needs to be considered when understanding and evaluating this effect.     

Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?

The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil‐specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.     

Análisis del servicio de Urgencias aplicando teoría de líneas de espera

Those responsible for making decisions in hospitals are increasingly aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. An option for analysis is done by queuing models. In this paper is analyzed the service area ER, in a public hospital applying the concepts and relationships of waiting lines. From the model results, it is concluded that in the emergency department does not have the required minimum number of doctors to allow a steady flow of patients. With the model, the minimum required number of doctors is calculated to meet current and future demand for service with the same service time and the same discipline of service. Analytical models, allowing direct understand the relationships between service demand, number of doctors and patient care priority viewed as a queuing system. The work is useful for administrators and managers of hospital systems.     

Independent boards and innovation

Much research has suggested that independent boards of directors are more effective in reducing agency costs and improving firm governance. How they influence innovation is less clear. Relying on regulatory changes, we show that firms that transition to independent boards focus on more crowded and familiar areas of technology. They patent and claim more and receive more total future citations to their patents. However, the citation increase comes mainly from incremental patents in the middle of the citation distribution; the numbers of uncited and highly cited patents—arguably associated with riskier innovation strategies—do not change significantly.     

Toward farm-based policy analysis: concepts applied in Haiti

Many policies – on the delivery of inputs or on marketing systems, credit, or extension – influence the potential utilization of new technologies. Through 'farm-based policy analysis' it is possible to use data generated in on-farm research (OFR) to identify policy constraints to the use of new technologies, and to effectively communicate that information to policy makers. This paper describes a tentative framework for farm-based policy analysis and suggests a sequence of five steps for the analysis: (1) identify the policy-induced constraints; (2) determine the rationale behind the policy; (3) identify the decision makers to whom the results should be communicated; (4) identify solutions or policy options; and (5) communicate results to decision makers. A case of farm-based policy analysis from Haiti illustrates the concepts and methods described in the first part of the paper. On-farm experiments in Les Cayes, Haiti, confirmed a response to nitrogen in maize, but adoption of the recommended practice and consequent gains in productivity and income were constrained by the scarcity of urea in the local market. An analysis of local supply and potential local demand for urea and the potential benefits of urea application was conducted, and results communicated to two target groups of decision makers: representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture responsible for fertilizer distribution policy, and representatives of private fertilizer enterprises. These groups responded by making larger supplies of urea available to local farmers. Adoption of the fertilizer recommendation and urea sales increased. The case demonstrates the potential value of farm-based policy analysis building upon data from OFR.     

Job Search Channels,Neighborhood Effects,and Wages Inequality in Developing Countries: The Colombian Case

This paper analyzes the relationship between social networks and the probability of finding a job. We explore geographic closeness as the social interaction to explain the job search function. Using data from Colombia in 2009, we calculate how neighborhoods have an effect on the channel used to find a job (social network versus no social network). In addition, we study how wage premium relates to using a social network in finding a job, exploring the inequality that can arise using a different job search method. Our results show that neighborhood affects the individual's job search method and that referred workers earn less at the bottom of the wage distribution with respect to non‐referred workers. Colombia presents persistent high levels of informality and inequality with the existence of spatial clusters that impose important social and economic costs with strong informational asymmetries on the job market.     

Recontextualizing Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through Archival Evidence

Abstract

Our article seeks to recontextualize Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through a reconsideration of the criticisms of the book and Ayres’s personal standpoint on it. We believe that the negative reception of the book conveys the mainstream perspective. Additionally, our article stresses some of Ayres’s thoughts on Western society that were not included in The Theory of Economic Progress but were introduced by him through correspondence around the same time his famous book was written and disseminated. We conclude that Ayres was more radical than his writings reveal.     

Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis

We use the 2007 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) crisis as a laboratory to study the determinants of debt runs. Our model features dilution risk: maturing short-term lenders demand higher yields in compensation for being diluted by future lenders, making runs more likely. The model explains the observed tenfold increase in yield spreads leading to runs and the positive relation between yield spreads and future runs. Results from structural estimation show that runs are very sensitive to leverage, asset values, and asset liquidity, but less sensitive to the degree of maturity mismatch, the strength of guarantees, and asset volatility.